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Merry Christmas! Roger Goodell gave his haters a special gift this year by figuring out how to play NFL football on a Wednesday while lining the owners’ pockets with Netflix money. That’s great news for those of us who thought we would have to watch the NBA on Christmas. The only thing that can make the deal better is if I can get a couple of picks correct. The Steelers are down bad after two straight double-digit losses to Super Bowl contenders, but now they are home underdogs against the Chiefs, and I love their chances to win outright even though Kansas City has finally started covering spreads. In its only other road dog spot this season, Pittsburgh defeated the Ravens outright. In the late game, Baltimore looks to cover as a road favorite for the third time in a row. I’m happy to lay those points with how Lamar Jackson and the offense have played all year.
For the Boxing Day special, I am doing the square thing and taking Seattle. It has been a long time coming, but I finally have confidence in the Seahawks again, even if it is only because they are playing a Chicago team that has lost nine in a row, with the last three coming by at least two scores.
The Chargers coming east on a short week is a little scary, but they play an east coast style of ball, so I will bank on them bludgeoning New England. The Bengals are finally hitting their stride, but I don’t think they hold off Bo Nix and the bucking Broncos. Arizona is in a tailspin, which means that it is time to Ram It. Sean McVay’s team is coming off ATS wins against two other tailspin teams in the 49ers and Jets.
Sunday will feel strange with just nine games on the slate, but Green Bay at Minnesota should be a great game. The spread being fewer than three points is a little disrespectful to the Vikings, so I will roll with them. In the late afternoon, almost everyone will be watching the Cowboys and Eagles. Let’s go with Dallas and the huge number since Dem Boyz have won four of five and have figured out how to run the ball lately. In prime time, I like how Michael Penix Jr. looked in his first start enough to take Atlanta in Washington’s letdown spot. Laying points with the Lions is the squarest pick of the week for me, but they came through as a big road favorite last week, so it must be done.
What we learned today in the NFL —
— Dallas does have some pride after all
— Tampa Bay is jinxed
— New England is both pesky and pitiful at the same time
— Cincy is on a mission… possibly to nowhere
— Cleveland is DOA with DTR
— Miami still looks like one of the best of those who get a rest after Week 18.
— The Rams have a great coach, a great QB, some great receivers, a money RB and a scrappy defense …. which might be all they need to win the NFC
— The Eagles can’t get a Super Bowl ticket with Pickett
— Detroit should not consider Chicago a tune up for anything,… including the Vikings
— Atlanta seems to be rising like a Phoenix, with Penix
Hey everyone and welcome to NFL Week 16 where I try to beat the spread every week, make a little money, or brag to our work besties that we simply pick winners cause our state doesn’t allow sports betting yet (fuck you California). So take a look below…let me know in the comments section if I fucked this up or on any of my social media handles (note my Week 15 picks were 87.5% on the money). Let’s fucking gooooooooo.
| | @gawdbrudder
I went 9-7 last week and clawed to within 15 games of .500 at 104-119-1 with three weeks to play. That ground is not impossible to make up, but it is going to take foresight, discipline, and some hefty road favorites covering this week. Just look at that Detroit line at Chicago. It’s over a touchdown even though the Lions were shredded on defense last week and nearly allowed a miracle comeback by Caleb Williams on Thanksgiving. So why are we backing Detroit? Because this season, laying the big number with Detroit has paid off. The Lions are 3-1 against the spread when being favored by seven or more, and I expect them to pound the struggling Bears.
I am also taking the Rams, Eagles, Vikings, and Buccaneers as road favorites. They probably won’t all work out, but maybe they will go 3-1 since all four are surging right now while playing inferior competition. I actually like the Giants pick this week since they were able to move the ball a little against Baltimore and Michael Penix Jr. is making his first start for Atlanta. Maybe a rookie mistake or two will help the Giants intercept the ball for the third time this season.
I might not even watch the NFL on Saturday because of the College Football Playoff and a decent college hoops slate, but I expect Kansas City and Pittsburgh to come through for me. The Chiefs have transformed into favorites with the news that Patrick Mahomes is practicing fully this week, so getting two and a half points makes this one the easiest pick on the board. For the Steelers, they failed me as underdogs in Philadelphia, but I’m rolling with them again since they own Lamar Jackson.
Back to Sunday, I am becoming the Carolina whisperer as I smartly jumped off the bandwagon last week when Sir Purr and company became favorites against Dallas. However, now the Cats are back to being dogs and facing a floundering Cardinals team at home. Sign me back up!
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A Convoy of Bucs Will Be Trucking to the Endzone Come Thursday…
RIP Kris Kristofferson, who recently passed.
As for passing, Baker will be cooking up some more good stuff for his NFC Southern Buds this Thursday Night in Atlanta.
Here I go again picking against the Falcons. Why? Well, why not,given the Bucs’ tough run defense, and gotta go with
their QB with the hot hand…. yes, he will keep the endzone convoy going this week against a Falcon defense that just isn’t
that tough. Bucs beaet that skinny little spread, and actually win the game. All the way with Tampa on Thursday.
Getting to know the “Bagel Twins”…
As we near the onset of the High Holy Days and the beginning of the Jewish New Year/Rosh Hashannah, it seems appropriate to highlight the eerily parallel careers of the “Bagel Twins”… Harold Solomon and Fast “Eddie” Dibbs.
Solomon was a bit of a tennis legend in the area where I grew up, attending Springbrook High School in Montgomery County, Maryland, achieving All-American status at Rice University, and gaining much fame in pro tennis as purveyor of the “moonball”, an often deep, highly arched shot with lots of savory topspin that could wreak much havoc on a clay court. He hit his backhand a bit like a player trying to sky one out to centerfield, and it was quite interesting to watch. Harold made it to the finals of the French Open in 1976 (losing to Panatta) and also got to the quarters twice and the semis twice in Paris. He also made the semis at the US Open in 1980, when he achieved his highest ranking of No. 5 in the world. He won 22 singles titles and was runner up 16 times. His other claim to fame being named one of the world’s 10 sexiest men by Playgirl Magazine … apparently, his resemblance to Warren Beatty did not go unnoticed.
His doubles partner was Eddie Dibbs, and Eddie’s career played out much the same way. Eddie also won 22 singles titles, and was runner up 20 times. Unlike Harold, Eddie never made a Grand Slam final, but he made two semis at the French (losing to Vilas in 1975 and, like Solomon, to Panatta in 1976), and like Solomon, was a clay court specialist who dominated the Top 10 rankings in the mid to late 70s, achieved his highest ranking at No. 5, and was Jewish. In fact, Eddie was arguably the greatest of all American clay courters in the Open era, garnering the most victories and 7th most all time. Eddie never made the Playgirl list, but he did seem to have a bit of Dudley Moore in him.
With so much in common and given their shared cultural and religious heritage, what else could they be called than the Bagel Twins.
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NASCAR Preview: 4EVER 400 by MOBIL 1
Hello, Chabdog racing fans, and welcome to Homestead Miami Speedway and the second of three races for the Round of 8 in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs! Also, need to mention that we will be racing on the 1.5-mile oval vs the inside road course configuration. Lastly, need to mention that this course has an amazing virtual tour that allows you to explore this track in greater detail @ Homestead-Miami Speedway (panowalks.com)
Source: Homestead-Miami Speedway (panowalks.com)
Source: Miami Homestead Track Layout – Bing images
Qualifying is done for this race, and I’ve posted the Top 10 drivers as shown below:
Source: Homestead-Miami Speedway Race Results, Lineup | Official Site Of NASCAR
Below are our current playoff standings (Round of 8). Please note that the Round of 8 is made up of 3 races: Las Vegas Motor Speedway (10/15), Homestead-Miami Speedway (10/22), and Martinsville Speedway (10/29). Today, we expect all the playoff drivers to push hard to either win this race or gain as many points as possible by staying at the very front of the pack with the exception of Kyle Larson who has already clinched a spot for the Championship 4 race. Finally, a win here or in Martinsville next week will automatically clinch that driver for the Championship 4 race at Phoenix Raceway.
Source: 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs | Official Site Of NASCAR
Every week the Chabdog Sports Team makes on-air picks on the show for the upcoming NASCAR race and earns points based on the following criteria:
: Anyone who picks the winning driver gets 3 points.
: Anyone who picks the 2nd place driver gets 2 points.
: Anyone who picks the 3rd place driver gets 1 point.
Lastly, if no one picks a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd place driver then 1 point is awarded to the picked driver that is closest to the podium. Therefore, in our fantasy game, someone from the team always walks away with a point.
For those who are unavailable to make a pick, or do not make a pick prior to the start of the race, then that person is given the “chalk pick”. The “chalk pick” is the poll position driver for that week’s race. This week’s “chalk pick” is Martin Truex Jr.
Last week’s race results:
Source: Las Vegas Motor Speedway Race Results, Lineup | Official Site Of NASCAR
My pick: Martin Truex Jr.
Lastly, sound off who you think our podium winner is for today’s race in the comments below!
With that, let’s get ready to NAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAASCAR!
| | @darthvaber99
Week 7: Abe’s Shitty NFL Picks (AST)
Hey everyone and welcome to another episode of me making shitty picks based on flawed science, numbies based solely on Taylor Swift’s game attendance, and mistaken logic since my current record is:
Week 1: 6 Week 2: 8 Week 3: 6 Week 4: 8 Week 5: 6 Week 6: 11
Also, need to honorably mention that fading me statistically (51.1%) gives you a way better chance of making any money from my NFL picks, hence, Abe’s Shitty NFL Picks. So let’s try this again with the goal of trying to pick more right games than wrong ones in Week 7!
SAINTS -1*: The real issue in this Thursday Night Football Game is Trevor Lawrance (QB) being listed as questionable due to a right knee injury and this is no bueno for the JAGS. Without Trevor, the Saints will be both offensively and defensively a better team in New Orleans with the “who dat” crowd cheering them on.
SAINTS -1: The real issue in this TNF Game is T. Lawerance (QB) being listed as questionable due to a right knee injury & this is no bueno 4 the JAGS. Without Trevor, da Saints will be both offensively & defensively a better team in N.O. with the “who dat” crowd cheering dem on. https://t.co/Bq5HeEXYP2
— Abe (@DarthVaber99) October 19, 2023
LIONS +3*: The Lions have started the season well going 5-1 playing against the 4-2 Ravens. Offensively the Lions simply have a better stack of weapons coming into this away game. Additionally, the Lions have only allowed 64.7 rushing yards this season which will put considerable pressure on Lamar Jackson (QB) who also leads the Ravens in rushing yards to possibly throw more balls and risk an interception. The Lions have won their last four games, are hot, and hope they use this winning momentum to cover the spread or outright beat the Ravens.
RAIDERS -3*: What an absolute dumpster fire of a game is scheduled with this one as both J. Garoppolo (QB) and J. Field (QB) are out with both teams sealing their fate with backup QBs. I have no idea what shitstorm awaits us, but it will be very entertaining watching this dumpster fire of a game. Either way, I expect J. Jacobs (RB) from the Raiders to get the ball a lot in this one against a Chicago Bears team that has already lost their lead rusher (K. Herbert) to the IR. I expect the dumpster fire Raiders to crucify the dumpster fire Bears in this game.
COLTS +2.5*: As of right now, D. Watson is still questionable for this matchup and will roll the dice that he won’t play in this game, or play like a QB who’s missed a lot of practice. Either way, this should give the home-field advantage Colts another slight advantage in this game. Problems for the Colts include a strong Browns defense that might keep this game close, but offset by a weaker Browns offense. Colts to keep this game interesting at home.
BILLS -8.5*: The 4-2 Bills are simply going to kill the Patriots as the team has only been able to pull off one win against a Zach Wilson’s Jets team. Although the Patriots were able to keep the game close against the garbage Raiders in Week 6, let’s all keep in mind that the Buffalo Bills are not the Raiders. Lastly, let’s not all forget the Patriots lost to the Saints and the Cowboys by more than 30 points and we’re only looking for 8.5 here.
COMMIES (COMMANDERS) -1.5*: The numbies show that offensively (QB, WR, RB) are simply better than the New York Giants. Let’s throw the Giants, QB D. Jones, and RB S. Barkley into the questionable list and we’re simply looking at a catastrophe in New Jersey this week. Fortunately for us, we only need to win by 1.5 points to cash out on this bet.
FALCONS +2.5*: The Falcons may have a slightly worse record than the Bucs, but their stats show that they’ve done more than the Bucs offensively and defensively and it shows as a tight spread (see below). Additionally, the Falcons have no injured players and are playing with a fully healthy team. The only concern I have is D. Riddler (QB) already throwing 6 interceptions and the Bucs capitalizing on it.
Source: Falcons vs. Buccaneers (Oct 22, 2023) Live Score – ESPN
STEELERS +3*: The deciding factor in this game for me is that the Rams star RB K. Williams is out & weakening the offense of the Rams enough for the Steelers to cover the game. However, Mathew Stafford (QB) has other options that he can use including WR P. Nacua to to keep this game in favor of the Rams. However, Stafford has also given up 6 interceptions this season which could benefit the Steelers if he throws another one. Lastly, the Steelers beat the AFC North Leader (Ravens) last week suggesting that they can keep the Rams in check this week.
CARDINALS +7.5*: The Seahawks are going into this home game with DK Metcalf (WR) possibly sidelined as he is still marked as questionable for this week’s game. Additionally, Metcalf has been a penalty pain in the ass for the Seahawks and could prove once again to drag his team under the penalty bus if he does play. Little things that can slow the Seahawks enough to not cover the spread. On the flip side, the Cardinals have been able to put up similar offensive numbies minus the injuries to keep this game closer than the Seahawks would like.
PACKERS -1*: Looks like we have another pick’em game against two teams that have lost more games than won this season, and boy do we have garbage against garbage here. The only real difference in this game is that both A. Dillion (RB) and A. Jones (RB) for the Packers could be suited up for this one. Unfortunately, we do not really know about A. Jones until 90 minutes before the game. Either way, the well-rested Packers are facing a Broncos team that has given up more than 458 yards this season which could favor them in this one.
CHIEFS -5.5*: The Chargers just played on Monday and will be back at it in less than a week after losing to the Cowboys. This time they’re walking into another brutal game against the Chiefs who’ve had the luxury of 4 additional rest days and a better defense. That being said, the Chargers and Chiefs are evenly matched offensively and the Chargers have been able to keep games close, but again, not much rest coming into this one with any mistake favoring the Chiefs to rack up more than 5.5 points, which is very doable in this one.
Dolphins +2*: Yes, the Eagles are good, and yes, so are the Dolphins. This right here might be the Superbowl game as we get to watch one of the most anticipated games this week with me leaning on the Dolphins due to their powerhouse offense that has kept this game’s spread super tight. The Eagles have a lot of ammunition in this one with the Dolphins giving up way more rushing yards than passing yards which D. Swift (RB) could capitalize on. However, the Dolphins are the clear winners offensively as long as the football’s laces are facing out Finkle.
49ERS -6.5*: The 49ers are really good this season and have dominated every single game this season with the exception of the Cleveland Browns in Week 6. The Vikings on the other hand have great offensive numbies but have proven to lose the majority of their games despite K. Cousins (QB) throwing 14 touchdown passes and going for 1679 yards this season. Something that I feel will continue into this game as I have given up all hope on this team unless they can start proving some form of turnaround which I don’t expect to happen in this one. Either way, the 49ers are looking for a feel-good game after losing to the Browns, and winning here by a touchdown + is a good way to start that 49ers winning momentum once again.
*Odds courtesy of Bet MGM on 10/18/2023
FINAL THOUGHTS
Wow, look at what I did in Week 6 with 11 AST picks and proving that you could have parlayed all of them, retired, and be now living on your private island. Hopefully, I will make another double-digit run in Week 7 keeping in mind I’ve already lost one to the Saint on Thursday night. Looks like this week I have balanced the books by only picking 7 favored teams even though it just worked out to be like that based on my sophisticated formula for picking games. Also, someone needs to ask why Chabdog Sports calls the Commanders “Commies” but I’ll say it’s an improvement over calling them the “Foreskins” which we had in place for the longest time. Lastly, I am simply amazed every week that we’re still in business considering the amount of shenanigans we pull off, and happy to still have a place here to pencil in all my thoughts considering that blogging only started at Chabdog 7 weeks ago!
Let me know in the comments your thoughts on Week 7 below, or wherever you find this posted on my socials @
| | @darthvaber99
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