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BRANDON S. CHABNER
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Hey everyone and welcome to NFL Week 16 where I try to beat the spread every week, make a little money, or brag to our work besties that we simply pick winners cause our state doesn’t allow sports betting yet (fuck you California). So take a look below…let me know in the comments section if I fucked this up or on any of my social media handles (note my Week 15 picks were 87.5% on the money). Let’s fucking gooooooooo.
| | @gawdbrudder
I went 9-7 last week and clawed to within 15 games of .500 at 104-119-1 with three weeks to play. That ground is not impossible to make up, but it is going to take foresight, discipline, and some hefty road favorites covering this week. Just look at that Detroit line at Chicago. It’s over a touchdown even though the Lions were shredded on defense last week and nearly allowed a miracle comeback by Caleb Williams on Thanksgiving. So why are we backing Detroit? Because this season, laying the big number with Detroit has paid off. The Lions are 3-1 against the spread when being favored by seven or more, and I expect them to pound the struggling Bears.
I am also taking the Rams, Eagles, Vikings, and Buccaneers as road favorites. They probably won’t all work out, but maybe they will go 3-1 since all four are surging right now while playing inferior competition. I actually like the Giants pick this week since they were able to move the ball a little against Baltimore and Michael Penix Jr. is making his first start for Atlanta. Maybe a rookie mistake or two will help the Giants intercept the ball for the third time this season.
I might not even watch the NFL on Saturday because of the College Football Playoff and a decent college hoops slate, but I expect Kansas City and Pittsburgh to come through for me. The Chiefs have transformed into favorites with the news that Patrick Mahomes is practicing fully this week, so getting two and a half points makes this one the easiest pick on the board. For the Steelers, they failed me as underdogs in Philadelphia, but I’m rolling with them again since they own Lamar Jackson.
Back to Sunday, I am becoming the Carolina whisperer as I smartly jumped off the bandwagon last week when Sir Purr and company became favorites against Dallas. However, now the Cats are back to being dogs and facing a floundering Cardinals team at home. Sign me back up!
Bad news for the haters: None of my fantasy teams made the playoffs, so I have more attention to devote to picks! We are running out of time to make a comeback, but at least I don’t have to worry about how much FAAB money to drop on the waiver wire every week. What I do need to worry about is whether or not the 49ers are back. They burned my strategy of continuing to fade them with their destruction of the Bears, but I think they come back to Earth in a tough divisional game. I am going to Ram It for the first time in a while.
In the next three games, I have big home dogs. The Chiefs never cover, so Cleveland is an easy pick. Cincinnati’s cover in the Simpsons game was a total fluke and Lisa Simpson won’t bail them out this time. Tennessee was terrible against Jacksonville, but I’m sure Will Levis will bounce back now that I’m not relying on him to save my fantasy team. New Orleans is getting way too many points against a Washington team that hasn’t impressed lately.
That brings us to the return of Tommy DeVito to MetLife Stadium. I am actually happy to see him again because Drew Lock was beyond miserable last week, but that doesn’t mean the Giants have a snowball’s chance to beat Baltimore. I think the Ravens win by at least 20 as Derrick Henry attempts a single game rushing record.
The Giants will not be fun to watch, but Dallas at Carolina should be a pretty interesting game considering how bad the record are. The Panthers have been money against the spread as a dog, but I’m not feeling them as a favorite. I think the Cowboys win outright. The Jets are another team I don’t feel great about as a favorite, but I feel better about them than the Jaguars. Plus, Aaron Rodgers is coming off one of his best games a Jet.
Dolphins vs. Texans is close to a toss-up, but I’ll take Houston because of how consistently it runs the ball with Joe Mixon. I feel a lot better about Denver as a home favorite because of how well it has played lately with three straight wins by more than a touchdown. The Lions are still an auto pick because they never lose, and the Steelers get the nod in the underdog spot as usual.
I have to fade the Cardinals, as they have hit the skids with three straight losses. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has won three straight, but the Chargers are a big step up in competition and should handle the Buccaneers at home. I am going to feel like a fool if I lose against the Seahawks again, but the Packers are playing too well, so we’ll try fading Seattle one more time.
Both home teams look good in the Monday night slate. Sam Darnold has played some of the best football of his career lately for Minnesota, and the Falcons have not played well enough lately for me to trust them against my plucky Raiders.
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Brandon’s Posts
Thank you God, for letting me see this memorable manifestation of Steeler MNF magic….
Thank you God, for letting me see this memorable manifestation of Steeler MNF magic. We had a frenzied crowd, a 100+ plus grind out game from nails Najee, George Pickens picking those catches out of the air without a care (but get that other foot down next time, it will win you more points for style than you know), a calm, cool and reflective Russ, who spread the ball around and kept our minds at ease with the flicks he had up his sleeve, Calvin Austin III with two dazzling TDs, and of course the mostly smothering defense, led by our edge rusher wrecking balls. Give the Giants credit for hanging in there, but that ridiculous perversion of a two-point conversion try was just a hopeless harbinger of bad things to come.
ChabDog’s Post-mortem for Bloody Sunday, October 27, 2024
It could have been the one of the greatest Sundays in recent memory — instead here’s how the carnage unfolded:
–Philly pounded the Bungles repeatedly and without mercy in the second half, after things had started rather favorably for Cincy. Hurts was on target and the tush push, not to mention the rest of the Eagle rushing attack, showed up. And I don’t know what happened to the revitalized Bungle d-line. No, there was no vitality. My bad.
— The irresponsible Ravens fiddled and diddled there way to a loss, one that they truly deserved. Famous Jameis is again famous, and they’re doing the crab leg walk in the dog pound. Again, my bad.
— The Lions did show up in a big way. Dorothy Dawn, your bad. Yes, they were more than interested. Pat myself on the freaking back for that ballsy call… lol
— My Cardinals (no… Gidget’s Cardinals) made me proud by defying the big crowd that came to the return of Tua. You go Fun-sized Kyler. My good.
— The Jets walked me down the primrose path, taking a pretty commanding lead on the Patsies, only to wilt a drooping venus fly trap in the face of a furious fourth quarter dead cat bounce by New England. My bad for thinking this game would go like the encounter earlier this year at Metlife.
— Atlanta, almost unexpectedly, held on for dear life, and covered in the always up close and personal meeting with the fagged out Bucs. The Bucs did give it 110%, but now find themself in the bowels of the AFC South, save the very bottom flour inhabited by Scarolina. My good.
— The Packers had the spread handled, or at least technically in hand, until they fells asleep in the 4th, woke up with the usual 3 point win. Ditto for the Texans-Cots. My double bad.
— The Bills oil spilled the Wee-hawks. Is that a defense I’m seeing that could actually stand up to KC. My good for relying on old reliable.
— Chargers manipulate the Aints into a very predictable 18 point loss, which must have been as exciting as standing in a bank line. My good for knowing Rattler would be rattled and Harbaugh would recover his pants, lost in Arizona last week.
— Carolina continues to look not very nice with Bryce, while it increasingly appears Bo knows football again.
— Chiefs did what they often do, dominate a game but do just enough to screw me when I give them my whole hearted support. Or maybe its the Raiders screwing with me?
— Commanders really rip my heart out with that amazing hail Jaden; nearly crashed my bike on my ride home when that result flashed on my phone. Thanks Bears, and my double bad… as I changed my initial pick thinking Daniels wouldn’t be playing.
— Boyz took their eyes off of the ball, lose a lead and then nearly win (and cover); but it was all for nothing, as the final margin for the Niners was 6, not 5.5. Let’s face it,…. post-op Dak just doesn’t want to run for it, and that really limits his team’s down-the-field potentials. My bad.
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Wisconsin is the only undefeated basketball team in the Big Ten
The other day I wondered if Wisconsin could build on its two impressive home wins that it opened the January portion of Big Ten play with. If the Badgers could beat Ohio State on the road, it would prove they have what it takes to compete for the Big Ten title. Well, what do you know? Greg Gard’s team came through for me and made me look like I know ball. I would later find out on Thursday night that I don’t really know ball, but I’ll take my wins where I can get them. Wisconsin and Ohio State went back and forth throughout the evening, but the Badgers pulled ahead at the end thanks to the unlikely heroics of Max Klesmit! He erupted for 18 points, all in the second half, and he helped Wisconsin close the game on a 19-4 run.
Wisconsin had gone seven minutes without a FG… all of a sudden Max Klesmit goes three, driving layup, three to put @BadgerMBB up six! pic.twitter.com/zcUdLfjrUf
— Aaron Yorke (@AaronPYorke) January 11, 2024
This is what happens when you have a team as deep and talented as Wisconsin’s. Your top players don’t need to be at their best all the time if you’re going to win. Just look at Maryland. If Jahmir Young doesn’t score 30 points every night, the Terps are going to lose (unless Donta Scott goes nuts like he did to kill my Michigan spread bet). With the Badgers, they don’t need Chucky Hepburn or Tyler Wahl to carry the load all the time. It’s okay that Steven Crowl is banged up with a knee contusion. Someone like Klesmit or Connor Essegian can take over for a while and lift the team to victory. By the way, shout out to Jamison Battle of Ohio State, who continues to be the hottest shooter in the conference. He went 4-for-5 from deep for 18 points in a losing effort.
Penn State is back to frustrating me
If Penn State is not overcoming double-digit second half deficits in the Big Ten, it is giving up double-digit second half leads. That is what it seems like these days. Both of our conference wins featured big comebacks, while the Maryland loss was painful because of how many chances Penn State had to put the Terps away. Now we get to the Northwestern loss. It was a game that Penn State needed to have if I was going to entertain the notion of a winning conference campaign. With Purdue coming up, the Lions are likely to be below .500 the rest of the way because they blew a 10-point lead in the second half. The Wildcats went on a 19-2 run that was mostly due to two themes.
Here comes @NUMensBball. 😤 pic.twitter.com/cx0PbSGc6i
— Big Ten Men's Basketball (@B1GMBBall) January 11, 2024
First, Penn State could not hit a three-point shot all night. The team shot 3-for-17 from beyond the arc with two of the makes coming from D’Marco Dunn, who still does not play enough. He played 23 minutes, while Zach Hicks went 0-for-6 from deep in his 25 minutes. Those guys don’t play the same position, but Penn State should just go small since its defense stinks anyway. That brings us to the second reason for Northwestern’s run. Penn State cannot get a stop without a turnover. The Lions did a good job forcing 18 of them in this game, but they couldn’t stop the Wildcats from hitting 61 percent of their field goals. Boo Buie got wherever he wanted on the court, and when he was cut off, he found Ty Berry for a three-point shot or Brooks Barnhizer for a layup. The one good thing Penn State did was rebound the ball with 21 on defense compared to just two on offense for Northwestern. But it didn’t matter much when so many Northwestern shots were going in the bucket.
Purdue’s top competition and the Big Ten’s most electric player
The Big Ten is a grind and almost every team will have its ups and downs. Just look and what happened in the Big Ten over the weekend. Purdue got a big win over Illinois, one of its top competitors for the conference title. Based on how the Boilers responded to that loss at Northwestern in January, I thought it was fair to wonder if Matt Painter’s team would lose another game this season. That was stupid. Purdue got hammered by Nebraska on Tuesday, and just a couple of days earlier, the Huskers were humbled by Wisconsin. I should really start to take into account that even the best teams are vulnerable on the road and even the worst teams (not Nebraska, who is looking like an NCAA Tournament team; I’m talking about someone else…) can topple giants at home. The same was apparent in the other Tuesday game with Indiana fresh off a big win over Ohio State in Bloomington and Rutgers reeling from getting crushed by Iowa. So what happened? With the game in Piscataway, Rutgers easily handled Indiana. Here is what else we learned about the Big Ten since last Friday, besides the fact that home court is important.
Austin Williams will be an important factor for Rutgers going forward
Offense is a major issue for Rutgers. Steve Pikiell has relied on stifling defense to win games since arriving in New Jersey seven years ago, but this season getting stops is especially important because the Scarlet Knights are one of the worst shooting teams in the country. Even in the win over Indiana on Tuesday night, Rutgers only shot 32 percent from the field and 23 percent from three-point range. You can play elite defense and still lose by a dozen if you shoot the ball like that. It turned out that the Hoosiers were even more incompetent with 18 turnovers and an unbelievable performance from the free throw line that saw them go 4-for-15. That is so bad that a random fan from the stands could have easily done better.
Anyway, Williams is an experienced guard who played two seasons at Marist and two at Hartford before this year. He has played sparingly for Rutgers, but over the last two games, he has been featured more and has given the team a lift by shooting 11-for-17 with 24 points. He’s not a superstar by any means, but someone needs to score consistently for the Knights, and fans have to be sick of seeing Noah Fernandes disappear in every other game while Derek Simpson chucks up shots that go “clank.”
Wisconsin looks like Purdue’s top competitor with Connor Essegian back in the fold
I might as well talk about Wisconsin now since I just talked about how the Big Ten makes teams look so different depending on whether they are playing at home and on the road. Well, the Badgers have won four straight with all those coming in the Kohl Center. Plus, the last time they played on the road, they were spanked by Arizona 98-73 on December 9. Wisconsin also was crushed at Providence back in November. However, Wisconsin did win its one Big Ten road game at Michigan State, so maybe there is hope that this team can give Purdue a run for its money. It helps that the Badgers are 3-0 in the league after stomping Nebraska over the weekend.
A confident and healthy Connor Essegian is a dangerous man
pic.twitter.com/wAmLyHIJhF— Mark Titus Show (@MarkTitusShow) January 6, 2024
Another boost that Wisconsin gets is Connor Essegian, who was a big weapon last season when he scored 11.7 points per game as a freshman. This season, Essegian has barely played because of a back injury, but during the win over Nebraska, he finally looked like his old self with 12 points off the bench in just 12 minutes. The Badgers were doing fine with Essegian thanks to their usual efficient offense and stingy defense that doesn’t give away offensive rebounds. Plus, head coach Greg Gard brought back a ton of talent from a team that just missed the NCAA Tournament in 2023. With Essegian healthy again, Wisconsin can compete for the Big Ten Championship. Now please don’t lose to Ohio State tonight and make me look like an idiot.
Minnesota might be for real and Penn State definitely stinks
I really thought that Michigan would take advantage of its three-game stretch against Minnesota, Penn State, and Maryland. It had a chance to start 2024 with three straight wins and build some momentum after a disappointing non-conference slate that saw it lose to Long Beach State and McNeese State, as well as four major conference teams. Instead, the Wolverines fell at home to a Minnesota team that has zero quality wins outside of Big Ten play. However, the Gophers clearly have talent and the win in Ann Arbor makes them a dark horse NCAA Tournament contender.
Minnesota 73, Minnesota 71
I hadn’t seen much of Minnesota before Thursday night because of their very low-profile schedule, and because of that schedule, it has a lot of work to do in Big Ten play to get the NCAA Tournament selection committee’s attention. Still, this win over Michigan wasn’t a fluke, and it was impressive how the Gophers limited Dug McDaniel and got balanced scoring to make up for superstar forward Dawson Garcia shooting 5-for-17 from the field. Mike Mitchell Jr. and Elijah Hawkins combined to shoot 8-for-14 from beyond the arc, and the defense was boosted by Pharrel Payne coming off the bench and protecting the rim with four blocked shots.
Michigan was SO CLOSE to tying the game, but the Gophers escape with a win in Ann Arbor. pic.twitter.com/2WGUaS04vL
— NBC Sports (@NBCSports) January 5, 2024
Defense hasn’t been a strong point for the Gophers this season, but in Ann Arbor they held McDaniel to nine points on 3-for-11 shooting. McDaniel missed a runner at the buzzer that could have sent the game into overtime, and Michigan probably would have pulled the game out if he had his typical game. Instead, I was impressed with Minnesota’s point guard. Hawkins transferred from Howard, but he looks like he has played in the Big Ten for years. He knows when to pass and when to call his own number, and that’s why he’s averaging an incredible 7.7 assists per game. Hawkins is a diamond in the rough and I give Gophers head coach Ben Johnson a lot of credit for discovering him.
Big Ten hoops are back and Illinois does not miss Terrence Shannon Jr. yet
I have loved following Big Ten Basketball ever since I was a freshman at Penn State and I realized that while my Nittany Lions were incompetent, there were some other fun teams in the conference. In later years, Penn State would be one of those fun teams, and that was very cool for a bit. In 2024, it looks like that will not be the case, but there is still plenty of excitement in the Big Ten. I guess I’ll try to turn it into content.
There have been five games played since conference play started back up on January 2. Here’s what happened.
Purdue 67, Maryland 53
The Terps tried to fool us with a five-game winning streak in December which included an overtime victory over my Nittany Lions that we practically gave away with our pathetic lack of rebounding as well as an actual quality road win over UCLA. However, it turns out that the Terps still can’t shoot and they still stink. Maybe that is a little harsh since Maryland was playing the best team in the country, but I expected a little more fight from Kevin Willard’s team. Instead, Purdue jumped out to a 16-4 lead and stayed on top throughout the game, while Maryland got very little from anyone not named Jahmir Young. The super senior scored a ridiculous 26 of Maryland’s 53 points, and he shot 12-for-23 while the rest of the team was just 9-for-40. No wonder Young had zero assists on the night. He had almost no help, including a goose egg from Julian Reese, who averages 13.3 points per game! And Purdue is a team you need help against.
Ball movement on 💯. All night. pic.twitter.com/tobVaECayL
— Purdue Men's Basketball (@BoilerBall) January 3, 2024
The Boilers were not even that good on offense, although they did shoot 9-for-20 from beyond the arc. Zach Edey had his typical game with 23 points and 12 rebounds on 8-for-13 shooting, while Braden Smith pitched in with 14 points, 7 rebounds, and 6 assists. It was an easy win for Purdue, who can now focus on the Friday night showdown with Illinois coming up.
Wisconsin 83, Iowa 72
We should have known that Wisconsin would cover the five-point spread when the team held a moment of silence for Herb Kohl before the game. He was the owner of the Milwaukee Bucks and a U.S. senator, but more importantly in this case, he was the man who the Kohl Center was named after. It was only fitting that Wisconsin’s home-court advantage would be on full display the week after Kohl passed away. The game was tied 32-32 at halftime, but the Badgers pulled away in the final 20 minutes thanks to the 26 free throws they attempted in the second half. Iowa got called for a ton of fouls, and that resulted in its best player Ben Krikke being limited to 20 minutes while Wisconsin’s Tyler Wahl scored 11 of his team-high 19 points from the charity stripe.
WHAT A SEQUENCE❗@BadgerMBB just turned defense into highlight baskets on back-to-back possessions. 👀
📺: Big Ten Network pic.twitter.com/HE8MmkGXR7
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) January 3, 2024
Tony Perkins (25 points) and freshman sensation Owen Freeman (14 points, 13 rebounds, 3 blocks) stood out for Iowa, but it was not enough to keep up with Wisconsin’s second half surge. The Badgers are now 2-0 in Big Ten play, while the Hawkeyes fell to 0-3 and they are in desperate need of a win at home against Rutgers on Saturday.
The Astros are Winning the World Series Again
We haven’t seen back-to-back World Series champions since the Yankees won three straight from 1998 to 2000, but I think we’ll see some history this year. The Astros will repeat as champs after having to battle just to qualify for the October tournament.
I guess we’ll never know 🤷♂️ pic.twitter.com/86jCyYO8d8
— Houston Astros (@astros) October 1, 2023
In a series of events that struck too close to home for a Mets fan like myself, the Astros stole the AL West title from the Rangers on the final day of the regular season. Texas choked big time by losing 1-0 to the recently eliminated Mariners when a win would send them through to the ALDS. Instead, it will be Houston bypassing the Wild Card round as the number two seed. That’s a pretty big difference between having to win two out of three games in Tampa Bay just to reach the Division Series.