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Hey everyone, it’s week 3 and off to the NFL races we go with the Patriots vs the Jets tonight (ATS: Patriots ML: Jets )! As always, here are my scrumdidilyumptious NFL picks based on very flawed science, numbies based solely on Taylor Swift’s game attendance, and a spidey sense that may or may not be functioning well based on the amount and quality of tacos I ate today. As for week 2, I got 53% (8/15) of my picks right with my 16th pick being a “push” (8 – 7 – 1). Overall, you still have a better shot with my picks below than literally flipping a quarter. So if you’re stuck on a particular game to pick, just know you got better odds right fucking here!!! LFGoooooo!
WEEK 1: 10/16 (62.5%) WEEK 2: 8/15 + 1 Push (53.3%) SEASON RECORD (ATS): 18/31 + 1 Push (58%)
| | @gawdbrudder
It’s always difficult to pick games in Week 1, but I had a nice bounce-back performance in Week 2. Now it is time for the rubber match. Do I know ball or not? I am banking on some surprising teams continuing to surprise and I will be betting on those teams until the oddsmakers catch up or until they turn into pumpkins. Whichever happens first.
New England +6.5 at NY Jets
New England is the first of the surprise teams I am talking about. They have covered the spread twice in a row and have beaten Cincinnati outright. The Jets need this game badly, but they will have to grind it out because Aaron Rodgers has yet to throw for 200 yards in a game for them.
NY Giants +6.5 at Cleveland
Congrats to Cleveland for bouncing back from that Week 1 disaster and beating Jacksonville. The Browns should still have to score 20 points in a game before they are favored to beat anyone by a touchdown. Remember, my Giants were not abysmal last week. Malik Nabers is the real deal, and now we have a kicker who can help us cover this spread! I bet we can even win if we keep the opponent out of the end zone again (sigh).
Chicago at Indianapolis -1.5
The Colts laid an egg last week, but they should still be laying at least a field goal against the Bears. Chicago’s defense won the game against Tennessee and kept the game in Houston close, but I think it is asking a lot for this team to win outright on the road.
Houston at Minnesota +4.5
The oddsmakers still don’t believe in Minnesota! I do, especially after Houston failed to put away Chicago last week until the final minute.
Philadelphia at New Orleans +2.5
The oddsmakers also don’t believe in New Orleans! What else do the Saints have to do? Beat someone by 100? Maybe they’ll do that on Sunday!
LA Chargers +2.5 at Pittsburgh
Normally this would be a Pittsburgh spot with the soft west coast team coming into the Steel City, but Jim Harbaugh has turned the Chargers into men, and they will continue to prove their manliness with a big road win!
Denver at Tampa Bay -6.5
Bo Nix has four interceptions and zero touchdowns so far. That is not a great ratio! If Denver continues to turn it over, Tampa Bay will score more than enough to cover this spread.
Green Bay +2.5 at Tennessee
Matt LaFleur showed that he can win with Malik Willis under center. I didn’t need to see much else. Give me Packers and the points against feeble Tennessee.
Carolina +6.5 at Las Vegas
Andy Dalton will give this Carolina team a bump and the Raiders are in a letdown spot.
Miami at Seattle -5.5
I’ll lay anything less than a touchdown against Miami until it gets a competent quarterback in there. Jaxon Smith-Njigba finally broke out for Seattle in Week 2, and that is bad news for opposing defenses.
Detroit at Arizona +3.5
That Kyler Murray to Marvin Harrison Jr. connection looks sharp! Arizona is playing good ball so far with a close loss at Buffalo and a blowout win over the Rams. Could this be a letdown season for the Lions?
Baltimore at Dallas +1.5
I’m not convinced that Baltimore is bad after two close losses, but the Ravens aren’t good enough to be laying points in Jerry World.
San Francisco -7.5 at LA Rams
This is probably an overreaction to the Rams getting killed by Arizona, but I expect the 49ers to reassert dominance in this spot.
Kansas City at Atlanta +4.5
The Falcons should be 0-2, and I would like them even more if that was the case! The Chiefs just don’t like covering spreads. They would be 0-2 ATS if not for Isaiah Likely being one inch out of bounds on opening night.
Jacksonville at Buffalo -5.5
The Jaguars have a brutal September schedule, and that could bury them if Trevor Lawrence doesn’t step up his game. I don’t think he will because he is only a little better than Daniel Jones.
Washington +7.5 at Cincinnati
The Commies would be 0-2 if my Giants had a damn kicker, but their offense has been surprisingly decent. Jayden Daniels has been accurate and efficient. If he can finally throw his first NFL touchdown pass, Washington should be able to stay in the game with Cincinnati.
It was a massacre of the favorites! 11 dogs came home. How the heck did the Raiders do that? Why do the Cowboys suck again? How on earth did the Vikings beat the 49ers? The Rams? WTF! Fitting that the Falcons upset Phiily last night.
Leading the group Abe and Aaron are tied at 8-7-1. In second with 6 wins was Chabdog and Well Read, and poor Dorothy D had 4.
Yuk
— Baltimore can give away more than 8.5
— Chargers cover the 6 against sscary bad Scarolina
— Dallas does Derek real bad and blows them out by more than six
— Tampa hangs around the Lions lair, and kkeps this closer than a stupid 6.5
— Indy beats GB by more than 3 (that’s what I’m talkin bout Willis)
— J-ville makes Cleveland like like the JV/wins by 3 at least
— No more Green Acres for Sam Darnold; San Fran wins by a TD or better
— Seattle looks sleep deprived in New England… and surprise surprise NE is two for two
— Mr. Rodgers wins one away from his neighborhood, and it shows he’s still pretty good. Go with the JETS to cover.
— Comical Commies over jr. G-men, and it’s by more than 1
ChabDog’s Habs and Have-nots for the Weekend Spreads:
–Rams have no problemo raising their game against Arizona by a minimum of 3.
— Another huckleberry for Tomlin; Steelers slug their way past Denver and the margin is north of 2.5.
— Cincy is in the wrong place at the wrong time… and it’s not called Burrowhead. KC wins by 4.5 and then some.
— Bears learn there’s a big difference between Texans and Titans; Chicago’s sloppy play from last week catches up with them in what is a two-score margin
— Quite a bulge for the Eggles in Monday Nite’s Battle of the Birds. Go with Philly.
Hey everyone, it’s week 2 and so happy to hauk tuah all over this NFL thang once again!!!!! As always, here are my scrumdidilyumptious NFL picks based on very flawed science, numbies based solely on Taylor Swift’s game attendance, and a spidey sense that may or may not be functioning well based on the amount and quality of tacos I ate today. As for week 1, I got 62.5% (10/16) of my picks right which means you have a better shot with my picks below than literally flipping a quarter. So if you’re stuck on a particular game to pick, just know you got better odds right fucking here!!! LFGoooooo!
WEEK 1: 10/16 (62.5%)
| | @gawdbrudder
Week 1 of the NFL is finally in the books and the veil of the unknown has been lifted, but now we have a new conundrum. Of what we saw unfold last week, what is real and what is a mirage? What is a fluke and what is a season-long trend? Hey, this is almost as hard to predict as Week 1. At least I won’t be quite as disappointed with the Giants when they play like garbage.
Buffalo at Miami -2.5
Both of these teams had a little more trouble with their first opponents than I thought they would. At least I had Arizona covering against Buffalo, but I thought it would be more of a backdoor cover than a legitimately close game. Miami, meanwhile, was a yard away from falling behind Jacksonville 24-7 before it was saved by a Travis Etienne goal-line fumble and an 80-yard touchdown strike from Tua Tagovailoa to Tyreek Hill. Now many fans are wondering why the Dolphins are favored in a night game when the South Florida humidity won’t have as much of an effect. I’ll tell you why. This team is much better than it looked in Week 1! Miami gets a big win tonight!
Las Vegas +8.5 at Baltimore
Neither of these teams were impressive last week, but the Ravens came an inch away from almost beating the Chiefs when Isaiah Likely caught a last-second touchdown only to be ruled out of bounds by replay. It’s easy to remember that late surge by Baltimore and a little less easy to remember that it looked like the inferior team for much of the evening. Inferior to the Chiefs is nothing to panic about, but I think this number is a little too big against what I expect to be a spunky Raiders squad. Antonio Pierce’s super conservative 4th down decisions were a detriment last week, but they might help cover in a game like this one.
LA Chargers -6.0 at Carolina
Jim Harbaugh took care of business for me against the aforementioned Raiders last week, so let’s keep rolling with him. I sure as heck am not backing the Panthers for the second week in a row, so if they bounce back and play respectable football, I will tip my cap.
New Orleans +6.5 at Dallas
Both of these teams looked great in Week 1, but the competition was suspect. Okay, maybe Dallas was a little more impressive since they won big as a road dog, but I thought the Cowboys would be good and I thought the Saints would have a little trouble with Carolina. So maybe New Orleans was a little more impressive for me. You have to be pretty good to make the opponent look THAT bad, right? I’ll just take the points because Cowboys fans getting too big for their britches is something that no one wants to deal with.
Tampa Bay at Detroit -6.5
I whiffed on both of these teams last week, but Detroit kind of screwed me by covering in overtime. The Rams were the right side! In Tampa, Baker Mayfield was amazing against Washington, but he’ll face a much stiffer test up north. I’m suspicious of how high this spread is given that the Buccaneers won a Playoff game last season and impressed in Week 1. That makes me like the Lions, who beat Tampa Bay 31-23 in January’s Divisional Round.
Indianapolis +3.0 at Green Bay
This line has shifted to Colts -2.5 because Malik Willis stinks. Maybe if the Packers kept Sean Clifford, I could talk myself into rolling with them. Too bad.
Cleveland at Jacksonville -2.5
This is such a chalky pick. We get the Jaguars coming off a game in which they should have beaten the Dolphins and the Browns coming off a tire fire vs. Dallas. I am choosing to step into the trap here because I was never much of a Deshaun Watson believer. Him continuing to be awful will amuse me.
San Francisco at Minnesota +6.0
Maybe the Vikings are a little bit good?! No, it can’t be. The Giants are just that bad, but I am buying the hype about Minnesota’s rebuilt defense under the leadership of Brian Flores. He might not coddle his quarterback enough to be a great head coach, but he knows how to run a defense! I doubt the 49ers will be able to run the ball the way they did against those Jets. San Francisco will win, but by fewer points than the experts think.
Seattle at New England +3.5
Boy, how crazy would the AFC East race be if the Patriots are legit? We could find out very quickly with New England hosting a Seattle team that beat up on Denver at home last week. Coming all the way across the country to face a fired-up Patriots squad is a different story! I am predicting another ugly New England win to follow up the shocking upset in Cincinnati.
NY Jets -3.5 at Tennessee
We are already in must-win mode for the Jets because of the great expectations placed on them in the preseason. Some fans even deluded themselves into thinking that they could beat San Francisco on the road. Not this guy! The good news for New York is that it already played the toughest game on its schedule. It’s all downhill from here, and it starts with a Titans team that gave away the game to Chicago last week.
NY Giants +1.5 at Washington
Another week, and another “winnable” game for the Giants to disappoint me in. According to what I said last week, the season is already over, but it’s easy to forget that Washington was just as miserable in Week 1 before Jayden Daniels racked up some garbage-time fantasy points at the end. I can see Daniel Jones having a bounce-back game to save his job and muddy the quarterback situation for the next few weeks.
LA Rams -2.5 at Arizona
No, I don’t think that Arizona is suddenly scary because it played a close game in Buffalo despite not getting much from Maserati Marv. The Rams, on the other hand, showed some serious fight after falling behind by two scores in Detroit while Cooper Kupp showed that he is still elite. If the Rams are back to being an NFC contender, they’ll take care of business here.
Pittsburgh -2.5 at Denver
Another overreaction road favorite pick? Maybe. Last Sunday made me a believer in Pittsburgh’s defense, and it could feast against the n00b Bo Nix.
Cincinnati at Kansas City -4.5
Jacksonville is no longer my chalkiest pick on the card. Chiefs at home by less than a touchdown against a Bengals team that just lost to New England? I want to buy a bounce back from the Bengals, but I just can’t with Joe Burrow looking like a member of *NSYNC. Give me the champs in a rout.
Chicago at Houston -6.0
If the Jaguars, Chiefs, and Texans all cover, I am officially declaring gambling to be too easy. The Bears needed some seriously fluky things to bounce their way in order to defeat Tennessee on Sunday. Now they need to go on the road in prime time against a Houston team that just showed how real the hype was when it won a big AFC South clash in Week 1. You can’t predict football, though.
Atlanta +6.5 at Philadelphia
I can’t pick the hot home favorite for the third time in a row. The difference here is that I believed in Atlanta a lot heading into the season (I also can’t stand the Eagles). Week 1 went very badly for Kirk Cousins and the Falcons, but the Eagles showed last week that they can give up the big play. Atlanta has plenty of playmakers capable of making one and keeping this game close.
2.5 is too little for the counterfeit Bills. ChabDog’s going with Coach Mikey, Tua and the Aqua Marine scoring machine. Look for lots of shock and awe in South Beach, as the Miami pound machine spits out too many points for an exposed Buffalo defense, that just last week got largely violated by the mighty Cardinals..
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ChabDog’s Habs and Have-nots against the Week 2 spreads:
— Baltimore can give away more than 8.5
— Chargers cover the 6 against sscary bad Scarolina
— Dallas does Derek real bad and blows them out by more than six
— Tampa hangs around the Lions lair, and kkeps this closer than a stupid 6.5
— Indy beats GB by more than 3 (that’s what I’m talkin bout Willis)
— J-ville makes Cleveland like like the JV/wins by 3 at least
— No more Green Acres for Sam Darnold; San Fran wins by a TD or better
— Seattle looks sleep deprived in New England… and surprise surprise NE is two for two
— Mr. Rodgers wins one away from his neighborhood, and it shows he’s still pretty good. Go with the JETS to cover.
— Comical Commies over jr. G-men, and it’s by more than 1
ChabDog’s Habs and Have-nots for the Weekend Spreads:
–Rams have no problemo raising their game against Arizona by a minimum of 3.
— Another huckleberry for Tomlin; Steelers slug their way past Denver and the margin is north of 2.5.
— Cincy is in the wrong place at the wrong time… and it’s not called Burrowhead. KC wins by 4.5 and then some.
— Bears learn there’s a big difference between Texans and Titans; Chicago’s sloppy play from last week catches up with them in what is a two-score margin
— Quite a bulge for the Eggles in Monday Nite’s Battle of the Birds. Go with Philly.
ChabDog’s Pre-visioned pick for this week’s Thursday Night Football Fight:
2.5 is too little for the counterfeit Bills. ChabDog’s going with Coach Mikey, Tua and the Aqua Marine scoring machine. Look for lots of shock and awe in South Beach, as the Miami pound machine spits out too many points for an exposed Buffalo defense, that just last week got largely violated by the mighty Cardinals..
Well Read’s Posts
NFL Week Three Spreads
NFL Week Two Pick Results
It was a massacre of the favorites! 11 dogs came home. How the heck did the Raiders do that? Why do the Cowboys suck again? How on earth did the Vikings beat the 49ers? The Rams? WTF! Fitting that the Falcons upset Phiily last night.
Leading the group Abe and Aaron are tied at 8-7-1. In second with 6 wins was Chabdog and Well Read, and poor Dorothy D had 4.
Yuk
Abe’s Posts
Week 3: Abe’s Scrumdidilyumptious NFL Picks (ATS)
Hey everyone, it’s week 3 and off to the NFL races we go with the Patriots vs the Jets tonight (ATS: Patriots ML: Jets )! As always, here are my scrumdidilyumptious NFL picks based on very flawed science, numbies based solely on Taylor Swift’s game attendance, and a spidey sense that may or may not be functioning well based on the amount and quality of tacos I ate today. As for week 2, I got 53% (8/15) of my picks right with my 16th pick being a “push” (8 – 7 – 1). Overall, you still have a better shot with my picks below than literally flipping a quarter. So if you’re stuck on a particular game to pick, just know you got better odds right fucking here!!! LFGoooooo!
WEEK 1: 10/16 (62.5%) WEEK 2: 8/15 + 1 Push (53.3%) SEASON RECORD (ATS): 18/31 + 1 Push (58%)
| | @gawdbrudder
Week 2: Abe’s Scrumdidilyumptious NFL Picks (ATS)
Hey everyone, it’s week 2 and so happy to hauk tuah all over this NFL thang once again!!!!! As always, here are my scrumdidilyumptious NFL picks based on very flawed science, numbies based solely on Taylor Swift’s game attendance, and a spidey sense that may or may not be functioning well based on the amount and quality of tacos I ate today. As for week 1, I got 62.5% (10/16) of my picks right which means you have a better shot with my picks below than literally flipping a quarter. So if you’re stuck on a particular game to pick, just know you got better odds right fucking here!!! LFGoooooo!
WEEK 1: 10/16 (62.5%)
| | @gawdbrudder
Dorothy’s Posts
Aaron’s Posts
Aaron’s Week 3 NFL Picks
It’s always difficult to pick games in Week 1, but I had a nice bounce-back performance in Week 2. Now it is time for the rubber match. Do I know ball or not? I am banking on some surprising teams continuing to surprise and I will be betting on those teams until the oddsmakers catch up or until they turn into pumpkins. Whichever happens first.
New England +6.5 at NY Jets
New England is the first of the surprise teams I am talking about. They have covered the spread twice in a row and have beaten Cincinnati outright. The Jets need this game badly, but they will have to grind it out because Aaron Rodgers has yet to throw for 200 yards in a game for them.
NY Giants +6.5 at Cleveland
Congrats to Cleveland for bouncing back from that Week 1 disaster and beating Jacksonville. The Browns should still have to score 20 points in a game before they are favored to beat anyone by a touchdown. Remember, my Giants were not abysmal last week. Malik Nabers is the real deal, and now we have a kicker who can help us cover this spread! I bet we can even win if we keep the opponent out of the end zone again (sigh).
Chicago at Indianapolis -1.5
The Colts laid an egg last week, but they should still be laying at least a field goal against the Bears. Chicago’s defense won the game against Tennessee and kept the game in Houston close, but I think it is asking a lot for this team to win outright on the road.
Houston at Minnesota +4.5
The oddsmakers still don’t believe in Minnesota! I do, especially after Houston failed to put away Chicago last week until the final minute.
Aaron’s Week 2 NFL Picks
Week 1 of the NFL is finally in the books and the veil of the unknown has been lifted, but now we have a new conundrum. Of what we saw unfold last week, what is real and what is a mirage? What is a fluke and what is a season-long trend? Hey, this is almost as hard to predict as Week 1. At least I won’t be quite as disappointed with the Giants when they play like garbage.
Buffalo at Miami -2.5
Both of these teams had a little more trouble with their first opponents than I thought they would. At least I had Arizona covering against Buffalo, but I thought it would be more of a backdoor cover than a legitimately close game. Miami, meanwhile, was a yard away from falling behind Jacksonville 24-7 before it was saved by a Travis Etienne goal-line fumble and an 80-yard touchdown strike from Tua Tagovailoa to Tyreek Hill. Now many fans are wondering why the Dolphins are favored in a night game when the South Florida humidity won’t have as much of an effect. I’ll tell you why. This team is much better than it looked in Week 1! Miami gets a big win tonight!
Las Vegas +8.5 at Baltimore
Neither of these teams were impressive last week, but the Ravens came an inch away from almost beating the Chiefs when Isaiah Likely caught a last-second touchdown only to be ruled out of bounds by replay. It’s easy to remember that late surge by Baltimore and a little less easy to remember that it looked like the inferior team for much of the evening. Inferior to the Chiefs is nothing to panic about, but I think this number is a little too big against what I expect to be a spunky Raiders squad. Antonio Pierce’s super conservative 4th down decisions were a detriment last week, but they might help cover in a game like this one.
LA Chargers -6.0 at Carolina
Jim Harbaugh took care of business for me against the aforementioned Raiders last week, so let’s keep rolling with him. I sure as heck am not backing the Panthers for the second week in a row, so if they bounce back and play respectable football, I will tip my cap.
Aaron’s Week 1 NFL Picks
Football is back! So what if it’s already been back for more than a week thanks to college football? It’s REALLY back tonight with the start of the NFL, tiny point spreads, and fantasy! I am a New York Giants fan, so I am predicting a season full of pain and suffering, but maybe some of you out there can get some joy out of the next five months. There’s always fantasy football, right? Nope, just more frustration and torture. But how about the ChabDog picks contest? Now, there is something that I have a chance to win.
Baltimore +2.5 at Kansas City
Everyone is going to love the Chiefs at less than a field goal. They just won the freaking Super Bowl and are at home in front of a raucous crowd. Plus, ChiefsAholic just got sentenced to federal prison, so you know the boys will be extra fired up to get the job done for him. HOWEVER, the Chiefs aren’t the elite offensive team they used to be. Last winter, they barely got by Baltimore in the Playoffs thanks to a great defensive effort. Patrick Mahomes is still looking for a go-to wide receiver and Travis Kelce might be over the hill. The defense is still good, but it’s tougher to repeat a great defensive season than a great offensive season. Give me the hungry Ravens with their new-look and more intimidating running game for the upset!
Green Bay +1.5 vs. Philadelphia
It is a sham that this game is even happening with the crime activity in Sao Paulo being so high that players are leaving their families behind. Player safety is a priority for the NFL until the owners can make a few extra bucks by putting a game in South America! Plus, it is a Peacock exclusive game, so even fans in America will feel like they are getting robbed. Anyway, this is an easy one for me. The Eagles were in full meltdown mode at the end of last season. Now, many fans are convinced that Saquon Barkley and a couple of new coordinators will solve all their issues. I’m not so sure. I’ll take the rising Packers after their exciting run in last season’s Playoffs.
Pittsburgh at Atlanta -2.5
This spread should be more than three points. Maybe not everyone realizes how much better the Atlanta offense is now that the team has a veteran quarterback under center. Kirk Cousins is coming back from a major Achilles tendon injury, but he won’t need to move around much when Bijan Robinson and Drake London are entering their primes. This offense is just as talented as the one that Cousins left behind in Minnesota. It will be tough for the Steelers and their new quarterback to keep pace, even with new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith’s familiarity with Atlanta.
Arizona +7.5 at Buffalo
Arizona’s offense is on the rise due to the selections of Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey Benson in the NFL Draft. Plus, Trey McBride emerged as a star tight end last season, and Kyler Murray is expected to have his best season yet after missing half of 2023 due to recovery from knee surgery. Does that mean that the Cardinals will stun Buffalo in Week 1? There’s a chance with Josh Allen breaking in a new-look receiving group. I still think Buffalo prevails, but I wouldn’t pick the Bills in survivor. Taking the points is the move here.
The Big Ten Tournament is here with two teams trying to battle their way into the Big Dance
The Big Ten Men’s Basketball Tournament bracket is here, and as usual, it is glorious. What’s even better is that the beautiful pinwheel logo has returned to prominence after one-year hiatus that is among the worst decisions in college basketball tournament logo history. Penn State has almost zero chance of winning this thing, which is its only available path to the NCAA Tournament, but I can dream of a run to the semifinals thanks to a favorable draw that avoids Purdue and Illinois through the first three rounds.
The #B1GMBBT bracket is set. 🏀 pic.twitter.com/26VaSJB5cc
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) March 11, 2024
Sure, Penn State has to play on the first evening of the tournament, which is a Peacock exclusive event, but if it had been seeded a little higher in slots 10 through seven, the matchup in the quarterfinals would feature Purdue or Illinois instead of the less intimidating Nebraska. I’m getting way ahead of myself, though, since just reaching the quarterfinals means defeating a red hot Indiana team that is desperate to play its way onto the NCAA bubble. Penn State might have a psychological edge from defeating the Hoosiers twice this season, but Indiana has looked like a different team on its current four-game winning streak. Plus, just to get to that date with Indiana, the Nittany Lions must get past Michigan tonight. The Wolverines have lost eight straight, but Penn State has a loss to Bucknell on its resume, so nothing is impossible.
Purdue established Big Ten supremacy last week with a thrilling victory at Illinois before wrapping up its regular season with a home win over Wisconsin. The slumping Badgers have not been a great team since February started, as they finished Big Ten play 3-8 after starting 8-1, but I’ll give them credit for the way they battled the Boilers despite having another rough game from beyond the arc. Wisconsin shot 5-for-24 from three-point range, but John Blackwell and Tyler Wahl both went 7-for-10 from the field to keep Purdue from running away with the game.
Purdue wins the regular season title and Indiana is still alive for the big dance
I said on the Chabdog Sports podcast last Sunday that Purdue would be listed as champion when I fill out my NCAA Tournament bracket in a couple of weeks. On Tuesday night, the Boilers showed why I think they will complete their redemption arc when they beat Illinois 77-71 in Champaign. The combination of opponent and venue made the game Purdue’s stiffest test since December, and it passed thanks to a clutch three-point shot in the final seconds by Braden Smith. The shot came at the tail end of a broken possession by the Boilers that was saved once by Zach Edey, who slapped the ball away from Illinois and into the hands of his teammates Fletcher Loyer following Lance Jones’ wild layup attempt. Smith saved it again when he casually pulled up from five feet beyond the arc and drained his jumper over Terrence Shannon Jr.
If Smith had not clutched up, Illinois would likely the ball back down by three points with 18 seconds to play. Instead, the lead was six, and the game was over when Shannon’s answer bounced off the rim. Smith’s effort was just one of several big three-point shots for Purdue in the second half. Edey dominated the first 20 minutes with 18 points, but Illinois held him to 10 after the break, forcing the Boilers to look to their role players for help. They answered, starting with Mason Gillis’ three-point shot in transition that gave Purdue its first lead at 56-54 with 10 minutes to play. Gillis drained another one to put the Boilers ahead 64-58 with seven minutes left, but Illinois tied the game with a dunk by Coleman Hawkins two straight driving layups by Marcus Domask, the last of which he floated in over Edey.
Braden Smith! Onions! He bailed out Matt Painter, who for some reason did not call a time out during this broken possession. Purdue’s biggest win of the year. pic.twitter.com/bivOs9D3uN
— Aaron Yorke (@AaronPYorke) March 6, 2024
Illinois would retake the lead on a pair of free throws by Shannon, but Loyer put Purdue back up by three with a three-point shot and a runner in the paint on consecutive possessions. Lance Jones hit a monster triple from the corner to expand the advantage to six with less than a minute on the clock, but Domask struck back with another layup plus the foul to set the stage for Smith’s heroics.
With Edey doing his thing like he always does, Purdue is not going to be beat when it shoots the three as accurately as it did against Illinois (9-for-16). Matt Painter’s team doesn’t excel at creating its own shot from the perimeter, but it showed that it can break down the opposing defense and find the open man with 20 assists on 29 field goals during the win. Illinois did an excellent job slowing down Edey in the second half, but it could not keep up with Purdue’s three-point shooting. Illinois was just 4-for-16 beyond the arc, and most of that came from Quincy Guerrier catching fire in the first half. Domask was the one guy who came up huge down the stretch, and Shannon needs to step up if the Illini are going to win a rematch with Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament or NCAA Tournament. He went 3-for-13 from the field with just 11 points.