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Hey everyone and welcome to NFL Week 16 where I try to beat the spread every week, make a little money, or brag to our work besties that we simply pick winners cause our state doesn’t allow sports betting yet (fuck you California). So take a look below…let me know in the comments section if I fucked this up or on any of my social media handles (note my Week 15 picks were 87.5% on the money). Let’s fucking gooooooooo.
| | @gawdbrudder
I went 9-7 last week and clawed to within 15 games of .500 at 104-119-1 with three weeks to play. That ground is not impossible to make up, but it is going to take foresight, discipline, and some hefty road favorites covering this week. Just look at that Detroit line at Chicago. It’s over a touchdown even though the Lions were shredded on defense last week and nearly allowed a miracle comeback by Caleb Williams on Thanksgiving. So why are we backing Detroit? Because this season, laying the big number with Detroit has paid off. The Lions are 3-1 against the spread when being favored by seven or more, and I expect them to pound the struggling Bears.
I am also taking the Rams, Eagles, Vikings, and Buccaneers as road favorites. They probably won’t all work out, but maybe they will go 3-1 since all four are surging right now while playing inferior competition. I actually like the Giants pick this week since they were able to move the ball a little against Baltimore and Michael Penix Jr. is making his first start for Atlanta. Maybe a rookie mistake or two will help the Giants intercept the ball for the third time this season.
I might not even watch the NFL on Saturday because of the College Football Playoff and a decent college hoops slate, but I expect Kansas City and Pittsburgh to come through for me. The Chiefs have transformed into favorites with the news that Patrick Mahomes is practicing fully this week, so getting two and a half points makes this one the easiest pick on the board. For the Steelers, they failed me as underdogs in Philadelphia, but I’m rolling with them again since they own Lamar Jackson.
Back to Sunday, I am becoming the Carolina whisperer as I smartly jumped off the bandwagon last week when Sir Purr and company became favorites against Dallas. However, now the Cats are back to being dogs and facing a floundering Cardinals team at home. Sign me back up!
Bad news for the haters: None of my fantasy teams made the playoffs, so I have more attention to devote to picks! We are running out of time to make a comeback, but at least I don’t have to worry about how much FAAB money to drop on the waiver wire every week. What I do need to worry about is whether or not the 49ers are back. They burned my strategy of continuing to fade them with their destruction of the Bears, but I think they come back to Earth in a tough divisional game. I am going to Ram It for the first time in a while.
In the next three games, I have big home dogs. The Chiefs never cover, so Cleveland is an easy pick. Cincinnati’s cover in the Simpsons game was a total fluke and Lisa Simpson won’t bail them out this time. Tennessee was terrible against Jacksonville, but I’m sure Will Levis will bounce back now that I’m not relying on him to save my fantasy team. New Orleans is getting way too many points against a Washington team that hasn’t impressed lately.
That brings us to the return of Tommy DeVito to MetLife Stadium. I am actually happy to see him again because Drew Lock was beyond miserable last week, but that doesn’t mean the Giants have a snowball’s chance to beat Baltimore. I think the Ravens win by at least 20 as Derrick Henry attempts a single game rushing record.
The Giants will not be fun to watch, but Dallas at Carolina should be a pretty interesting game considering how bad the record are. The Panthers have been money against the spread as a dog, but I’m not feeling them as a favorite. I think the Cowboys win outright. The Jets are another team I don’t feel great about as a favorite, but I feel better about them than the Jaguars. Plus, Aaron Rodgers is coming off one of his best games a Jet.
Dolphins vs. Texans is close to a toss-up, but I’ll take Houston because of how consistently it runs the ball with Joe Mixon. I feel a lot better about Denver as a home favorite because of how well it has played lately with three straight wins by more than a touchdown. The Lions are still an auto pick because they never lose, and the Steelers get the nod in the underdog spot as usual.
I have to fade the Cardinals, as they have hit the skids with three straight losses. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has won three straight, but the Chargers are a big step up in competition and should handle the Buccaneers at home. I am going to feel like a fool if I lose against the Seahawks again, but the Packers are playing too well, so we’ll try fading Seattle one more time.
Both home teams look good in the Monday night slate. Sam Darnold has played some of the best football of his career lately for Minnesota, and the Falcons have not played well enough lately for me to trust them against my plucky Raiders.
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Turbulent times require desperate measures, so better pull out all the stops en route to CDST’s “Garbage out, garbage back in” Weak 9 NFL Prediction Show.
We’re throwing everything we got up on the walls of our Hermosa Beach studio, just to see what’ll stick. But unlike for your friendly local compactor, once it’s out there, there’s a no return policy, so sbsorb it at your own risk. Lots to talk about, including Dallas trying to burn its way out of the GA dome, the Aints painted into a corner as prohibitve favorite in Scarolina, the Packers now pressured to pick up their lethargic offense against Detroi at Lambeau, and the Bangles trying to make hay against the Raiders. Plus, Dodger rooters are replaced by Dodger looters as the World Series celebration pre-party runs amok, turning an LA Metrobus into a sizzling pile of floating Kingford. Commentary on the Ravens’ plush, purple rush helmets from hell, what the hell they were they thinking when they flubbed up the mascot for the “Utah Hockey Club”, clips galore, and so much more.
Chabdog Chooses Against the Chalk on TNF (Week 9):
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Week 2: Abe’s Scrumdidilyumptious NFL Picks (ATS)
Hey everyone, it’s week 2 and so happy to hauk tuah all over this NFL thang once again!!!!! As always, here are my scrumdidilyumptious NFL picks based on very flawed science, numbies based solely on Taylor Swift’s game attendance, and a spidey sense that may or may not be functioning well based on the amount and quality of tacos I ate today. As for week 1, I got 62.5% (10/16) of my picks right which means you have a better shot with my picks below than literally flipping a quarter. So if you’re stuck on a particular game to pick, just know you got better odds right fucking here!!! LFGoooooo!
WEEK 1: 10/16 (62.5%)
| | @gawdbrudder
Week 1: Abe’s Scrumdidilyumptious NFL Picks (ATS)
THANK FUCKING GAWD FOOTBALL IS BACK! And with that, I will continue my annual 18-week tradition of giving you all my scrumdidilyumptious NFL picks based on very flawed science, numbies based solely on Taylor Swift’s game attendance, and a spidey sense that may or may not be functioning well based on the amount and quality of tacos I ate today. Fortunately for me, this is Week 1 and I’m already starting the season at 100%…so I can only go down from here! However, TO BE FAIR, I did get 50% of my Against-The-Spread picks right last season (see below) which isn’t too bad considering our highest Chabdog Sports expert got 54.51%. Lastly, regardless of who you cheer for, I hope you have a great season & are just as excited as I am to have football back! LETS FUCKING GO….
| | @gawdbrudder
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Purdue finally wins at Rutgers and Michigan enters the abyss
Purdue vs. Rutgers was a great game to put on television before the football on Sunday. I figured it would be physical, intense, and have a final score that reminded me of a football score. That is just how Rutgers games at the arena formerly known as the RAC have been this season. The Scarlet Knights have one of the worst offenses and best defenses in Division I, and when they play at home, they tend to drag opponents down to their level. I knew that Rutgers +10.5 was a lock, but I couldn’t make money off of it because New Jersey is a fascist state that doesn’t allow citizens to bet on colleges within the state.
This law needs to be changed immediately @NJGov https://t.co/Zvu60AguhD
— Aaron Yorke (@AaronPYorke) January 28, 2024
It also didn’t hurt that Purdue had lost three in a row at Rutgers and that Jersey Mike’s Arena was the only Big Ten venue in which Zach Edey had never won a game. Sure enough, even though Rutgers fell behind by 13 points at halftime, it clawed back to within two points thanks to some key buckets by freshmen Gavin Griffiths and Jamichael Davis. The Boilers had the answer each time and never surrendered the lead with Braden Smith scoring 19 points on 7-for-10 shooting to support Zach Edey’s 26 points and 12 rebounds. The Knights as usual did not shoot the ball very well, but they grabbed 15 offensive rebounds (Purdue only had six even though Edey had five himself) and might have pulled off the upset if not for a terrific defensive effort from Lance Jones. He only scored four points on 1-for-10 shooting, but he gave Rutgers’ guards fits and his five steals accounted for half of Rutgers’ 10 turnovers.
Purdue held on to win 68-60 with Rutgers covering the spread just like I foresaw. Please change the law, New Jersey.
Michigan keeps sinking
Now let’s talk about all the things I was wrong about this weekend. I really thought the Wolverines would get a home win over Iowa since they already won in Iowa City this season. Well, the game was close throughout, but Payton Sandfort picked a great time to pull out of his scoring slump and he helped the Hawkeyes pull away in the final 10 minutes. Sandfort was red hot from beyond the arc, and he finished with 26 points on 10-for-14 shooting. Iowa needs more games like that from him if it is going to make an NCAA Tournament push. Tony Perkins is upholding his end of the bargain with a third straight 20-point game. Michigan got balanced scoring with four starters in double figures, but its suspect defense let it down again. This is a nightmare season for Michigan and the schedule is not getting any easier up ahead.
Iowa, on the other hand, has a great chance to make a run with its next four games against Indiana, Ohio State, Penn State, and Minnesota. Those might be the four worst teams in the league besides Michigan right now. If Iowa can get Sandfort and Ben Krikke going on offense alongside Perkins, Fran McCaffery’s team has a big chance to rack up some dubs.
Northwestern has the best home court advantage in the Big Ten
Purdue, Michigan State, and now Illinois have all lost to Northwestern inside of Welsh-Ryan Arena. The home of the Wildcats is looking like the top home court advantage in the Big Ten. It might even be considered among the best in the country if not for Northwestern’s loss to Chicago State in December. That inexplicable defeat is a serious stain on Northwestern’s NCAA Tournament resume, but the good news is that the Wildcats are safely in the field thanks to their most recent triumph over the rival Illini.
A week ago, Northwestern failed to secure a road win at Nebraska because Boo Buie turned into Mr. Clank, but that wasn’t an issue at home against Illinois. The superstar point guard was in his bag as the kids say. He led everyone with 29 points and seven assists while leading Northwestern to the 96-91 overtime victory. The game might not have made it to overtime, but Buie answered Justin Harmon’s go-ahead runner with a drive past Terrence Shannon Jr. and a layup off a shot fake to tie the score at 76-76.
Who else but Boo Buie to tie it up. 👀 @NUMensBball pic.twitter.com/PDvBlLy5pB
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) January 25, 2024
Illinois had a chance to win in regulation, and Marcus Domask had a good look at being the hero, but his 15-foot jumper banged off the back of the rim. That turned out to be the Illini’s best shot at victory because Northwestern scored the first nine points of overtime thanks to a three by Buie and another one by Brooks Barnhizer that turned into a four-point play with Quincy Guerrier fouling on the shot.
Before taking that big lead in overtime, Northwestern’s largest lead in the entire game was just four points. Even though the Cats shot 55 percent from the field and 11-for-18 from beyond the arc, Illinois kept pace with 21 offensive rebounds on 45 missed shots. The biggest second chance provider was Coleman Hawkins, who continued his streak of great play with 22 points and 13 rebounds with seven coming on offense. The effort by Illinois will be enough to win most games, and the team can be even better once Shannon Jr. rounds into form. Northwestern’s hot shooting was just too much to overcome on Wednesday night.
Terrence Shannon Jr. is back and so is Michigan State
Illinois fans got surprisingly good news last week when Terrence Shannon Jr. had his suspension overturned by U.S. District Court Judge Colleen Lawless. It turns out that Illinois suspending Shannon Jr. based on the rape and sexual battery charges against him violates his civil rights.
“Plaintiff’s participation in sports is vital to the development of his career as well as his current and future economic opportunities considering plaintiff’s intention to declare for the 2024 NBA Draft,” Lawless wrote in the order issued Friday. “Prior to his suspension, plaintiff was projected to be a lottery pick in the NBA. His participation in future games impact his prospects in the draft and his earning potential.”
Usually “innocent until proven guilty” only applies to the justice system and not to sports leagues (or in this case, schools) who suspend players in order to protect their precious family-friendly images. It was a pleasant surprise to see Shannon Jr. reinstated when we don’t know if he’s guilty of anything. The accusations against him are bad and disturbing, but there’s also very little evidence. I’m glad he gets to continue his final season of college basketball with the hope of impressing NBA scouts.
Terrence Shannon Jr. gets the steal and the big jam.@Sn1per_T x @IlliniMBB
📺: @BigTenNetwork pic.twitter.com/vNTUjvl2sL
— Big Ten Men's Basketball (@B1GMBBall) January 21, 2024
Illinois probably didn’t need Shannon Jr. to defeat Rutgers on Sunday, but he still scored 16 points with four assists in 28 minutes off the bench in his first game back. Rutgers got a great effort from Cliff Omoruyi, and he helped the Scarlet Knights claw to within four points at 55-51 with 10 minutes left, but the Illini pulled away and won 86-63. Guys like Marcus Domask and Quincy Guerrier were able to spread their wings a little with Shannon Jr. out of action, so you can make the argument that Illinois is better off now than they were before the suspension. Many people won’t be happy that a player allegedly sexually assaulting a woman resulted in increased team chemistry, but it is going to be tough to pick against Illinois going forward.
Another team with high preseason expectations that is round into form is Michigan State. The Spartans are on a three-game winning streak with the most recent victory coming on Sunday at Maryland. The Terps erased a 12-point halftime deficit with a 21-6 run that led to them taking a 53-50 lead on Jahmir Young’s three-point shot with 13 minutes to play. However, Sparty bounced back and escaped with the 61-59 win thanks to three big field goals by A.J. Hoggard in the final eight minutes as well as a clutch step-back three from Tyson Walker to put Michigan State up 61-57 in the final minute. Young appeared to answer with a step-back three of his own seconds later, but his foot was on the line. Maryland got one more chance to tie or win following a defensive stop, but Tre Holloman stripped Young of the ball to keep the Spartans in the win column.
Penn State might be that team you don’t want to play in the Big Ten
I try to stay a little optimistic about this Penn State basketball team. Even after they killed their chances of sniffing the NCAA Tournament, they still pulled out comeback wins over Ohio State and Michigan. Chances of meaningful postseason basketball are zero, but chances of ruining someone else’s season have been pretty good. Still, I did not think that Penn State had a chance to upset Wisconsin on Tuesday night. Even after Penn State jumped out to a 12-2 lead and used pressure on defense to throw off the usually patient Badgers, I was waiting for the other shoe to drop. It looked like it did drop when Wisconsin chipped away and chipped away and finally took the lead on a Max Klesmit three-point shot with five minutes to play. However, my Lions kept attacking the basket for layups and free throws while Qudus Wahab had a couple of huge blocks that led to a pair of rare stops.
Alma Mater hits different after a court storm. pic.twitter.com/aPauqclAbR
— Aaron Yorke (@AaronPYorke) January 17, 2024
When Penn State held on for the 87-83 win, it was time for the students to rush the court. And we got a surprisingly good court storming for a game that started at 9:00 p.m. on a weeknight after a snowstorm. This was a win that Mike Rhoades can build on, and when Kanye Clary and Ace Baldwin Jr. are both scoring as efficiently as they did against Wisconsin, Penn State is going to be tough to beat.
Purdue established dominance over Indiana
I thought that Indiana had a great chance to cover the 9.5 points because Purdue had been shaky outside of West Lafayette. Wrong, wrong, wrong. The Boilermakers absolutely crushed their rivals 87-66 to ensure that they would not be swept by Indiana for the second straight season. Zach Edey really wanted to win in Bloomington before his ridiculous college career is over, and he showed it with 33 points and 14 rebounds while making more free throws than Indiana attempted as a team.
You don't see 7-4 dudes doing this very often. 😲@zach_edey x @BoilerBall
💻: Peacock pic.twitter.com/1smPMIScyH
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) January 17, 2024
Purdue held Kel’el Ware and Malik Reneau to 13 points combined, but they weren’t nearly as bad as Xavier Johnson. He has been a walking nightmare since coming back from a foot injury apart from a great game against Ohio State in which he scored 18 points to lead the Hoosiers to a much-needed win. In his other four games of 2024, Johnson has a total of four points and two flagrant fouls. Not a great ratio. In this one, Johnson went 0-for-5 from the field while scoring no points. May G-d have mercy on his soul.
Iowa and Maryland make pushes to get on the NCAA Tournament bubble
The Big Ten never rests. Just when you think you can write a team like Maryland off because it can’t put the ball in the hoop, the Terps go on the road and beat Illinois for their first quality win of the season. That might be the best road win that any Big Ten team gets this season based on how Purdue and Wisconsin are playing at home. Maryland has had to rely on its defense because of how putrid its offense has been, but on Sunday in Champaign, Jahmir Young and Julian Reese played in tandem and looked like a dynamic duo as they set up each other for good looks at the hoop. Young missed all four of his three-point shots, but he finished 11-for-24 with 28 points and eight assists because of how great he was a driving to the bucket and using his teammates as screens. When the game came down to the wire, Reese bullied the Illini in the paint and picked up enough points to hold off Marcus Domask and company while forcing Coleman Hawkins to foul out. Maryland has a long way to go because of how bare its resume is, but now Kevin Willard’s team has a signature win and a formula to build around. Young and Reese scoring in the paint plus hounding defense that leads to transition points.
Geronimo!! Seals the win for the Terps!! 🙌 @TerrapinHoops pic.twitter.com/iyiuuDOFYg
— FOX College Hoops (@CBBonFOX) January 14, 2024
By the way, Domask was a dawg in this one with some tough shots down the stretch to keep Illinois in the game while the rest of his team was shooting 12-for-45 (26 percent). Justin Harmon has been a key player for Illinois with Terrence Shannon Jr. suspended, but he was a big let down in this one, going 0-for-7 from the field. It will be interesting to see if the Terps can keep the good times rolling at Northwestern on Wednesday while Illinois looks to rebound on Thursday at Michigan, where the Wolverines finally broke their losing streak.