Abe’s Week 5 Shitty NFL Picks (AST)

Hey everyone and welcome to another episode of me making shitty picks based on flawed science, numbies based solely on Taylor Swift’s game attendance, and drunken logic since my current record is:

Week 1: 6 Week 2: 8 Week 3: 6 Week 4: 8

Also, need to honorably mention that you’ll have a whopping 44.44% chance that you’ll make any money from my fantastic NFL picks, or you can fade me for a 55.56% chance of making money from my shitty NFL picks (not bad).  So let’s try this again with the goal of getting into the double digits with my Week 5 picks.

WASHINGTON COMMIES -6.5: OOOOOOF the 0-4 Chicago Bears are simply trash this season, especially after losing to the Denver Broncos (another team that can go into the 23-24 fire dumpster). Yes the Commies, as we like to call them here at Chabdog Sports, are 2-2, however, losing to the Eagles in OT is also no small feat! AAAAAnd everyone knows that the Bears are nowhere near the Eagles, shit, if the Chicago Bears had baby cubs, those cubs would grow up dreaming they too could be mighty Eagles one day.  The Bears are fucked this season so let’s ride 0-5.

BILLS -5.5: The 2-2 Jaguars have a great chance this season to lead the AFC South and make it into the playoffs, however, the 3-1 Bills are starting to hit their stride and are simply a better team. Especially after blowing out the Miami Dolphins by 28 points. Again, we will find ourselves in London with no true home-field advantage with the only real advantage favoring the Jags since they’re more acclimated to the timezone difference considering they played in London last week against the Falcons in Toy Story Mode.

TEXANS +1: Amazing to witness that that the 2-2 Texans are simply tied with everyone else in the AFC South in Week 5.  I also like how people are starting to give them much more value in picking them considering they blew out the Steelers and the Jags by 20 or more points. Additionally, I’m factoring in how the Falcons just lost to the Jaguars 23-7 while looking at Houston who just blew that team out of the water two weeks ago.  +1 seems like a gift from the Vegas Gawds.

LIONS -9: The Detroit Lions are looking like the team that will most likely lead the NFC North this season if nothing changes moving forward.  Of course, we need to consider that the Lions come into this game as both the offensive and defensive leader while taking on more formidable opponents by two or more touchdowns in the last two weeks. The 0-4 Panthers are simply bad, and owe those losses to the Vikings, Seahawks, Saints, and Falcons.  Teams that have been struggling a little bit out of the gate this season with the Seahawks being the only team with a winning record right now (3-1).

TITANS -1.5: On paper, the Titans and the Colts are simply “even Steven” with the Colts giving up more yards than the Titans. The only real advantage I see here is the Titan’s offense cutting through the Colt’s weaker defense with greater opportunities for the Titans to kick field goals and make stronger offensive drives toward the endzone.  On the flip side, Titans QB Tannehill already has 4 interceptions this season and could give up another one in this game to switch the momentum and keep the game interesting.  Ultimately, I feel the Titans have the ability to get closer to the endzone with greater chances to kick field goals than the Colts to easily beat them by more than a point and a half.

MIAMI -11: Wow, what a spread.  However, one can’t deny that the Dolphins are simply an offensive powerhouse that is playing a ridiculously incompetent NY Giants team.  I mean, when Daniel Jones (QB) is his team’s statistical leader as a passer and rusher, you know that guy is just simply skreeeeewed.  I don’t know if he can magically do it all against this Miami Dolphins team without getting hurt and being sent to the hospital. Prayers bro…seriously.

PATRIOTS -1.5:  The Saints are simply in a bad spot considering that Derek Carr is still questionable as of October 5 for this game and his backup QB, Taysom Hill, got his ass handed to him against the Bucs.  Also, like to mention that I stated that on the show to much fury from my co-hosts who thought Hill was going to do something magical against the Bucs…like seriously, WTF are they even thinking???  Additionally, Bill Belichick is ridiculously pissed right now, and I can’t see him losing this game at home against a hurt Saints team.

RAVENS -4.5: Holy caca do the Steelers royally suck this season.  I mean, WOW just WOW.  How the hell is the spread for this game even -4.5 against a Ravens team that blew out the Cleveland Brown’s impenetrable defense in Week 4?  I mean, come on guys, what are we looking at here that I’m missing? We don’t even know if Kenny Pickett (QB) is going to play in this game to add insult to injury here. Easssssssssssssssssy money.

BENGALS -3: I really harped in on the 49ers/Cards game last week, and boy were they defensively awful against the 49ers. If the Cards repeat whatever the hell they did in Week 4 defensively, Joe Burrow (QB) is going to have an absolute field day with them. A confidence boost the Bengals need to get out of this funky slump they find themselves in right now.

EAGLES -4.5:  The Rams and the Eagles both have great offensive numbies, but let’s keep in mind that the Rams could have easily been a 3-1 team if it wasn’t for their OT win against the Colts in Week 4. Looking at their Week 2 performance against another strong offensive team (49ers), we saw the Rams lose that game by 7 points at home.  Therefore, it’s very possible that the Eagles can soar above this threshold considering they’re extremely motivated to go 5-0 with the Rams in a similar scenario.  Something that I referenced in my Week 1 blog recalling them having a stellar start to their season last year, and ultimately going to the Superbowl. See below:

BRONCOS -1.5: Hello Dumpster Fire Game of the Week between two real garbage 1-3 teams who are both miserable to watch right now.  Even better, the spread is this tiny because they both equally blow in every way.  Of course, I’m going to go with the Broncos simply because Russel Wilson is offensively better than Zach Wilson along with the mile-high factor in Denver, and Sean Payton as their Head Coach.  Also, the Broncos may feel they’re on the upswing considering they just barely beat another garbage team in Week 4. Unfortunately, I lost that pick simply because the spread was 3.5 and the Broncos beat the Bears by only 3!!  Ultimately, plugging in the same formula I applied last week but with a 1.5 spread instead of 3.5.

KC SWIFTS -5.5: Don’t let any offensive numbers fool you that the Vikings are any good, considering the only team they’ve beaten has been the gawd awful Panthers.  But I also need you to know that I’ve picked the Vikings wrong every week except Week 4 simply because the Vikings were playing the Panthers (a dumpster fire).  So if you’re going to fade me on any pick, this might be the one considering the Chiefs barely beat the Jets last week. However, Taylor Swift might be in attendance and she’s been 2-0 since attending so…

49ERS -3.5: This game is going to be great! Two great teams with decent offense and defense that have really done well so far.  Especially the undefeated 49ers.  So how do we pick a side here?  Well, let’s start with a home-field advantage and the fact that the 49ers killed the Cardinals 35-16 vs the Cowboys who lost to them 28-16 in Week 3. Also like to note that Brock Purdy has yet to throw an interception, but again, not too much else here in the stat box aside from slightly better offensive yardage over the Cowboys when plugging in the numbers.

PACKERS -1.5: The biggest factor in this game is Jimmy Garoppolo (QB) coming into this game off concussion protocol with absolutely no practice time and having already thrown 6 interceptions in the short time he’s played.  Additionally, the Packers have Aaron Jones and  AJ Dillon to either score touchdowns or gain enough rushing yards to kick a field goal in this one.  Lastly, the Raiders have been a disappointment so far, even losing to the shitty Steelers at their own home opener.  I am not boasting that the Packers are amazing, but theirs just too much negative juju to put any money on the Raiders right now and a 1.5 spread makes this pick a lot easier in favor of the quesoheads

FINAL THOUGHTS

OK, so the majority of my picks in Week 5 are the favorites this week, however, sometimes matchups line up like stars where there are real justifiable reasons to pick the favorites aside from being favorites. Finally, it’s been fun blogging my picks this NFL season considering I’ve never actually blogged before as we just implemented this thing like 5 weeks ago here at Chabdog Sports! Especially learning how to do things, like embedding tweets like you see above. Of course, it takes me like 40 times longer to write this thing out since there’s no real instruction manual on how to work this thing, but it’s been fun figuring it out, and glad that Chabdog Sports has this amazing website that does so many cool things that is similar to what I’ve seen my gawd brudder, “Frank The Tank”, do over at Barstool Sports. Can’t tell you how much I’ve seen this place grow since I’ve been here

| | @darthvaber99