Week 7: Abe’s Shitty NFL Picks (AST)

Hey everyone and welcome to another episode of me making shitty picks based on flawed science, numbies based solely on Taylor Swift’s game attendance, and mistaken logic since my current record is:

Week 1: 6 Week 2: 8 Week 3: 6 Week 4: 8 Week 5: 6 Week 6: 11

Also, need to honorably mention that fading me statistically (51.1%) gives you a way better chance of making any money from my NFL picks, hence, Abe’s Shitty NFL Picks.  So let’s try this again with the goal of trying to pick more right games than wrong ones in Week 7!

SAINTS -1*: The real issue in this Thursday Night Football Game is Trevor Lawrance (QB) being listed as questionable due to a right knee injury and this is no bueno for the JAGS. Without Trevor, the Saints will be both offensively and defensively a better team in New Orleans with the “who dat” crowd cheering them on.

 LIONS +3*: The Lions have started the season well going 5-1 playing against the 4-2 Ravens. Offensively the Lions simply have a better stack of weapons coming into this away game.  Additionally, the Lions have only allowed 64.7 rushing yards this season which will put considerable pressure on Lamar Jackson (QB) who also leads the Ravens in rushing yards to possibly throw more balls and risk an interception. The Lions have won their last four games, are hot, and hope they use this winning momentum to cover the spread or outright beat the Ravens.

RAIDERS -3*: What an absolute dumpster fire of a game is scheduled with this one as both J. Garoppolo (QB)  and J. Field (QB) are out with both teams sealing their fate with backup QBs.  I have no idea what shitstorm awaits us, but it will be very entertaining watching this dumpster fire of a game.  Either way, I expect J. Jacobs (RB) from the Raiders to get the ball a lot in this one against a Chicago Bears team that has already lost their lead rusher (K. Herbert) to the IR.  I expect the dumpster fire Raiders to crucify the dumpster fire Bears in this game.

COLTS +2.5*: As of right now, D. Watson is still questionable for this matchup and will roll the dice that he won’t play in this game, or play like a QB who’s missed a lot of practice. Either way, this should give the home-field advantage Colts another slight advantage in this game. Problems for the Colts include a strong Browns defense that might keep this game close, but offset by a weaker Browns offense. Colts to keep this game interesting at home.

BILLS -8.5*: The 4-2 Bills are simply going to kill the Patriots as the team has only been able to pull off one win against a Zach Wilson’s Jets team. Although the Patriots were able to keep the game close against the garbage Raiders in Week 6, let’s all keep in mind that the Buffalo Bills are not the Raiders.  Lastly, let’s not all forget the Patriots lost to the Saints and the Cowboys by more than 30 points and we’re only looking for 8.5 here.

COMMIES (COMMANDERS) -1.5*: The numbies show that offensively (QB, WR, RB) are simply better than the New York Giants. Let’s throw the Giants, QB D. Jones, and RB S. Barkley into the questionable list and we’re simply looking at a catastrophe in New Jersey this week.  Fortunately for us, we only need to win by 1.5 points to cash out on this bet.

FALCONS +2.5*: The Falcons may have a slightly worse record than the Bucs, but their stats show that they’ve done more than the Bucs offensively and defensively and it shows as a tight spread (see below).  Additionally, the Falcons have no injured players and are playing with a fully healthy team.  The only concern I have is D. Riddler (QB) already throwing 6 interceptions and the Bucs capitalizing on it.

Source: Falcons vs. Buccaneers (Oct 22, 2023) Live Score – ESPN

STEELERS +3*: The deciding factor in this game for me is that the Rams star RB K. Williams is out & weakening the offense of the Rams enough for the Steelers to cover the game.  However, Mathew Stafford (QB) has other options that he can use including WR P. Nacua to to keep this game in favor of the Rams.  However, Stafford has also given up 6 interceptions this season which could benefit the Steelers if he throws another one.  Lastly, the Steelers beat the AFC North Leader (Ravens) last week suggesting that they can keep the Rams in check this week.

CARDINALS +7.5*: The Seahawks are going into this home game with DK Metcalf (WR) possibly sidelined as he is still marked as questionable for this week’s game. Additionally, Metcalf has been a penalty pain in the ass for the Seahawks and could prove once again to drag his team under the penalty bus if he does play.  Little things that can slow the Seahawks enough to not cover the spread.  On the flip side, the Cardinals have been able to put up similar offensive numbies minus the injuries to keep this game closer than the Seahawks would like.

PACKERS -1*: Looks like we have another pick’em game against two teams that have lost more games than won this season, and boy do we have garbage against garbage here. The only real difference in this game is that both A. Dillion (RB) and A. Jones (RB) for the Packers could be suited up for this one.  Unfortunately, we do not really know about A. Jones until 90 minutes before the game. Either way, the well-rested Packers are facing a Broncos team that has given up more than 458 yards this season which could favor them in this one.

CHIEFS -5.5*: The Chargers just played on Monday and will be back at it in less than a week after losing to the Cowboys.  This time they’re walking into another brutal game against the Chiefs who’ve had the luxury of 4 additional rest days and a better defense.  That being said, the Chargers and Chiefs are evenly matched offensively and the Chargers have been able to keep games close, but again, not much rest coming into this one with any mistake favoring the Chiefs to rack up more than 5.5 points, which is very doable in this one.

Dolphins +2*: Yes, the Eagles are good, and yes, so are the Dolphins.  This right here might be the Superbowl game as we get to watch one of the most anticipated games this week with me leaning on the Dolphins due to their powerhouse offense that has kept this game’s spread super tight. The Eagles have a lot of ammunition in this one with the Dolphins giving up way more rushing yards than passing yards which D. Swift (RB) could capitalize on.  However, the Dolphins are the clear winners offensively as long as the football’s laces are facing out Finkle.

49ERS -6.5*: The 49ers are really good this season and have dominated every single game this season with the exception of the Cleveland Browns in Week 6. The Vikings on the other hand have great offensive numbies but have proven to lose the majority of their games despite K. Cousins (QB) throwing 14 touchdown passes and going for 1679 yards this season. Something that I feel will continue into this game as I have given up all hope on this team unless they can start proving some form of turnaround which I don’t expect to happen in this one.  Either way, the 49ers are looking for a feel-good game after losing to the Browns, and winning here by a touchdown + is a good way to start that 49ers winning momentum once again.

*Odds courtesy of Bet MGM on 10/18/2023 

FINAL THOUGHTS

Wow, look at what I did in Week 6 with 11 AST picks and proving that you could have parlayed all of them, retired, and be now living on your private island. Hopefully, I will make another double-digit run in Week 7 keeping in mind I’ve already lost one to the Saint on Thursday night. Looks like this week I have balanced the books by only picking 7 favored teams even though it just worked out to be like that based on my sophisticated formula for picking games.  Also, someone needs to ask why Chabdog Sports calls the Commanders “Commies” but I’ll say it’s an improvement over calling them the “Foreskins” which we had in place for the longest time.  Lastly, I am simply amazed every week that we’re still in business considering the amount of shenanigans we pull off, and happy to still have a place here to pencil in all my thoughts considering that blogging only started at Chabdog 7 weeks ago!

Let me know in the comments your thoughts on Week 7 below, or wherever you find this posted on my socials @

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