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Hey everyone and welcome to NFL Week 16 where I try to beat the spread every week, make a little money, or brag to our work besties that we simply pick winners cause our state doesn’t allow sports betting yet (fuck you California). So take a look below…let me know in the comments section if I fucked this up or on any of my social media handles (note my Week 15 picks were 87.5% on the money). Let’s fucking gooooooooo.
| | @gawdbrudder
I went 9-7 last week and clawed to within 15 games of .500 at 104-119-1 with three weeks to play. That ground is not impossible to make up, but it is going to take foresight, discipline, and some hefty road favorites covering this week. Just look at that Detroit line at Chicago. It’s over a touchdown even though the Lions were shredded on defense last week and nearly allowed a miracle comeback by Caleb Williams on Thanksgiving. So why are we backing Detroit? Because this season, laying the big number with Detroit has paid off. The Lions are 3-1 against the spread when being favored by seven or more, and I expect them to pound the struggling Bears.
I am also taking the Rams, Eagles, Vikings, and Buccaneers as road favorites. They probably won’t all work out, but maybe they will go 3-1 since all four are surging right now while playing inferior competition. I actually like the Giants pick this week since they were able to move the ball a little against Baltimore and Michael Penix Jr. is making his first start for Atlanta. Maybe a rookie mistake or two will help the Giants intercept the ball for the third time this season.
I might not even watch the NFL on Saturday because of the College Football Playoff and a decent college hoops slate, but I expect Kansas City and Pittsburgh to come through for me. The Chiefs have transformed into favorites with the news that Patrick Mahomes is practicing fully this week, so getting two and a half points makes this one the easiest pick on the board. For the Steelers, they failed me as underdogs in Philadelphia, but I’m rolling with them again since they own Lamar Jackson.
Back to Sunday, I am becoming the Carolina whisperer as I smartly jumped off the bandwagon last week when Sir Purr and company became favorites against Dallas. However, now the Cats are back to being dogs and facing a floundering Cardinals team at home. Sign me back up!
Bad news for the haters: None of my fantasy teams made the playoffs, so I have more attention to devote to picks! We are running out of time to make a comeback, but at least I don’t have to worry about how much FAAB money to drop on the waiver wire every week. What I do need to worry about is whether or not the 49ers are back. They burned my strategy of continuing to fade them with their destruction of the Bears, but I think they come back to Earth in a tough divisional game. I am going to Ram It for the first time in a while.
In the next three games, I have big home dogs. The Chiefs never cover, so Cleveland is an easy pick. Cincinnati’s cover in the Simpsons game was a total fluke and Lisa Simpson won’t bail them out this time. Tennessee was terrible against Jacksonville, but I’m sure Will Levis will bounce back now that I’m not relying on him to save my fantasy team. New Orleans is getting way too many points against a Washington team that hasn’t impressed lately.
That brings us to the return of Tommy DeVito to MetLife Stadium. I am actually happy to see him again because Drew Lock was beyond miserable last week, but that doesn’t mean the Giants have a snowball’s chance to beat Baltimore. I think the Ravens win by at least 20 as Derrick Henry attempts a single game rushing record.
The Giants will not be fun to watch, but Dallas at Carolina should be a pretty interesting game considering how bad the record are. The Panthers have been money against the spread as a dog, but I’m not feeling them as a favorite. I think the Cowboys win outright. The Jets are another team I don’t feel great about as a favorite, but I feel better about them than the Jaguars. Plus, Aaron Rodgers is coming off one of his best games a Jet.
Dolphins vs. Texans is close to a toss-up, but I’ll take Houston because of how consistently it runs the ball with Joe Mixon. I feel a lot better about Denver as a home favorite because of how well it has played lately with three straight wins by more than a touchdown. The Lions are still an auto pick because they never lose, and the Steelers get the nod in the underdog spot as usual.
I have to fade the Cardinals, as they have hit the skids with three straight losses. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has won three straight, but the Chargers are a big step up in competition and should handle the Buccaneers at home. I am going to feel like a fool if I lose against the Seahawks again, but the Packers are playing too well, so we’ll try fading Seattle one more time.
Both home teams look good in the Monday night slate. Sam Darnold has played some of the best football of his career lately for Minnesota, and the Falcons have not played well enough lately for me to trust them against my plucky Raiders.
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Law Offices of Brandon S. Chabner
Brandon’s Posts
ChabDog’s Tenuous Attempt To Tackle the Week 10 Spreads:
Hold onto to that rope, or let go if you want, …. maybe the freedom from the shackles of common sense will set you free…
After Baltimore’s Thursday night betrayal I really don’t know what to think, other than sometimes my instincts on the marginal advantage one team has really doesn’t stink…. that being said, in the immortal words of Maggie from Caddyshack, “Tanks for nothin, ChabDog” —
— Going G-men over Carolina (giving four and half to the Panthers) — Yes, the Giants should win this game…. I don’t care where it is being played, and it’s time they started living large… at the expense of the Stink Panthers, as part of the NFL’s endless foreign exchange program.
— I like the Bears in this game…. but I don’t like them by 6.5… the Patriots should hang in there and make this interesting
— Here we go again,…. taking issue with the Dolts’ duller than dull offfense… who cares where they are playing, they still totally suck in terms of scoring aptitude… look for the Bills to regain their attitude iwth a big win
— Denver’s offense looks dead once again, and the Chiefs continue to swindle me whenver I think of them as their former high octane selves…..but c’mon KC is a simple 10 point victory at home too much to ask… like last week, I’m taking the bait for the Chiefs, because I can’t countenace drawing any kind of line with Diggs
— I’m feelin it for the Falcons, who have a good coach, a good QB (I can’t believe I’m saying that), some tasty Rijon at running back, some fairly good receivers, and a decent-to-better than avg defense… and that’s a lot more than the “Aints have going for them
— Kudos to the SF Niners, who may have found some of their lost swagger, and was last week’s loss by the Bucs a total dagger? Yes and no to those two question, but I think the defending NFC champs have too many weapons … give TB the 6.5 and take your chances.
— Steelers had two weeks to recharge those batteries, and the battery of Wison Pickets will be rocking and rolling at the 10 am pacific hour. The Commies will lose, and Vegas will rue the day they made them the favs.
— Yes, Minny covered last week, but their offense production has been nothing less than spotty. The Jags, meanwhile, continue to score in decent quantities, and at home, I think 4.5 is just a little too rich for my blood. Going Jags, even if it means I should have my head examined.
— Like Stella, the Chargers are really starting to find their grrove backM Though the Ti-tans showed me something last week, I think the bots can turn the screws on TN to the tune of at least an 8-point victory.
— , More home humliation for the Cowboys? Eagles should win but I’m going out on a bit of limb in saying that Micah Parson comes limping in and gives that beaten to hell defense a bit of a lift. Boys to beat that insulting Philly spread of +6.5.
— I’m officially on the AZ bandwagon, and personally buying the car seat for fun-sized Kyler, who no kidding, is filling some pretty big shoes these days.It should be a pretty entertaining game with the Jets, but the Cards should slip by in the late Arizona afternoon … by at least 2.
— Don’t care who is coming back for the Texans…. they’ll feel beseiged and bereft of alternatives or viable options when the Lions come to down. Detroit giving only 3.5…. are you kidding?
— Rams slam the door shut on the Dolphins, who came to Sofi looking for a break, and get swallowed up in an eqrthquake of a statement game for Stafford.
Thursday Night Featuring the Bangles Rears Its Frightful Head… just to spite me
3 yards too far for Ja’Marr, Joe and the snake-bitten Bangles…. who were angling for a huge upset victory in Ballmer but end up just another team that stepped in No. 2 when it took the greedy option and went for 2.
Give the Ravens credit for coming out of that extended coma just in time for another ridiculous run-up of instant gratification TDs, and thank you very little for playing with the notion of covering that 6.5, only to give nearly all of it away in a final 90 seconds or so that played like “Here to Eternity”….heaven help me for changing my pick in favor of the Purple Rush ruffians covering that plush spread.
Well Read’s Posts
Abe’s Posts
Week 4: Abe’s Scrumdidilyumptious NFL Picks (ATS)
NO NEED TO FEAR…WEEK 4 IS HERE, and boy have we seen an ass ton of upsets and injuries already go down in just 3 short weeks ! Like me, I assume everyone elses fantasy team is in a world of shit right now. Especially since I have Puka Nacua (WR-Rams) and Isiah Pacheco (RB – KC Chiefs) on the fucking IR. As always, here are my scrumdidilyumptious NFL picks based on very flawed science, numbies based solely on Taylor Swift’s game attendance, and a spidey sense that may or may not be functioning well based on the amount and quality of tacos I ate today. As for week 3, I got 50% (8/16) of my picks right and still questioning why the hell I picked the Bengals -7.5 knowing how unreliable they’ve been so far….I’m ashamed….bad Abe…bad (why I’m picking the Panthers +5.5)! With that being said, you still have a better shot with my picks below than literally flipping a quarter. So if you’re stuck on a particular game to pick, just know you got better odds right fucking here!!! So let’s get smashed and have ourselves a weekend
WEEK 1: 10/16 (62.5%) WEEK 2: 8/15 + 1 Push (53.3%) WEEK 3: 8/16 (50%) SEASON RECORD (ATS): 26/47 + 1 Push (55%)
| | @gawdbrudder
Week 3: Abe’s Scrumdidilyumptious NFL Picks (ATS)
Hey everyone, it’s week 3 and off to the NFL races we go with the Patriots vs the Jets tonight (ATS: Patriots ML: Jets )! As always, here are my scrumdidilyumptious NFL picks based on very flawed science, numbies based solely on Taylor Swift’s game attendance, and a spidey sense that may or may not be functioning well based on the amount and quality of tacos I ate today. As for week 2, I got 53% (8/15) of my picks right with my 16th pick being a “push” (8 – 7 – 1). Overall, you still have a better shot with my picks below than literally flipping a quarter. So if you’re stuck on a particular game to pick, just know you got better odds right fucking here!!! LFGoooooo!
WEEK 1: 10/16 (62.5%) WEEK 2: 8/15 + 1 Push (53.3%) SEASON RECORD (ATS): 18/31 + 1 Push (58%)
| | @gawdbrudder
Dorothy’s Posts
Aaron’s Posts
Michigan State gets a big win and Bruce Thornton rescues Ohio State in double overtime
I thought Michigan State had a chance to be a home underdog against Illinois on Saturday afternoon. The Illini might be ranked 10th in the AP Poll, but Michigan State is not far behind in terms of talent and it was playing at home. I was ready to jump all over the Spartans if the line was close to zero. It’s hard to fool the books, though. Michigan State was favored by three and a half when I checked in on Saturday morning. I said “screw it” and took Sparty anyway. Tom Izzo’s team was rounding into form and needed this win for its NCAA Tournament resume.
Laying the points didn’t look like a great decision for much of the afternoon, especially when Marcus Domask knocked down a three-point shot to put Illinois ahead 72-64 with less than eight minutes to play. The Spartans owned the rest of the game, though. A.J. Hoggard stepped up with a three of his own in transition and then scored three the old fashioned way with a great head fake on Coleman Hawkins in the paint. The “and one” free throw tied the score at 72-72, but Michigan State wasn’t done. Malik Hall hit a big driving layup plus the foul to put Sparty ahead, and Tyson Walker stole the ball and put in a breakaway layup to help his team pull away and win 88-80. Great teams cover.
A.J. HOGGARD TIES IT UP AT 72 😤 pic.twitter.com/T1HYktWnb9
— CBS Sports College Basketball 🏀 (@CBSSportsCBB) February 10, 2024
It was a rare performance by Michigan State that saw the Big Three of Walker, Hoggard, and Hall all play like a Big Three at the same time. Hoggard and Hall combined for 45 points with Hall going 7-for-9 from the field and Hoggard adding five assists. That meant that Walker didn’t have to break his back carrying the offense. The effort by Sparty was enough to overcome a 28-point, 7-rebound effort from Terrence Shannon Jr. Illinois might have been a little too perimeter-oriented in this one with half of its field goal attempts coming from three-point range. While the Illini shot 11-for-30 from beyond the arc, Michigan State got work done in the paint while going 5-for-8 from downtown. Efficiency!
The only other exciting game on Saturday came from a surprising place: Columbus, Ohio! Maryland had a chance to pick up an impressive road win against an Ohio State squad that is every bubble team’s dream. That’s because the Buckeyes are a lousy team that for some reason has a strong NET rating. Beating them will look good to the nerds on the NCAA Tournament selection committee even though it’s not that hard to do so. Even my Nittany Lions beat Ohio State (although we also lost to them on the road). Sounds like a great opportunity for the Terps, right! That is correct, but Maryland blew it anyway even though Ohio State only led for five minutes during the game that ended up going into double overtime.
Penn State might be a wagon and Wisconsin stumbles at Michigan
I’m still not entertaining any NCAA Tournament talk with regards to my Penn State Nittany Lions. Too much damage has been done to the resume from inexplicably losing a buy game to Bucknell to going winless in Disney World to dropping overtime games against Maryland and Georgia Tech. It’s going to take way more than a Big Ten record that is one or two games above .500, even though that would be an impressive accomplishment for Mike Rhoades in his first season as head coach.
That said, the three-game winning streak that Penn State is on has been an awesome ride, and it was a lot of fun to watch it continue as the Lions pulled away from Iowa during the final four minutes on Thursday night. Ace Baldwin Jr. took over the game with 13 points and a pair of huge steals during the stretch and Penn State outscored Iowa 18-8 to finish with an 89-79 victory. I don’t expect seniors like Baldwin to take massive leaps with their game, but Baldwin looks like a different player than he was at the start of the season. He’s in control of the offense and red hot from three-point range. What’s crazy is that Baldwin was 0-for-13 from beyond the arc from the win against Rider on December 29 to the blowout loss at Purdue on January 13. Since then, he’s gone 16-for-26 in six games. It makes a big difference when opponents have to respect a point guard’s three-point shot. Opportunities for other players have opened up, and Baldwin has no problem sharing the rock when he needs to.
Ace Baldwin dishing dimes out like he’s a bank teller pic.twitter.com/uoVEWV4dw2
— Barstool Penn State (@PSUBarstool) February 9, 2024
One of those players with more opportunities has been Qudus Wahab. He’s averaging 13 points per game over his last four games after a three-game stretch in which he scored exactly four points in each one. With Zach Hicks living on the perimeter and Nick Kern operating with the dribble drive, Wahab is the only Penn State big man who is a post threat, but he’s been an excellent one lately with 13 of his 16 field goals going in. Thanks to Baldwin finding some range and Wahab executing down low, the Lions have a pretty deep and versatile offense that will hopefully continue giving opponents problems down the stretch.
The defense is a different story, though. I was pleasantly surprised by Penn State’s rebounding against Iowa, but the Hawkeyes still shot 56 percent from the field with Ben Krikke going 10-for-18 on his way to 22 points. Iowa might have won if not for Payton Sandfort getting banged up and going 2-for-7 from deep. Iowa as a team only shot 27 percent from three-point range compared to 52 percent for Penn State, and it’s safe to say that was a difference maker. We saw from the Indiana game that defending big centers is an issue for Penn State that probably won’t be going away, but the Lions have shot the three so well lately that it hasn’t mattered. It also helps when you win the turnover battle as often as Penn State has this season.
Purdue asserts Big Ten dominance and Nebraska teases road competence
How is Purdue going to blow it this year? That question is getting tougher and tougher to figure out as the Boilermakers keep winning big games in the Big Ten. Their latest triumph came on Sunday with a 75-69 victory over second-place Wisconsin in Madison. Turns out it is really dumb to bet against the projected number one overall NCAA Tournament seed when it is getting points, even in a tough road environment. Purdue had its chances to wilt in this one, but Lance Jones came up big whenever the Badgers got close, and the Boilers were able to hold onto the lead for the entire second half. If Purdue makes the Final Four like it should, we’ll point to Jones as the key difference between this year’s team and last year’s team that flopped in the first round. Jones hit a huge three-point shot to double Purdue’s lead when Wisconsin got within 52-49 with 9:20 to play.
The Badgers got within two at the 4:50 mark when Tyler Wahl grabbed his own rebound and turned it into a layup. It looked like Wisconsin might stage a late rally when Zach Edey missed a free throw, but Mason Gillis picked up the rebound and kicked the ball out to Jones, who drove to the bucket for a layup that put Purdue up by multiple scores for the rest of the game. Wahl almost turned it into a one-score game with a minute to play, but after grabbing yet another offensive rebound (he had six in the game), he got trapped under the basket and his pass was intercepted by Jones, who put the game away with a breakaway layup.
Lance Jones is strong. 😤@LanceBUckets x @BoilerBall
📺: CBS pic.twitter.com/YXrH5RbjEK
— Big Ten Men's Basketball (@B1GMBBall) February 4, 2024
Not only did Jones lead the Boilers with 20 points, but his defense was important to locking down the Wisconsin backcourt. AJ Storr shot just 4-for-15 from the field and Chucky Hepburn was 1-for-6. Wahl might have been more impressive than Jones with all those offensive rebounds to go with 20 points, five assists, three steals, and two blocks. This guy went straight at Edey for much of the afternoon and still shot 10-for-16 from the field. It’s too bad for the Badgers that none of their other players stepped up in a big way, while Jones had plenty of help from Edey (18 points, 13 rebounds, 3 blocks) and Braden Smith (19 points, six rebounds, three assists, two steals).
The win moves Purdue to one game above Wisconsin and Illinois in the loss column with eight games left on the Boilers’ Big Ten slate. They’re in great position to win a second straight regular season title, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them end February at 15-2 with a relatively light schedule ahead.
Nebraska comes oh so close to a big road win
Nebraska would already be a lock for the NCAA Tournament if only it could pull out one of these road games. Alas, the Huskers stand at 6-6 in the conference with six wins at home and six losses on the road. Champaign usually isn’t a great place to go for road wins, but Nebraska stormed back from a 10-point deficit in the final three and a half minutes to take the lead on a Rienk Mast hook shot with nine seconds left. Marcus Domask drew a foul on the other end for Illinois, and he split the foul shots to send the game to overtime.
This is a Ty Rodgers appreciation post. 🙌@Ty_rodgers20 x @IlliniMBB pic.twitter.com/6WBMjQcfIE
— Illinois on BTN (@IllinoisOnBTN) February 5, 2024
The extra period got off to a good start for the Illini, as Coleman Hawkins found Quincy Guerrier on the wing for a three-point shot that put them up 79-75 with 3:40 on the clock. Keisei Tominaga struck back with perhaps his most beautiful three-point jumper of the night, and there were a lot of them. The Japanese sharpshooter has been dormant lately with just 14 combined points in his last three games, but against Illinois he erupted for 31 points on 5-for-7 shooting from deep. Tominaga’s heroics led the Huskers having a 43 percent to 27 percent advantage in three-point shooting, but Illinois made up for it by winning the offensive rebounding battle 17-5. The biggest factor in that category was Ty Rodgers, who grabbed five offensive rebounds and 14 overall to go with eight points, three assists, and three steals. Rodgers is a weird guard-forward hybrid who is the only member of Illinois’ starting five who can’t shoot the three, but he’s also a great defensive player and classic glue guy who does what his team needs to achieve victory.
Purdue and Nebraska pull off dramatic wins at home and Penn State wins ugly
It does not get any more exciting than this in the Big Ten! On Wednesday night and again on Thursday night, we watched epic overtime battles play out between teams at the top of the conference and teams that are battling to earn NCAA Tournament bids. On Wednesday, Purdue narrowly avoided being swept by Northwestern thanks to some overtime heroics by the unstoppable Zach Edey. On Thursday, Nebraska engineered a massive comeback to defeat Wisconsin in overtime for the second season in a row. Winning in Lincoln these days is a seemingly impossible task for road teams.
Let’s start with the game in West Lafayette, though. Boo Buie was on a massive heater and it did not look like he was going to let Northwestern leave Mackey Arena without a win. He went 7-for-11 from beyond the arc and is playing like one of the top guards in the country. Buie also handed out eight assists to go with his 25 points and five rebounds. However, Buie was not the only one scorching the nets, as Lance Jones went 5-for-7 from distance and was responsible for answering Buie’s bombs with three huge triples in the final seven minutes. As well as Buie played, he fell one shot short of winning the game for Northwestern, as his buzzer-beating runner fell short, resulting in overtime.
And overtime is where Edey took over. College basketball’s top player scored the first 10 Purdue points of the extra period with Matthew Nicholson and Luke Hunger having already fouled out for Northwestern. The seldomly used forward Blake Preston did not have much of a chance on defense. With 30 or more points in four of his last six games, Edey is overwhelming for most opponents. Between his post game, the pick-and-roll with Braden Smith, and his ridiculous offensive rebound ability, there is just too much of Edey to deal with.
Braden Smith is really good. Broke down the whole defense to set up wide open Loyer. 16 assists for Smith in this game. pic.twitter.com/SRYebTDugv
— Aaron Yorke (@AaronPYorke) February 1, 2024
Speaking of Smith, he made a couple of huge plays down the stretch of overtime to keep the Wildcats at bay. First, Smith made a driving layup when Edey got tired of dominating. Then, with Purdue clinging to a three-point lead in the final minute, Smith drove under the basket and drew the entire Northwestern defense to him before kicking the ball out to Fletcher Loyer, who crushed a wide-open three and put the Boilers up 96-90. They hung on to win 105-96 and added to their number one overall resume. Northwestern is still looking like a solid bet for the NCAA Tournament, but a second victory over Purdue could have made the Wildcats close to a lock.
Indiana gets its act together and Illinois’ offense goes nuclear
Congrats, Indiana! You finally did it. The Hoosiers finally won a home game that they were favored in after dropping their last three Assembly Hall games to Penn State, Northwestern, and Nebraska. If Indiana had just taken care of business, we’d be talking about its status on the NCAA Tournament bubble right now, but instead all we can say is that the 74-70 win over Wisconsin is too little and too late for Mike Woodson’s team. After the Hoosiers led for almost 30 minutes, it looked like they were going to blow the game when John Blackwell hit a driving layup for Wisconsin to tie the score at 54-54 midway through the second half, but someone or something (or perhaps divine intervention) pull a fire alarm at Assembly Hall, causing the action to halt for 25 minutes.
When play finally resumed, Tyler Wahl posted up and scored on a reverse layup to give Wisconsin its first lead, but Indiana punched back with Malik Reneau hitting a putback layup. The two red teams battled back and forth with neither leading for more than three points until the Hoosiers finally took control in the final minute. Reneau powered through Wahl for a layup and made the score 72-70 Indiana with 55 seconds left, and then the Hoosiers got a key stop when AJ Storr missed a three-point shot. Mackenzie Mgbako drew a foul and knocked down both free throws to finally put the home squad ahead by two possessions and end a four-game losing streak.
Kel'el Ware is on fire. 🔥@KelelWare x @IndianaMBB
💻: Peacock pic.twitter.com/zC8c7Jsc5h
— Big Ten Men's Basketball (@B1GMBBall) February 28, 2024
As usual, Indiana didn’t get much scoring from its backcourt, but Trey Galloway handed out 12 assists to help feed Kel’el Ware, who is turning into the Hoosiers’ own version of Zach Edey. Ware scored 27 points and went 11-for-12 from the field with 11 rebounds, five blocks, and just one turnover. That is unstoppable as it gets against a Wisconsin team that has plenty of big men to throw his way on defense. We’ve talked plenty about how disappointing this season has been for Indiana, but there is major bounce-back potential this fall if Ware decides to stick around alongside Reneau and the quickly improving Mgbako.