It’s always difficult to pick games in Week 1, but I had a nice bounce-back performance in Week 2. Now it is time for the rubber match. Do I know ball or not? I am banking on some surprising teams continuing to surprise and I will be betting on those teams until the oddsmakers catch up or until they turn into pumpkins. Whichever happens first.
New England +6.5 at NY Jets
New England is the first of the surprise teams I am talking about. They have covered the spread twice in a row and have beaten Cincinnati outright. The Jets need this game badly, but they will have to grind it out because Aaron Rodgers has yet to throw for 200 yards in a game for them.
NY Giants +6.5 at Cleveland
Congrats to Cleveland for bouncing back from that Week 1 disaster and beating Jacksonville. The Browns should still have to score 20 points in a game before they are favored to beat anyone by a touchdown. Remember, my Giants were not abysmal last week. Malik Nabers is the real deal, and now we have a kicker who can help us cover this spread! I bet we can even win if we keep the opponent out of the end zone again (sigh).
Chicago at Indianapolis -1.5
The Colts laid an egg last week, but they should still be laying at least a field goal against the Bears. Chicago’s defense won the game against Tennessee and kept the game in Houston close, but I think it is asking a lot for this team to win outright on the road.
Houston at Minnesota +4.5
The oddsmakers still don’t believe in Minnesota! I do, especially after Houston failed to put away Chicago last week until the final minute.
Philadelphia at New Orleans +2.5
The oddsmakers also don’t believe in New Orleans! What else do the Saints have to do? Beat someone by 100? Maybe they’ll do that on Sunday!
LA Chargers +2.5 at Pittsburgh
Normally this would be a Pittsburgh spot with the soft west coast team coming into the Steel City, but Jim Harbaugh has turned the Chargers into men, and they will continue to prove their manliness with a big road win!
Denver at Tampa Bay -6.5
Bo Nix has four interceptions and zero touchdowns so far. That is not a great ratio! If Denver continues to turn it over, Tampa Bay will score more than enough to cover this spread.
Green Bay +2.5 at Tennessee
Matt LaFleur showed that he can win with Malik Willis under center. I didn’t need to see much else. Give me Packers and the points against feeble Tennessee.
Carolina +6.5 at Las Vegas
Andy Dalton will give this Carolina team a bump and the Raiders are in a letdown spot.
Miami at Seattle -5.5
I’ll lay anything less than a touchdown against Miami until it gets a competent quarterback in there. Jaxon Smith-Njigba finally broke out for Seattle in Week 2, and that is bad news for opposing defenses.
Detroit at Arizona +3.5
That Kyler Murray to Marvin Harrison Jr. connection looks sharp! Arizona is playing good ball so far with a close loss at Buffalo and a blowout win over the Rams. Could this be a letdown season for the Lions?
Baltimore at Dallas +1.5
I’m not convinced that Baltimore is bad after two close losses, but the Ravens aren’t good enough to be laying points in Jerry World.
San Francisco -7.5 at LA Rams
This is probably an overreaction to the Rams getting killed by Arizona, but I expect the 49ers to reassert dominance in this spot.
Kansas City at Atlanta +4.5
The Falcons should be 0-2, and I would like them even more if that was the case! The Chiefs just don’t like covering spreads. They would be 0-2 ATS if not for Isaiah Likely being one inch out of bounds on opening night.
Jacksonville at Buffalo -5.5
The Jaguars have a brutal September schedule, and that could bury them if Trevor Lawrence doesn’t step up his game. I don’t think he will because he is only a little better than Daniel Jones.
Washington +7.5 at Cincinnati
The Commies would be 0-2 if my Giants had a damn kicker, but their offense has been surprisingly decent. Jayden Daniels has been accurate and efficient. If he can finally throw his first NFL touchdown pass, Washington should be able to stay in the game with Cincinnati.
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