Week 1 of the NFL is finally in the books and the veil of the unknown has been lifted, but now we have a new conundrum. Of what we saw unfold last week, what is real and what is a mirage? What is a fluke and what is a season-long trend? Hey, this is almost as hard to predict as Week 1. At least I won’t be quite as disappointed with the Giants when they play like garbage.
Buffalo at Miami -2.5
Both of these teams had a little more trouble with their first opponents than I thought they would. At least I had Arizona covering against Buffalo, but I thought it would be more of a backdoor cover than a legitimately close game. Miami, meanwhile, was a yard away from falling behind Jacksonville 24-7 before it was saved by a Travis Etienne goal-line fumble and an 80-yard touchdown strike from Tua Tagovailoa to Tyreek Hill. Now many fans are wondering why the Dolphins are favored in a night game when the South Florida humidity won’t have as much of an effect. I’ll tell you why. This team is much better than it looked in Week 1! Miami gets a big win tonight!
Las Vegas +8.5 at Baltimore
Neither of these teams were impressive last week, but the Ravens came an inch away from almost beating the Chiefs when Isaiah Likely caught a last-second touchdown only to be ruled out of bounds by replay. It’s easy to remember that late surge by Baltimore and a little less easy to remember that it looked like the inferior team for much of the evening. Inferior to the Chiefs is nothing to panic about, but I think this number is a little too big against what I expect to be a spunky Raiders squad. Antonio Pierce’s super conservative 4th down decisions were a detriment last week, but they might help cover in a game like this one.
LA Chargers -6.0 at Carolina
Jim Harbaugh took care of business for me against the aforementioned Raiders last week, so let’s keep rolling with him. I sure as heck am not backing the Panthers for the second week in a row, so if they bounce back and play respectable football, I will tip my cap.
New Orleans +6.5 at Dallas
Both of these teams looked great in Week 1, but the competition was suspect. Okay, maybe Dallas was a little more impressive since they won big as a road dog, but I thought the Cowboys would be good and I thought the Saints would have a little trouble with Carolina. So maybe New Orleans was a little more impressive for me. You have to be pretty good to make the opponent look THAT bad, right? I’ll just take the points because Cowboys fans getting too big for their britches is something that no one wants to deal with.
Tampa Bay at Detroit -6.5
I whiffed on both of these teams last week, but Detroit kind of screwed me by covering in overtime. The Rams were the right side! In Tampa, Baker Mayfield was amazing against Washington, but he’ll face a much stiffer test up north. I’m suspicious of how high this spread is given that the Buccaneers won a Playoff game last season and impressed in Week 1. That makes me like the Lions, who beat Tampa Bay 31-23 in January’s Divisional Round.
Indianapolis +3.0 at Green Bay
This line has shifted to Colts -2.5 because Malik Willis stinks. Maybe if the Packers kept Sean Clifford, I could talk myself into rolling with them. Too bad.
Cleveland at Jacksonville -2.5
This is such a chalky pick. We get the Jaguars coming off a game in which they should have beaten the Dolphins and the Browns coming off a tire fire vs. Dallas. I am choosing to step into the trap here because I was never much of a Deshaun Watson believer. Him continuing to be awful will amuse me.
San Francisco at Minnesota +6.0
Maybe the Vikings are a little bit good?! No, it can’t be. The Giants are just that bad, but I am buying the hype about Minnesota’s rebuilt defense under the leadership of Brian Flores. He might not coddle his quarterback enough to be a great head coach, but he knows how to run a defense! I doubt the 49ers will be able to run the ball the way they did against those Jets. San Francisco will win, but by fewer points than the experts think.
Seattle at New England +3.5
Boy, how crazy would the AFC East race be if the Patriots are legit? We could find out very quickly with New England hosting a Seattle team that beat up on Denver at home last week. Coming all the way across the country to face a fired-up Patriots squad is a different story! I am predicting another ugly New England win to follow up the shocking upset in Cincinnati.
NY Jets -3.5 at Tennessee
We are already in must-win mode for the Jets because of the great expectations placed on them in the preseason. Some fans even deluded themselves into thinking that they could beat San Francisco on the road. Not this guy! The good news for New York is that it already played the toughest game on its schedule. It’s all downhill from here, and it starts with a Titans team that gave away the game to Chicago last week.
NY Giants +1.5 at Washington
Another week, and another “winnable” game for the Giants to disappoint me in. According to what I said last week, the season is already over, but it’s easy to forget that Washington was just as miserable in Week 1 before Jayden Daniels racked up some garbage-time fantasy points at the end. I can see Daniel Jones having a bounce-back game to save his job and muddy the quarterback situation for the next few weeks.
LA Rams -2.5 at Arizona
No, I don’t think that Arizona is suddenly scary because it played a close game in Buffalo despite not getting much from Maserati Marv. The Rams, on the other hand, showed some serious fight after falling behind by two scores in Detroit while Cooper Kupp showed that he is still elite. If the Rams are back to being an NFC contender, they’ll take care of business here.
Pittsburgh -2.5 at Denver
Another overreaction road favorite pick? Maybe. Last Sunday made me a believer in Pittsburgh’s defense, and it could feast against the n00b Bo Nix.
Cincinnati at Kansas City -4.5
Jacksonville is no longer my chalkiest pick on the card. Chiefs at home by less than a touchdown against a Bengals team that just lost to New England? I want to buy a bounce back from the Bengals, but I just can’t with Joe Burrow looking like a member of *NSYNC. Give me the champs in a rout.
Chicago at Houston -6.0
If the Jaguars, Chiefs, and Texans all cover, I am officially declaring gambling to be too easy. The Bears needed some seriously fluky things to bounce their way in order to defeat Tennessee on Sunday. Now they need to go on the road in prime time against a Houston team that just showed how real the hype was when it won a big AFC South clash in Week 1. You can’t predict football, though.
Atlanta +6.5 at Philadelphia
I can’t pick the hot home favorite for the third time in a row. The difference here is that I believed in Atlanta a lot heading into the season (I also can’t stand the Eagles). Week 1 went very badly for Kirk Cousins and the Falcons, but the Eagles showed last week that they can give up the big play. Atlanta has plenty of playmakers capable of making one and keeping this game close.
0 Comments