Here we are at Week 18 and there is no more time for me to improve my dreadful picks record for this season. Mathematically, it is still possible to get back to .500, but that will require an incredible heater, and heaters are difficult when a lot of teams aren’t trying to win this week. Not only that, but the motivations for these teams are fluid and the NFL is too stupid to play all these games at the same time like a proper league would. For example, the five seed in the AFC is valuable because that team gets to travel to feeble Houston in the Wild Card Round instead of Baltimore or Buffalo. If Pittsburgh wins on Saturday, it takes the Chargers out of the running for that spot and they could lay down for the suddenly surging Raiders.
I’ll be taking the Steelers since they are home underdogs (even though that didn’t work last week) and the Chargers with the hope that they are motivated to stomp Las Vegas. The Ravens are now favored by an unheard of 20 points vs. Cleveland because they are playing for the AFC North title, so I’ll get out of their way and lay those points. Washington has clinched a Playoff spot, but there is plenty of reason to win at Dallas because a loss might force the Commies play at Philadelphia in the Wild Card Round instead of at Los Angeles against a Rams offense that has been held under 20 points in three straight games. That same motivation is in play for the Packers, who need a win and a Washington loss to avoid Philly. Speaking the Eagles, they have chosen against embarrassing the Giants by having Saquon Barkley rest instead of shattering the single-season rushing record against them. That gives me hope that Big Blue can end the season with a second straight win. Hopefully there will still be someone talented to select when our first round draft pick finally comes around.
Buffalo is also laying points while resting starters, but I trust Mitch Trubisky enough to give it the nod against New England. Denver is a massive favorite over Kansas City in a must-win game for the Broncos. I think they get the job done, but Carson Wentz playing spoiler would be hilarious, so give me the points in that one. In the great Sunday Night Football game, I like the Lions despite their defensive issues. They might be scarier on offense with Jahmyr Gibbs taking on a heavier workload due to David Montgomery’s injury.
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