See things others don’t!

Here we are at Week 18 and there is no more time for me to improve my dreadful picks record for this season. Mathematically, it is still possible to get back to .500, but that will require an incredible heater, and heaters are difficult when a lot of teams aren’t trying to win this week. Not only that, but the motivations for these teams are fluid and the NFL is too stupid to play all these games at the same time like a proper league would. For example, the five seed in the AFC is valuable because that team gets to travel to feeble Houston in the Wild Card Round instead of Baltimore or Buffalo. If Pittsburgh wins on Saturday, it takes the Chargers out of the running for that spot and they could lay down for the suddenly surging Raiders.

I’ll be taking the Steelers since they are home underdogs (even though that didn’t work last week) and the Chargers with the hope that they are motivated to stomp Las Vegas. The Ravens are now favored by an unheard of 20 points vs. Cleveland because they are playing for the AFC North title, so I’ll get out of their way and lay those points. Washington has clinched a Playoff spot, but there is plenty of reason to win at Dallas because a loss might force the Commies play at Philadelphia in the Wild Card Round instead of at Los Angeles against a Rams offense that has been held under 20 points in three straight games. That same motivation is in play for the Packers, who need a win and a Washington loss to avoid Philly. Speaking the Eagles, they have chosen against embarrassing the Giants by having Saquon Barkley rest instead of shattering the single-season rushing record against them. That gives me hope that Big Blue can end the season with a second straight win. Hopefully there will still be someone talented to select when our first round draft pick finally comes around.

Buffalo is also laying points while resting starters, but I trust Mitch Trubisky enough to give it the nod against New England. Denver is a massive favorite over Kansas City in a must-win game for the Broncos. I think they get the job done, but Carson Wentz playing spoiler would be hilarious, so give me the points in that one. In the great Sunday Night Football game, I like the Lions despite their defensive issues. They might be scarier on offense with Jahmyr Gibbs taking on a heavier workload due to David Montgomery’s injury.

Merry Christmas! Roger Goodell gave his haters a special gift this year by figuring out how to play NFL football on a Wednesday while lining the owners’ pockets with Netflix money. That’s great news for those of us who thought we would have to watch the NBA on Christmas. The only thing that can make the deal better is if I can get a couple of picks correct. The Steelers are down bad after two straight double-digit losses to Super Bowl contenders, but now they are home underdogs against the Chiefs, and I love their chances to win outright even though Kansas City has finally started covering spreads. In its only other road dog spot this season, Pittsburgh defeated the Ravens outright. In the late game, Baltimore looks to cover as a road favorite for the third time in a row. I’m happy to lay those points with how Lamar Jackson and the offense have played all year.

For the Boxing Day special, I am doing the square thing and taking Seattle. It has been a long time coming, but I finally have confidence in the Seahawks again, even if it is only because they are playing a Chicago team that has lost nine in a row, with the last three coming by at least two scores.

The Chargers coming east on a short week is a little scary, but they play an east coast style of ball, so I will bank on them bludgeoning New England. The Bengals are finally hitting their stride, but I don’t think they hold off Bo Nix and the bucking Broncos. Arizona is in a tailspin, which means that it is time to Ram It. Sean McVay’s team is coming off ATS wins against two other tailspin teams in the 49ers and Jets.

Sunday will feel strange with just nine games on the slate, but Green Bay at Minnesota should be a great game. The spread being fewer than three points is a little disrespectful to the Vikings, so I will roll with them. In the late afternoon, almost everyone will be watching the Cowboys and Eagles. Let’s go with Dallas and the huge number since Dem Boyz have won four of five and have figured out how to run the ball lately. In prime time, I like how Michael Penix Jr. looked in his first start enough to take Atlanta in Washington’s letdown spot. Laying points with the Lions is the squarest pick of the week for me, but they came through as a big road favorite last week, so it must be done.

I went 9-7 last week and clawed to within 15 games of .500 at 104-119-1 with three weeks to play. That ground is not impossible to make up, but it is going to take foresight, discipline, and some hefty road favorites covering this week. Just look at that Detroit line at Chicago. It’s over a touchdown even though the Lions were shredded on defense last week and nearly allowed a miracle comeback by Caleb Williams on Thanksgiving. So why are we backing Detroit? Because this season, laying the big number with Detroit has paid off. The Lions are 3-1 against the spread when being favored by seven or more, and I expect them to pound the struggling Bears.

I am also taking the Rams, Eagles, Vikings, and Buccaneers as road favorites. They probably won’t all work out, but maybe they will go 3-1 since all four are surging right now while playing inferior competition. I actually like the Giants pick this week since they were able to move the ball a little against Baltimore and Michael Penix Jr. is making his first start for Atlanta. Maybe a rookie mistake or two will help the Giants intercept the ball for the third time this season.

I might not even watch the NFL on Saturday because of the College Football Playoff and a decent college hoops slate, but I expect Kansas City and Pittsburgh to come through for me. The Chiefs have transformed into favorites with the news that Patrick Mahomes is practicing fully this week, so getting two and a half points makes this one the easiest pick on the board. For the Steelers, they failed me as underdogs in Philadelphia, but I’m rolling with them again since they own Lamar Jackson.

Back to Sunday, I am becoming the Carolina whisperer as I smartly jumped off the bandwagon last week when Sir Purr and company became favorites against Dallas. However, now the Cats are back to being dogs and facing a floundering Cardinals team at home. Sign me back up!

Bad news for the haters: None of my fantasy teams made the playoffs, so I have more attention to devote to picks! We are running out of time to make a comeback, but at least I don’t have to worry about how much FAAB money to drop on the waiver wire every week. What I do need to worry about is whether or not the 49ers are back. They burned my strategy of continuing to fade them with their destruction of the Bears, but I think they come back to Earth in a tough divisional game. I am going to Ram It for the first time in a while.

In the next three games, I have big home dogs. The Chiefs never cover, so Cleveland is an easy pick. Cincinnati’s cover in the Simpsons game was a total fluke and Lisa Simpson won’t bail them out this time. Tennessee was terrible against Jacksonville, but I’m sure Will Levis will bounce back now that I’m not relying on him to save my fantasy team. New Orleans is getting way too many points against a Washington team that hasn’t impressed lately.

That brings us to the return of Tommy DeVito to MetLife Stadium. I am actually happy to see him again because Drew Lock was beyond miserable last week, but that doesn’t mean the Giants have a snowball’s chance to beat Baltimore. I think the Ravens win by at least 20 as Derrick Henry attempts a single game rushing record.

The Giants will not be fun to watch, but Dallas at Carolina should be a pretty interesting game considering how bad the record are. The Panthers have been money against the spread as a dog, but I’m not feeling them as a favorite. I think the Cowboys win outright. The Jets are another team I don’t feel great about as a favorite, but I feel better about them than the Jaguars. Plus, Aaron Rodgers is coming off one of his best games a Jet.

Dolphins vs. Texans is close to a toss-up, but I’ll take Houston because of how consistently it runs the ball with Joe Mixon. I feel a lot better about Denver as a home favorite because of how well it has played lately with three straight wins by more than a touchdown. The Lions are still an auto pick because they never lose, and the Steelers get the nod in the underdog spot as usual.

I have to fade the Cardinals, as they have hit the skids with three straight losses. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has won three straight, but the Chargers are a big step up in competition and should handle the Buccaneers at home. I am going to feel like a fool if I lose against the Seahawks again, but the Packers are playing too well, so we’ll try fading Seattle one more time.

Both home teams look good in the Monday night slate. Sam Darnold has played some of the best football of his career lately for Minnesota, and the Falcons have not played well enough lately for me to trust them against my plucky Raiders.

I like big dogs and I cannot lie! I am taking the point in nine of the 13 games this week, and I am feeling good about it after going 9-7 in Week 13. It should have been 10-6, but Jameis Winston just could not stop throwing pick sixes. And even when Jameis stopped throwing pick sixes, he tossed a regular old interception in the end zone to ruin the backdoor cover. I am mad at him! But I am still going back to the Browns because we just saw them beat Pittsburgh a couple of weeks ago. I am gobbling up those six and a half points! I also can’t resist Chicago since its opponent the 49ers have gone 0-2 against the spread since they inexplicably lost to Seattle and I began fading them. The Raiders and Panthers have also been very plucky lately and continue to attract big spreads. Just look at what AOC did for the Las Vegas offense! I am even loving my Giants this week with Drew Lock under center for the second week in a row. Maybe he finally got some time with the first string offense. If he did, the Giants could have an upset in store for a New Orleans team playing outside of its cozy dome. As for a great favorite to back? The Bills are a juggernaut and have won five of their last six by more than a touchdown.