Hey everyone and welcome to another episode of me making shitty picks based on flawed science, numbies based solely on Taylor Swift’s game attendance, and very mistaken logic since my current record is:
Week 1: 6 Week 2: 8 Week 3: 6 Week 4: 8 Week 5: 6 Week 6: 11 Week 7: 4 Week 8: 7 Week 9: 10
Also, need to honorably mention that fading me statistically (51.75%) gives you a better chance of making any money from my NFL picks, hence, Abe’s Shitty NFL Picks. So let’s try this again with the goal of trying to pick more right games than wrong ones in Week 10!
PANTHERS | BEARS -3.5: I lost this game by .5 point as the final score was 13-16 Bears. I truly am a POS.
— Abe (@DarthVaber99) November 9, 2023
COLTS -1.5 | PATRIOTS: Two very terrible teams square off against each other with the Colts coming into this one with a better record, a better offense, and in Frankfurt. So no team here truly has the home-field advantage as most Europeans are simply there to see an NFL game. The only other advantage the Colts have here is a little confidence after beating the Panthers in Week 9 and the ability to score 25+ points against the SAINTS and the BROWNS even though they lost the games. However, the PATRIOTS are neither the SAINTS nor the BROWNS, and why the COLTS are slightly favored in this one (and my pick).
49ERS | JAGUARS +3: The 49ERS look great offensively with their star QB, RB, and WR showing better offensive numbies than the JAGS, however, the 49ERS are coming into this one with a 3-game losing streak against teams with a worse record than the JAGS. On the flip side, I can’t even recall when the JAGS even lost a game as they’re currently 6-2 and playing at home in this one. Lastly, the JAGS have beaten their last 5 opponents by more than 3 points and they’re coming off a BYE week. Lock it in…JAGS.
SAINTS -2.5 | VIKINGS: The VIKINGS are in a funky place as both Justin Jefferson (WR) and Kirk Cousins (QB) are on the IR. However, I like Joshua Dobbs AKA “Passtronaut”, and do hope he can put his rocket scientist mind to good use for the VIKINGS (rooting for the nerd). However, we still have a lot of unknowns here and they’re coming against Derek Carr and the SAINTS with more offensive weapons and more playing time. Simply taking experience over uncertainty & beyond in this one.
TITANS | BUCS -1.5: Here we have another two teams with the same W-L record battling it out this week with the BUCS coming into this one as the hometown favorites. Probably even more so now that Ryan Tannehill has been replaced with Will Levis for the remainder of the season who will be making his third start for the team with a 1-1 record. Hard to see a rookie QB beating out a more experienced one in Tampa Bay in this one, but glad the spread is tiny.
BROWNS | RAVENS -6: The RAVENS have easily won their last 4 games by more than 6 points, and it shouldn’t be a problem for them against a BROWNS team that has a rusty Deshaun Watson (QB) who still doesn’t feel 100% with his rotator cuff strain. Little things that can make a big difference here against a RAVENS team that has been dominating their last 4 games and at home in this one.
TEXANS +6.5 | BENGALS: The TEXANS have done great in trying to keep games close or even winning them this season. C.J. Stroud (QB) has also been impressive going for 2270 yards for 14TD with only 1 interception. Again, very impressive with better numbies than Joe Burrow. The other thing that is in favor of the TEXANS is that the BENGALS star WR, Ja’Marr Chase, is still listed as questionable with back soreness. Things that could affect the BENGALS offensive game even if he does play. Hard to see the BENGALS run away with this one. Lock in on the TEXANS with this fat spread.
PACKERS | STEELERS -3: The PACKERS and the STEELERS have not been amazing so far, but the STEELERS have been better in beating the Titans, the Rams, and the Ravens by more than 3 points in the last month. Additionally, the STEELERS have had a few extra rest days than the PACKERS with a home-field advantage that is looking to beat the PACKERS by more than 3 points in this one.
FALCONS -1.5 | CARDINALS: QB Kyler Murray is returning after being out for 11 months for a torn ACL to his right knee. Combine a rusty QB with RB James Conner also coming off the IR for things to swing in favor of the FALCONS with a low spread working for them in this one.
LIONS -2.5 | CHARGERS: The LIONS are coming off a bye week with a 6-2 record and a great offense. The CHARGERS are coming off a two-game winning streak, but only putting it together to beat the Jets and the Bears. Two teams that are not as strong as the LIONS. Well-rested LIONS to challenge the Chargers at home.
GIANTS | COWBOYS -16.5: You know the GIANTS are bad when taking the COWBOYS at -16.5 points. However, when you factor in that the GIANTS have no QB, and the best they can do is Tommy DeVito in Dallas, ooooooooooooooooooooooooooffffff, this team is cooooooooked!!!
COMMANDERS +6.5 | SEAHAWKS: The SEAHAWKS are favored in this game by 6.5 points, yet the SEAHAWKS have not been able to beat a team by that much since playing the Cardinals in Week 7 and the COMMANDERS are no Cardinals. Lastly, the SEAHAWKS just lost badly to the Ravens and could not even score more than 3 points in Week 9. So technically, the SEAHWAKS couldn’t even score enough points in their last game to even make the spread in this one..let alone beat a team by this many points. Lock it in, COMMANDERS +6.5.
JETS | RAIDERS +1.5: The JETS got crucified last week with QB Zach Wilson getting sacked over and over again by the Chargers while the RAIDERS demolished the GIANTS 30-6. Yet, the RAIDERS are not favored in this one and at home. Yes, we can look at what the Raiders have done so far and say they havn’t been great, but they also changed coach and things appear to have gotten better for them since then. So lets let Antonio Pierce cook and see what he has in store for the Jets in this one considering he’s 1-0 as the new Raiders coach.
BRONCOS +7.5 | BILLS: The BILLS are in a funky spot this season but mostly a dissapointment in the last 5 games. Especially since they’ve not been able to beat any team by 7.5 since Week 4. Including the dumpster fire Giants in Week 6. The BRONCOS have also been garbage, but they’ve also managed to beat the KC Chiefs in Week 9 and the Packers in Week 8. So we got the BRONCOS in an upswing and the BILLS in a downswing with the Broncos coming off a BYE Week. All things that are screaming that the BRONCOS are not going to get beaten by 7.5 points in this one.
*All odds courtesy of Bet MGM on 11/08/2023
Let me know in the comments your thoughts on Week 10 below, or where posted
| | @darthvaber99
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