Penn State might be a wagon and Wisconsin stumbles at Michigan

I’m still not entertaining any NCAA Tournament talk with regards to my Penn State Nittany Lions. Too much damage has been done to the resume from inexplicably losing a buy game to Bucknell to going winless in Disney World to dropping overtime games against Maryland and Georgia Tech. It’s going to take way more than a Big Ten record that is one or two games above .500, even though that would be an impressive accomplishment for Mike Rhoades in his first season as head coach.

That said, the three-game winning streak that Penn State is on has been an awesome ride, and it was a lot of fun to watch it continue as the Lions pulled away from Iowa during the final four minutes on Thursday night. Ace Baldwin Jr. took over the game with 13 points and a pair of huge steals during the stretch and Penn State outscored Iowa 18-8 to finish with an 89-79 victory. I don’t expect seniors like Baldwin to take massive leaps with their game, but Baldwin looks like a different player than he was at the start of the season. He’s in control of the offense and red hot from three-point range. What’s crazy is that Baldwin was 0-for-13 from beyond the arc from the win against Rider on December 29 to the blowout loss at Purdue on January 13. Since then, he’s gone 16-for-26 in six games. It makes a big difference when opponents have to respect a point guard’s three-point shot. Opportunities for other players have opened up, and Baldwin has no problem sharing the rock when he needs to.

One of those players with more opportunities has been Qudus Wahab. He’s averaging 13 points per game over his last four games after a three-game stretch in which he scored exactly four points in each one. With Zach Hicks living on the perimeter and Nick Kern operating with the dribble drive, Wahab is the only Penn State big man who is a post threat, but he’s been an excellent one lately with 13 of his 16 field goals going in. Thanks to Baldwin finding some range and Wahab executing down low, the Lions have a pretty deep and versatile offense that will hopefully continue giving opponents problems down the stretch.

The defense is a different story, though. I was pleasantly surprised by Penn State’s rebounding against Iowa, but the Hawkeyes still shot 56 percent from the field with Ben Krikke going 10-for-18 on his way to 22 points. Iowa might have won if not for Payton Sandfort getting banged up and going 2-for-7 from deep. Iowa as a team only shot 27 percent from three-point range compared to 52 percent for Penn State, and it’s safe to say that was a difference maker. We saw from the Indiana game that defending big centers is an issue for Penn State that probably won’t be going away, but the Lions have shot the three so well lately that it hasn’t mattered. It also helps when you win the turnover battle as often as Penn State has this season.

While Penn State has won three straight, the mighty Wisconsin Badgers have lost three in a row. It wasn’t alarming when they dropped an overtime game at Nebraska. Sure, the Badgers blew a 16-point halftime lead, but no one wins at Pinnacle Bank Arena. It also wasn’t alarming when Wisconsin lost at home to Purdue because it was a close game and the Boilers are considered by some to be the best team in the land. What was alarming was when Wisconsin went into Ann Arbor on Wednesday night and lost 72-68 to a Michigan team that was on a five-game losing streak and couldn’t hold a halftime lead against anyone.

The Wolverines went ahead by nine in the first half because Wisconsin couldn’t stop Dug McDaniel from getting to the rim, but the Badgers narrowed the deficit to four before the break. It looked like a typical Michigan loss when AJ Storr made a layup to put Wisconsin ahead 48-44 with 13:47 to play, but Michigan showed some heart and regained the lead on a sweep Olivier Nkamhoua fade-away less than two minutes later. Juwan Howard’s team would hold the lead for the rest of the game thanks to a pair of big three-point shots from bench star Will Tschetter. Part of the reason for Wisconsin’s slump has been poor three-point shooting, and it showed in this one. The Badgers shot 26 percent from deep with only seven assists on 25 made baskets, so it wasn’t surprising when Chucky Hepburn missed his game-tying attempt from the top of the key with 27 seconds remaining.

A bright stop for Wisconsin has been Tyler Wahl, who was a beast with a career-high 20 points in the losing effort against Purdue. He was also very effective at Michigan with 12 points on 6-for-7 shooting, but that just makes me think he wasn’t involved enough. Either Wahl has to get the ball more often when he’s scoring that effectively, or he has to use his presence to find buckets for teammates. Against Purdue, Wahl got his points and also dished out five assists, but at Michigan, he only had two assists.

It will be very interesting to see what Wisconsin looks like when it visits Rutgers on Saturday. The venue formerly known as the RAC is someplace you really don’t want to be when you’re not shooting the ball well. Pretty much no one hits shots in that arena, including the home team. However, Rutgers is coming off two straight road wins, so the fans should be more jacked up for an upset than usual. They will smell blood if Wisconsin gets off to a slow start.

Meanwhile, Michigan will try to build off its win, but good luck with that in Lincoln. There is a lot of pressure on Nebraska to keep winning at home since the team fails to win on the road time and time again. Now would be a very bad time for the Huskers to start losing at Pinnacle Bank Arena since they are coming off consecutive road defeats at Illinois and Northwestern.

While the loss in Champaign was a little encouraging because Nebraska was such a big underdog and it battled to force overtime, the loss in Evanston was not so much. Nebraska trailed for the entire game against Northwestern and the deficit was at least 10 points for the entire second half while playmakers Rienk Mast and Keisei Tominaga wilted under the bright lights of Welsh-Ryan Arena. When I took Nebraska +5.5, I expected much more from those two who were such key factors in the Huskers forcing overtime against the Illini. Instead, the dynamic pair combined for just 19 points and Juwan Gary and Brice Williams were forced to carry the load for Nebraska. It wasn’t enough with the Wildcats shooting 44 percent from three-point range and Northwestern won comfortably 80-68.

Weekend hoops

Beside Wisconsin at Rutgers and Michigan at Nebraska, there are five other Big Ten games on this weekend, with the two biggest being Illinois at Michigan State and Indiana at Purdue. For the latter, the Boilers will be heavily favored to crush the Hoosiers like they did when the two rivals met in Bloomington last month. Indiana is desperate for a win, though, and it showed some mettle in a comeback victory over Ohio State on Tuesday. A lot rides on the health of Kel’el Ware, though. If he’s healthy, Indiana has a snowball’s chance.

Illinois at Michigan State promises to be a much tighter game since the first meeting was also tight. The Illini won that exciting back-and-forth contest 71-68, but they were without the services of Terrence Shannon Jr. Is Shannon worth more than the Spartans’ home court, though? Michigan State has been money in the Breslin Center since the start of the new year. If the bookmakers make Sparty an underdog, that would be a gambling opportunity.

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