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Merry Christmas! Roger Goodell gave his haters a special gift this year by figuring out how to play NFL football on a Wednesday while lining the owners’ pockets with Netflix money. That’s great news for those of us who thought we would have to watch the NBA on Christmas. The only thing that can make the deal better is if I can get a couple of picks correct. The Steelers are down bad after two straight double-digit losses to Super Bowl contenders, but now they are home underdogs against the Chiefs, and I love their chances to win outright even though Kansas City has finally started covering spreads. In its only other road dog spot this season, Pittsburgh defeated the Ravens outright. In the late game, Baltimore looks to cover as a road favorite for the third time in a row. I’m happy to lay those points with how Lamar Jackson and the offense have played all year.
For the Boxing Day special, I am doing the square thing and taking Seattle. It has been a long time coming, but I finally have confidence in the Seahawks again, even if it is only because they are playing a Chicago team that has lost nine in a row, with the last three coming by at least two scores.
The Chargers coming east on a short week is a little scary, but they play an east coast style of ball, so I will bank on them bludgeoning New England. The Bengals are finally hitting their stride, but I don’t think they hold off Bo Nix and the bucking Broncos. Arizona is in a tailspin, which means that it is time to Ram It. Sean McVay’s team is coming off ATS wins against two other tailspin teams in the 49ers and Jets.
Sunday will feel strange with just nine games on the slate, but Green Bay at Minnesota should be a great game. The spread being fewer than three points is a little disrespectful to the Vikings, so I will roll with them. In the late afternoon, almost everyone will be watching the Cowboys and Eagles. Let’s go with Dallas and the huge number since Dem Boyz have won four of five and have figured out how to run the ball lately. In prime time, I like how Michael Penix Jr. looked in his first start enough to take Atlanta in Washington’s letdown spot. Laying points with the Lions is the squarest pick of the week for me, but they came through as a big road favorite last week, so it must be done.
What we learned today in the NFL —
— Dallas does have some pride after all
— Tampa Bay is jinxed
— New England is both pesky and pitiful at the same time
— Cincy is on a mission… possibly to nowhere
— Cleveland is DOA with DTR
— Miami still looks like one of the best of those who get a rest after Week 18.
— The Rams have a great coach, a great QB, some great receivers, a money RB and a scrappy defense …. which might be all they need to win the NFC
— The Eagles can’t get a Super Bowl ticket with Pickett
— Detroit should not consider Chicago a tune up for anything,… including the Vikings
— Atlanta seems to be rising like a Phoenix, with Penix
Hey everyone and welcome to NFL Week 16 where I try to beat the spread every week, make a little money, or brag to our work besties that we simply pick winners cause our state doesn’t allow sports betting yet (fuck you California). So take a look below…let me know in the comments section if I fucked this up or on any of my social media handles (note my Week 15 picks were 87.5% on the money). Let’s fucking gooooooooo.
| | @gawdbrudder
I went 9-7 last week and clawed to within 15 games of .500 at 104-119-1 with three weeks to play. That ground is not impossible to make up, but it is going to take foresight, discipline, and some hefty road favorites covering this week. Just look at that Detroit line at Chicago. It’s over a touchdown even though the Lions were shredded on defense last week and nearly allowed a miracle comeback by Caleb Williams on Thanksgiving. So why are we backing Detroit? Because this season, laying the big number with Detroit has paid off. The Lions are 3-1 against the spread when being favored by seven or more, and I expect them to pound the struggling Bears.
I am also taking the Rams, Eagles, Vikings, and Buccaneers as road favorites. They probably won’t all work out, but maybe they will go 3-1 since all four are surging right now while playing inferior competition. I actually like the Giants pick this week since they were able to move the ball a little against Baltimore and Michael Penix Jr. is making his first start for Atlanta. Maybe a rookie mistake or two will help the Giants intercept the ball for the third time this season.
I might not even watch the NFL on Saturday because of the College Football Playoff and a decent college hoops slate, but I expect Kansas City and Pittsburgh to come through for me. The Chiefs have transformed into favorites with the news that Patrick Mahomes is practicing fully this week, so getting two and a half points makes this one the easiest pick on the board. For the Steelers, they failed me as underdogs in Philadelphia, but I’m rolling with them again since they own Lamar Jackson.
Back to Sunday, I am becoming the Carolina whisperer as I smartly jumped off the bandwagon last week when Sir Purr and company became favorites against Dallas. However, now the Cats are back to being dogs and facing a floundering Cardinals team at home. Sign me back up!
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Law Offices of Brandon S. Chabner
Brandon’s Posts
ChabDog subjects the Week 4 spreads to psychoanalysis:
— Could anything be more unstable than Carr’s ego? Yes, the Falcons’ grip on anything better than mediocrity. Going with NO.
— Gifting the Bears with 3 point favorite status seems completely delusional. I learned my lesson and am taking the Rams.
— Love is in the air in Green Bay, and that spells trouble for the Purple People Defeaters. Going Green Bay.
— Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. The Steelers tend to do great every time they play the Colts (27-7 alltime). This will be no different.
— Denver hasn’t fully resolved its low T (as in low talent) and pre-mature, rookie QB issues; Aaron and the Jets make them pay by more than 7.
— Tampa suffers a convenient case of amnesia, but still remembers from last year’s playoffs how to mount and stuff the Eagles.
— Red Rocket’s in flight… afternoon delight for home team. Tiny Panthers figure out how to hold it close against the wimpy Bengals.
— J-ville will feel better about itself after this game, even though leave as losers … the 6.5 points is just a little too rich.
— Really tired of believing in the desert do dos. Commanders have lately shown a lot more command of their offense; they keep their poise in a close game with the Cards.
— If the Niners can’t bully the Patriots into an 11 point loss, they really aren’t who we thought they were. They can do it.
— This definitely could be the week that “good” Cleveland shows up; however, I just can’t bring myself to buy in to that horrid Browns’ offense. Please don’t commit me for going with the Raiders.
— Chargers tend to play the Chiefs tough, and with Herbie coming back there should be a positive attitude that keeps hope alive until the very end. I’ll take the 7.5.
— Just can’t stomach getting on the Bills’ bandwagon for this one. I know Balitmore has been totally erratic and unreliable, but my prediction is Jackson keeps up with Allen, and Tucker overcomes his jitters to hit a game winner.
— Don’t know how they’re going to do it, but Miami has got to win this game… let’s just say they win this for Mercury Morris, and by more than 1, against a TN team that is gearing up for the league worst boobie prize.
— Will be a feel good Monday Night in Motown for the partying Lions. They’ll win by more than, or at least, 4.
ChabDog’s Week 3 Deep Thoughts Against the Spread —
ChabDog’s Week 3 Deep Thoughts Against the Spread —
— Wildly irresponsible but I haven’t missed yet doubting the Jr. G-men…. Cleveland sacks the Gians by more than one score
— No way I’m going to be a dolt and go with the Colts. Da Bears get it done even though they’re only getting a half and 1
— I’ve had my quota of doubting Minnesota (go ahead and give Daring Darnold 4.5…. the no-run game Texans won’t get outta there alive)
— The Falcons made the Eggles look like Schmucks… just imagine what Norleans’ll do to them in the Big Quesy… no luck for the human Donald Jalen Duck and Frat Boy Siriano.,,, the 2.5 they’re getting is a slap in the face that just won’t hold up in the Saints place.
— The TJ Watt show continues in what should be a war of attrition.. And as for keeping the top QB job, I’m thinking Fields has plenty of ambition. Steelers scrap and claw for a three point victory, and my guess is Herbie isn’t feeling the love bug in Acrisure… ouch
— Tampa gives away 6.5 and still wins by a reading that’s way off the Richter Scale. Why? Because there’s not much to do in Denver when you’ve got a rookie QB and your offense is legally dead.
— Malik Dopey Gillis beats his former teammates? Nopey… I just can’t see it… two in a row, oh no… but terrible TN getting 2.5…. yeah maybe it’s time for them to get it done… but I don’t feel terribly good about saying it
— i confess,… I’ve jumped on the Gardner Gunsligher bandwagon… he just looks like he belongs in a Raider uni playing alongside Mad Maxx; yeah, I think the Raiders disconnect Scarolina and its Red Rocket by 6.5 and then some
— Things really break bad for the Dollyfins now that they’ve got to go with the guy named Skylar; Seattle candy crushes their opponents in the Emerald City.
— When’s the last time Zona was in the zone for two straight games? But then again, when’s the last time Detroit really look like it’s fire was lit. Goff has that deer lost in the headlights look again, and I think it continues for another week. Not deserting the Cards in the desert by 3.5
— They’re clearly predicting the end of the world for the Rams.. getting 7.5 at home against the humbled NIners; gotta believe the visitors have just enough to cover this, even if they only have a little (or no) Kittle.
— No I’m not gonna dignify the Chiefs giving 4.5 to the rehatched Falcones… that o-line is nasty and will require another Houdini escape by Walk this Way Mahomes.
— Buff stuffs the rag tag Jags … the pick here is for a Bills bludgeoning by at least six
— Cincy by more than a regular TD against anyone is asking a lot. But this is Washington, and they have a reason to want it more… yeah why not… (at least until I reverse my pick on the show)
—
— Dallas won’t come up lame against Larmar… gimme the Boys and the skinny line … they’ll be just fine
Well Read’s Posts
NFL Week One Picks Results
Picks by Well Read
Finally we can stop obsessing on societal issues and watch football! Bread and circuses my friends while America is engulfed in a five-alarm fire. Whatever is going to go down is going down whether we agree with it or not. But the circus is good.
Week One Picks
Deliberately took the chalk on KC and Philly and was rewarded with a 2 – 0 start. Chiefs look better than last year. Eagles are back but GB looked good.
Mike Tomlin is an exceptional coach but the Steelers QB’s suck! For that reason alone take the Falcons -2.5 even though Atlanta is all smoke and mirrors with a new coach and new offence.
7.5 is a lot to give the Bills against an enigmatic Cardinals team. It’s a trap. Take Cardinals +7.5
Tennessee just seems like a dirty, worn out team. Chicago as a 5.5 point favorite is dangerous. But Tennessee smells like garbage and Bears are attracted to garbage. Take Chicago -5.5
Patriots are odds on favorite to play in this season’s BlooperBowl. The donkey in the natti is healthy so take the Bengals -7.5
Everybody loves Houston but the Colts are a division rival and are good at rocking illusions fans have. Take the Colts +1.5
I wish I could say something good about Jacksonville. Take Miami -3.5
Until we see this season’s Carolina and New Orleans play a regulation game and comment regarding their respective abilities would not be factual. Therefore, take the Saints -4.5 as they are the home favorite
Minnesota is weak but the Giants are weaker still. Take Minnesota -0.5
The Raiders should be ashamed of themselves. Garnder Mincschew? That’s all you got? Take the Chargers -2.5
Not a lot of delta for the Denver vs. Seattle game either other than Seattle still has a top ranked D and Bronco’s are starting a rookie. Take Seahawks -4.5
Unless and until Deshaun Watson plays like a champion the Browns are going no where. Take Dallas -1.5
Washington is a smouldering dumpster fire and I don’t mean the Capitol. Take Tampa -4.5
Lions are just a better team than the Rams. Take Lions -3.5
The Jets are a paper tiger. Great individual player talent. Poor team skills. Take San Fran -6.5
Abe’s Posts
NASCAR Preview: South Point 400
Hello, Chabdog racing fans, and welcome to the Las Vegas Motor Speedway and the first race of the Round of 8 in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs!
Source: Las Vegas Motor Speedway Track Map – Bing images
Qualifying is done for today’s race, and I’ve posted the Top 10 drivers as shown below:
Source: Las Vegas Motor Speedway Race Results, Lineup | Official Site Of NASCAR
Below are our current playoff standings (Round of 8). Please note that the Round of 8 is made up of 3 races: Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Homestead-Miami Speedway, and Martinsville Speedway. Today, we expect all the playoff drivers to push hard to either win this race or gain as many points as possible by staying at the very front of the pack. Finally, a win at any of these 3 races automatically clinches that driver for the Championship 4 race at the Phoenix Raceway.
Source: 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs | Official Site Of NASCAR
Every week the Chabdog Sports Team makes on-air picks on the show for the upcoming NASCAR race and earns points based on the following criteria:
: Anyone who picks the winning driver gets 3 points.
: Anyone who picks the 2nd place driver gets 2 points.
: Anyone who picks the 3rd place driver gets 1 point.
Lastly, if no one picks a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd place driver then 1 point is awarded to the picked driver that is closest to the podium. Therefore, in our fantasy game, someone from the team always walks away with a point.
For those who are unavailable to make a pick, or do not make a pick prior to the start of the race, then that person is given the “chalk pick”. The “chalk pick” is the poll position driver for that week’s race. This week’s “chalk pick” is Christopher Bell.
Last week’s race results:
Source: Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course Race Results, Lineup | Official Site Of NASCAR
My pick: William Byron
Lastly, sound off who you think our podium winner is for today’s race in the comments below!
With that, let’s get ready to NAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAASCAR!
| | @darthvaber99
Week 6: Abe’s Shitty NFL Picks (AST)
Hey everyone and welcome to another episode of me making shitty picks based on flawed science, numbies based solely on Taylor Swift’s game attendance, and drunken logic since my current record is:
Week 1: 6 Week 2: 8 Week 3: 6 Week 4: 8 Week 5: 6
Also, need to honorably mention that fading me statistically gives you a way better chance of making any money from my NFL picks, hence, Abe’s Shitty NFL Picks. So let’s try this again with the goal of trying to pick more right games than wrong ones in Week 6!
KC SWIFTS (CHIEFS) -10.5: Made my Thursday Night Football Pick via X.com before the game. See the reply in the tweet below:
https://t.co/OCBzsaq9vi@chabdogsports
— Well Read Producer ChabDog.com (@NewportBest_) October 12, 2023
es here
RAVENS -4: Again we find ourselves in London, England for another great match on the pitch. I need you to know that I am 1-1 in predicting London games with last week’s Jags win over the Bills sucking for a lot of folks mate. However, this week the Jags are no longer in town as we see team Ravens-claw and the Titans-puffs go at it in a good old-fashioned quidditch match instead. Two teams that are kicked in the nutz by jet lag and partying at the pubs all night. Offensively and defensively the Ravewns have the higher ground and why they are favored in this game. However, I am concerned about their loss to the Steelers last week and am willing to call it a fluke considering they easily penetrated through the Browns’ defense the week prior. The Titans, are not the Browns, so I am expecting the Ravens to bounce back and kill the Titans by more than 4 points.
COMMIES (COMMANDERS) +2.5: Going with the underdog Commanders in this game simply because they have a better offense and have played against much better teams than the Falcons. Sure, they lost to the Eagles and the Bills, but keep in mind they sent that more recent Eagles game into OT 34-31. However, they’ve also lost to the Bears (a garbage team) and the Bills by 20 or more points. However, the Falcons are getting their Wins by beating Houston, Greenbay, and the Panthers. Three teams that are not that amazing. So taking all things into consideration, offense, defense, and past games, I expect this game to be close or flat-out beat the Falcons at home.
VIKINGS -2.5: Yes, we all know the Bears actually did something good and beat the Commanders by 20 points. Yes, we also know the Bears are garrrrrrrrrrbaggggggge and have been a complete catastrophe before that. I can also say that the Vikings have not been amazing this year, but do come into this game with better offense and defense. Therefore, I find myself in a similar situation as I did with the Panthers in Week 4 where I also picked the Vikings and won using the exact same philosophy. Why change something that works, I’m all in with the Vikings.
BENGALS -2.5: The Seahawks are coming off a bye-week and are probably feeling pretty energized after winning their last three games. However, Joe Burrow is feeling much better from his injured calf and showed a little dominance against the Cardinals. Offensively, the Bengals have all the right stuff to beat out the Seahawks at home with a mobile Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase connecting being major factors in making this pick.
49ERS -7: The Browns have really been hit-and-miss this season, and are coming off a bye-week. However, let us keep in mind that Deshaun Watson (QB) will not be playing in this game, and this simply sounds like a recipe for disaster for Cleveland. The 49ERS are RED HOT, and this game is simply SCREAMING 49ERS.
TEXANS +1.5: Derek Carr killed the Patriots last week so it may look easy to go with him this week as well. However, we all need to accept here that the Houston Texans are not the Patriots, they’re much better than them. HAHAHAHA…gawd has that team fallen into the abysmial pit since Tom Brady left. So need to factor that Houston is at home and has greater offensive numbies than the Saints. Maybe why this game’s spread is so small and validates my logic here.
JAGUARS -4: The Colts once again find themselves with Gardner Minshew who is seeking revenge on his former team. However, he’s coming up against a team that just beat the Buffalo Bills and who also has better offensive and defensive numbies than the Colts. Uphill battle for the Colts going into this one in Jacksonville.
DOLPHINS -13.5: Incredible to see such a huge spread, but then again it’s the Miami Dolphins against the absolute worst team in the league and in Miami chico. Been a while since Miami could command such a spread. The only thing I hate about this game is that RB De’von Achane is out on the IR till about Week 11. Now, had this been another team, I might have really considered a hard pass on this 13.5-point spread, but c’mon it’s Carolina. A Miami field day with this team is still in the realm of possibilities with the ability for the Panthers to lose by more than 20 points still on the table.
LIONS -3: The 4-1 Detroit Lions have done well this season and come into this Tampa game with WR Mike Evans with a high probability of not playing or being limited in this one for the Bucs. A huge factor to consider in this game. Sorry but the BUC stops here….LIONS.
RAIDERS -3: Wow, do the Patriots suck. Wow, do the Raiders suck. Raiders hopefully get Devante Adams (WR) in this one considering he’s still questionable. Not much to boast here aside from the Raiders being at home, and the Raiders finally seeing a W in Week 5, unlike the Patriots who haven’t seen one since September 24 against a Zach Wilson New York Jets team. Again, not much going on here except for two really bad teams playing near a Tacos El Gordo (the best part of this whole matchup).
RAMS -7: The Cardinals have lost their last two games by 14 or more points as their defense continues to crumble. The Rams on the other hand have the clear offensive advantage in this game at home, and should be able to penetrate the Cardinals’ defense by more than 7 points with Stafford (QB), Williams (RB) and Nacua (WR).
EAGLES -7: The undefeated Eagles take on the 2-3 New York Jets with no advantage here aside from being at home among many Eagles fans. However, the Jets have done well to keep it close against KC and beat the Buffalo Bills. However, the Birds were able to beat the Rams last week in LA by 9 points so 7 doesn’t seem impossible in New Jersey. Especially since Zach Wilson already has 5 interceptions this season and it would only take one more to get an easy extra 7 points on the board.
BILLS -14: The Giants have been a flaming dumpster fire all season and the Bills have been killing every team so far except for the Jags last week. Are the Bills coming here to feel good, try to crush this team, and show dominance once again??? I think so after that devastating loss against the Jags. Again, let’s not forget the Bills crushed the Dolphins by 28 points the week before and we all know the Giants are not the Miami Dolphins.
Chargers +2.5: The Chargers are coming off a bye-week in LA to play a Cowboys team that may be missing their RB Tony Pollard. No bueno for the Cowboys as that may impact their offense if he’s limited or not playing. The great news here, is that the Chargers are underdogs so anything close or a W is a cash out for us. Again, it’s a bye-week, they are at home, and Dallas may be out an RB making this an easy underdog pick.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Every week I seem to find a theme with my picks. Some weeks I lay heavily into the favorites. This week it seems I took all the big spreads and told Vegas to cash me out on every single one of them. To be clear, I don’t tell myself I am going to pick them all, but as I look at every game under the shitty microscope I tend to find enough fault in the other teams to justify taking the bigger point spreads. Lastly, check out my picks in greater detail on the show, along with our other co-host for an hour of fun before kickoff every Sunday this season. Let me know in the comments what you think about Week 6 here, or on whatever social media platform this is posted @
| | @darthvaber99
Dorothy’s Posts
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