Hey everyone and welcome to another episode of me making shitty picks based on flawed science, numbies based solely on Taylor Swift’s game attendance, and mistaken logic since my current record is:
Week 1: 6 Week 2: 8 Week 3: 6 Week 4: 8 Week 5: 6 Week 6: 11 Week 7: 4
Also, need to honorably mention that fading me statistically (53.33%) gives you a way better chance of making any money from my NFL picks, hence, Abe’s Shitty NFL Picks. So let’s try this again with the goal of trying to pick more right games than wrong ones in Week 8!
BILLS -8.5: Baker Mayfield (QB) is currently listed as questionable for this matchup against the Bills so there’s a good chance the Bucs hurt offense will not be able to catch up to the Bills allowing them to cover the 8.5 point spread.
PATRIOTS +9.5: The Dolphins have both WR Tyreek Hill (hip injury) and RB Raheem Mostert (ankle injury) listed as questionable which would be a huge blow to their offense if they do not play against a Patriots team who just beat the Buffalo Bills in Week 7. Both Mostert and Hill have put in huge offensive numbies so far this season, and without them, it will be difficult to beat the Patriots by more than 9.5 points.
JETS -3: The Giants may have recently beaten the Commanders in Week 7, however, they’ve been gawd awful before then. Additionally, the Giants RB Saquon Barkley is currently listed as questionable (elbow), which only further helps the Jets cover the spread in this one. Ultimately, the Jets have beaten the Eagles (Week 7) and the Broncos (Week 6) by more than 3 points so I do not see how any of this would suggest the Jets would not be able to cover the spread in this one.
JAGUARS -2.5: Last week I did not pick the Jaguars simply because I did not think Trevor Lawerence (QB) would be plowing through the Saints wearing a knee brace as he was checked off as questionable. Again, Lawerence is listed as questionable for this game, but won’t be surprised to see him out on the field again wearing his knee brace and plowing through the Steelers to cover the spread in Pittsburgh.
FALCONS -3: I didn’t get a lot of games right last week, but I did get the Falcons right considering they had better offensive and defensive numbers to beat the Bucs. The same applies here, as the Falcons find themselves in a similar situation over the Titans (except that the Bucs are a slightly better team) and will use the same winning formula I used last week to make this pick.
TEXANS -3: The 0-6 Panthers are horrendous and simply can’t compute a scenario where they’re going to be anywhere near the 3-point spread against the Texans in this one. Especially against a team that has already beaten the Saints, the Steelers & the Jaguars.
RAMS +6.5: The Rams have all the offensive numbies in their favor to not only cover the spread but to outright beat the Cowboys at AT&T. However, both teams have been hit or miss this season, and with that kind of record, it’s hard to trust any of these teams with that kind of spread. Going to side with Rams here to keep this game truer to their actual numbies.
VIKINGS -1: WTF happened to the Packers this season? Yes, we all knew Jordan Love wasn’t going to have a perfect season, but to lose to both the Raiders (Week 6) and the Broncos (Week 7) back to back is simply screaming your team is a raging…flaming…dumpster fire. Yes, the Vikings have not been stellar this season either, but they did beat the 49ers last week, and if they can do that, what makes anyone think they cannot beat the Packers by 1 point in this Pick’em game?
SAINTS +1: The Saints and the Colts are simply two garbage teams battling it out to be crowned king of the dump on Sunday. These two teams have an identical track record and are both coming off a losing streak. The Saints are coming into this game with 3 additional rest days and a better defense. The only issue I have with the Saints is that Derek Carr has had some issues connecting with his offensive players, although not entirely his fault. Again, not too much separating these teams here, but handing the slight advantage to the Saints in this Pick’em game.
EAGLES -6.5: The Eagles have clearly demonstrated that they can get the ball down the field by killing the Dolphins in Week 7 using their immaculate tush push strategy to get the extra yards they need for a first down and killing them by way more than the spread we have in this match up. Easy breezy money.
SEAHAWKS -3.5: PJ Walker will start for the Browns against the Seahawks, which could favor the Hawks in this game at home. The only thing going for the Browns in this one is their defense, however, the Colts proved in Week 7 that they could get 38 points out of them and I assume the Hawks will be watching some film on that this week.
RAVENS -8.5: The Cardinals have lost their four last games by 10+ points while beating the Lions by 30+ points in Week 7. Signs that the Ravens shouldn’t have a problem covering the spread.
CHIEFS -7: The Broncos once again find themselves playing the Chiefs who lost to them 19-8. I’m sure they’ll work on fixing those mistakes this week, however, execution is where the money is at and I don’t think they have what it takes to cover the spread.
BENGALS -5.5: Brock Purdy is questionable, is in concussion protocol, and will probably not play in this one. That being said, we can expect the 49ers to not play as well as they would normally do against this Bengals team. Also, keep in mind that the 49ers are on a losing streak while the Bengals are on a winning one.
BEARS +8.5: The West Coast Bears (Chargers) are in no position to beat anyone by 8.5 points, especially after giving up more than 432 yards this season and being an utter disappointment to Chargers Superfan Merianne Do who has gone 0-2 since going viral.
LIONS -8.5: Both the Raiders and the Lions lost by great margins in Week 7, however, the Raiders have been consistently not so good whereas the Lions have been consistently pretty dominant prior to last week’s game. Jimmy Garoppolo (QB) is currently listed as questionable for this game for his back, but will most likely return in this matchup per the latest reports. However, Jimmy G has already thrown 8 interceptions this season which is concerning since he hasn’t played 8 games which could help the Lions cover the spread if he throws another interception in this one. Leaning on the Raiders dropping the ball in Detroit in true Raiders fashion.
*All odds courtesy of Bet MGM on 10/25/2023
Let me know in the comments your thoughts on Week 8 below, or wherever you find this posted on social media
| | @darthvaber99
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