Football is back! So what if it’s already been back for more than a week thanks to college football? It’s REALLY back tonight with the start of the NFL, tiny point spreads, and fantasy! I am a New York Giants fan, so I am predicting a season full of pain and suffering, but maybe some of you out there can get some joy out of the next five months. There’s always fantasy football, right? Nope, just more frustration and torture. But how about the ChabDog picks contest? Now, there is something that I have a chance to win.
Baltimore +2.5 at Kansas City
Everyone is going to love the Chiefs at less than a field goal. They just won the freaking Super Bowl and are at home in front of a raucous crowd. Plus, ChiefsAholic just got sentenced to federal prison, so you know the boys will be extra fired up to get the job done for him. HOWEVER, the Chiefs aren’t the elite offensive team they used to be. Last winter, they barely got by Baltimore in the Playoffs thanks to a great defensive effort. Patrick Mahomes is still looking for a go-to wide receiver and Travis Kelce might be over the hill. The defense is still good, but it’s tougher to repeat a great defensive season than a great offensive season. Give me the hungry Ravens with their new-look and more intimidating running game for the upset!
Green Bay +1.5 vs. Philadelphia
It is a sham that this game is even happening with the crime activity in Sao Paulo being so high that players are leaving their families behind. Player safety is a priority for the NFL until the owners can make a few extra bucks by putting a game in South America! Plus, it is a Peacock exclusive game, so even fans in America will feel like they are getting robbed. Anyway, this is an easy one for me. The Eagles were in full meltdown mode at the end of last season. Now, many fans are convinced that Saquon Barkley and a couple of new coordinators will solve all their issues. I’m not so sure. I’ll take the rising Packers after their exciting run in last season’s Playoffs.
Pittsburgh at Atlanta -2.5
This spread should be more than three points. Maybe not everyone realizes how much better the Atlanta offense is now that the team has a veteran quarterback under center. Kirk Cousins is coming back from a major Achilles tendon injury, but he won’t need to move around much when Bijan Robinson and Drake London are entering their primes. This offense is just as talented as the one that Cousins left behind in Minnesota. It will be tough for the Steelers and their new quarterback to keep pace, even with new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith’s familiarity with Atlanta.
Arizona +7.5 at Buffalo
Arizona’s offense is on the rise due to the selections of Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey Benson in the NFL Draft. Plus, Trey McBride emerged as a star tight end last season, and Kyler Murray is expected to have his best season yet after missing half of 2023 due to recovery from knee surgery. Does that mean that the Cardinals will stun Buffalo in Week 1? There’s a chance with Josh Allen breaking in a new-look receiving group. I still think Buffalo prevails, but I wouldn’t pick the Bills in survivor. Taking the points is the move here.
Tennessee +5.5 at Chicago
The hype around the Bears is deserved with the massive changes they have made across the offense. Should they be favored by so much in Caleb Williams’ first NFL start, though? I’m not so sure. Tennessee was spunky at the end of last season with a shocking win at Miami and overtime losses to Houston and Indianapolis. The Titans have a chance to spoil Chicago’s party.
New England at Cincinnati -7.5
This is a very chalky pick, but the Patriots stink. They have very little juice on offense and fans will have to wait a little longer to see what Drake Maye brings to the table. I respect Jared Mayo for making the unpopular decision of going with Jacoby Brissett as the starter, but there is a reason why it is an unpopular decision. Brissett isn’t capable of rejuvenating the offense the way the franchise hopes that Maye will.
Houston at Indianapolis +1.5
This is a repeat of the 2023 regular season finale in which the Texans beat the Colts 23-19 to win the AFC South. This time around should be different just because Anthony Richardson is fully healthy again after his rookie campaign was cut short due to a shoulder injury. There’s a lot of hype in Houston after the team traded for Stefon Diggs to give C.J. Stroud another stud receiver to throw to in his sophomore season. Sunday gives the Texans a great chance to prove that the hype is real, but the dynamic backfield of Richardson and Jonathan Taylor will allow the Colts to control the clock and earn a crucial early-season win.
Jacksonville at Miami -3.5
The Dolphins were electric on offense in 2023, and they will be playing the hits once again in 2024. Laying points with them is fun because they can score so quickly, and that is what I plan on doing with the Jaguars in town. Trevor Lawrence just signed a massive contract, but just like with Daniel Jones, the deal doesn’t make the man.
Carolina +4.5 at New Orleans
I am hoping that new Panthers head coach Dave Canales can work some magic with this team. New Orleans finished 2023 strong and made a run for the NFC South title while finishing 9-8. Carolina, meanwhile, got shut out in its final two games to give Chicago the top NFL Draft pick. The Panthers can’t be that horrible again, right?
Minnesota at NY Giants +0.5
The Giants not being favored in this game is depressing. Sam Darnold is starting for Minnesota. It should be time for optimism in New Jersey, but instead it feels like we’re waiting for Daniel Jones to get hurt or force Brian Daboll to bench him. I need the Giants to win this so I can enjoy being delusional for another week. If New York loses, the season is over already.
Las Vegas at LA Chargers -2.5
This is probably a trap, but I love what Jim Harbaugh brings to the table and he doesn’t have to slowly build up the Chargers since they already have plenty of talent. Los Angeles lost a lot of receiving talent, but Harbaugh just wants to pound the rock and let Herbert hit a couple of big play-action passes. If the Bolts get ahead early, they should be able to grind this one out.
Denver at Seattle -4.5
Seattle is my survivor pick for this week. I expect the Hawks to cruise against Denver and rookie quarterback Bo Nix. Seattle is a tough place to make a debut, and Geno Smith has a chance to light up the scoreboard with the weapons he has at wide receiver.
Dallas -1.5 at Cleveland
The Browns’ supposedly great defense was blasted by Houston in the Wild Card last season, and I could see Dallas doing something similar. The Cowboys are the only NFC East team I’m really high on. They might fall apart in the Playoffs again, but an appearance there seems likely with Dak Prescott out to prove that Jerry Jones is making a mistake by not giving in to his contract demands. The connection between Prescott and CeeDee Lamb could be nearly unstoppable.
Washington +4.5 at Tampa Bay
I’ve been picking against rookie quarterbacks, but that stops here because of how much I love Jayden Daniels. I thinks he’s a better bet for a breakout campaign than Caleb Williams due to his great rushing ability. Daniels is no stranger to having to carry a team after the load he carried at LSU last year. He’ll make enough wild escapes to keep the Commies from getting crushed in Tampa.
LA Rams +3.5 at Detroit
This game was very close in the Playoffs last season, and it should be again. Both teams are loaded on offense, so it’s tough to imagine anyone pulling away and winning by a touchdown. Detroit probably prevails because I like their backfield and pass rush a little better, but victory might come in the final seconds.
NY Jets at San Francisco -6.5
I’m buying into the Jets hype. The defense is great, Breece Hall is dynamic, and they have one great wide receiver, but there is a lot of faith being put in Aaron Rodgers being much better than Zach Wilson when he’s very old and coming off a major injury. Remember, Rodgers failed to make the Playoffs in his final season with Green Bay. If he has success with the Jets, he’ll be carried by the rest of the team like Peyton Manning with the 2015 Broncos.
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