Abe’s Week 4 Shitty NFL Picks (AST)

Hey everyone and welcome to another episode of me making shitty picks based on flawed science, numbies, and logic since my current record is:

Week 1: 6

Week 2: 8

Week 3: 6

Also, need to honorably mention that you’ll have a whopping 42.55% chance that you’ll make any money off my NFL picks so, “Yes, I’m truly the Oakland A’s of making NFL picks this season”!  But then again, you can fade me for a 57.45% chance of making money from my picks (not bad).  So let’s try this again with the goal of getting into the double digits with my Week 4 picks.

PACKERS +1.5*: “Love” how the Packers are going into this game at home as undergogs considering Aaron Jones might still come in and play as he’s listed as “questionable” right now. The battle of the 2-1 teams will make for a great competitive Thursday Night Football game with the Packers edging out the Lions at Lambeau Field.

JAGUARS -3*: Excited to see this game in Toy Story mode on Disney + as this game will be played at Wembley Stadium in London with no team actually being at “home”…and, with only diehard Flacons and Jags fans making up the minority of European NFL fans who may have no particular loyalty to either team but are there to drink, cause hell, and watch LIVE American “futbol”.  Both teams will be traveling far with jet lag sucking for both of them.  On paper, I think an argument can be made for either team since the Jags have better offensive yards than the Falcons, and the Falcons have given up less defensively than the Jags.  Ultimately, I think Trevor Lawrence is the better and more experienced QB who is hunting for a win after losing to the Texans as a 9.5-point favorite last week. Fortunately for us, the spread is only 3.

BILLS -2.5*: I know a lot of folks are leaning on the Dolphins to bulldoze every team in the NFL by 50 points, but I am going with the Bills at home even though the Dolphins are an offensive powerhouse.  However, let’s keep in mind that the Bills are also an offensive powerhouse, with a better defense than Miami. One thing to keep in mind is that Miami has a lot of inflated offensive numbies right now because the Broncos sucked super ass and got blown out of the water by 50 points.  I don’t expect a repeat here in Buffalo.

VIKINGS -3.5*: The battle of the 0-3 teams begins.  I can tell you that I’ve picked the Vikings and have lost my ass to them in the last 3 weeks, however, the Vikings come into this game as the clear winner of the offensive game with fantastic numbies coming from Kirk Cousins (QB) and Justin Jefferson (WR).  Yes, I’ve been talking like this about the Vikings since Week 1, but we’re also talking about the 0-3 Carolina Panthers.  Not going to lie, but if I come out a loser on this pick I’ll pretty much hate the Vikings for the rest of the season.

BRONCOS -3.5* “SHIT GAME OF THE WEEK”: Welcome Ladies & Gentleman to the “Shit Game of The Week”.  Two shitty teams battling it out in Chicago where the loser will be crowned a real, real shitty team.  Favoring the Broncos on their offensive advantage and Sean Payton needing to redeem himself after losing to the Dolphins by 50 points.

BROWNS -2.5*: Counting on Deshaun Watson (QB) and Kareem Hunt (RB) to play and provide the offense to beat the Ravens.  Also, we need to acknowledge that the Browns have great defensive numbies and I expect them to put the brakes on Lamar Jackson (QB).

STEELERS -3*: Yes, Houston has better offensive and defensive numbers right now, but they’ve also only won one fluke game against a Jaguars team that was a 9.5-point favorite.  Steelers on the other hand beat the Raiders in Vegas, and the Browns with a powerful defense.  This game might bring the Texans back to reality with a loss here at home.

RAMS +1*:  The Colts QB situation will be a real factor in this game.  If Anthony Richardson does come back to play against the Rams, then +1 will look like a steal since he hasn’t played in a few weeks.  Offensively and defensively the Rams hold the advantage.  Although they’ve lost the last two games, it’s also worth mentioning it was against the Bengals and 49rs.  Rams need to get back in the W column and I think they’ll resurrect their mojo from Game 1 to get it done here.

BUCS +3.5*: As of right now, Derek Carr (QB) is still questionable for this game, and I expect that without the Saint’s star QB, for the Saints to go into suck-ass mode.  Regardless, I can’t see D. Carr at 100%, even if he does play. My money is on the Bucs +3.5.

Eagles -8.5*: The 3-0 Eagles are hot with the Commanders proving that they can lose by 34 points.  I feel like 8.5 points is chump change for the Eagles with this team easily going 4-0 at home.

Bengals -2.5*: On paper, both teams look equal with 1 tight game Win a piece.  Ultimately, the Bengals are a slightly better team, and that is why they’re favored to win by a low margin.  Gotta pick a side, and am banking on the Bengals’ coming off a win to edge them out over the Titans by more than 2.5 points.   Ra

Chargers -5.5*:   Without Jimmy Garoppolo (QB), the Raiders are pretty much walking into an electrocution in LA.  If Garoppolo does play, then it may be possible to see the Raiders come within the point spread since they haven’t lost by more than 5 points if you omit their Buffalo Bills game

Cowboys -7*:  The Patriots and the Cowboys have both faced the Jets in the first few weeks of the season with the Cowboys going 30-10 and the Pats going 15-10.  On paper, both teams look equal, so no one here is the clear winner.  However, the Cowboys have proven to be strong offensively, and I expect them to play hard at home after losing to the Arizona Cardinals 28-16.

Cardinals +14*:  We all know the 3-0 49ers are good.  We also know that it’s very likely the 49ers will go 4-0 after playing the Cardinals at home. However, the same could be said about the Cowboys who also lost to the Cardinals as a heavy favorite meaning that the Cardinals could keep this game tighter than what the bookmakers in Vegas are calling for.  Another factor in this game is that Deebo Samuel (WR) is currently listed as questionable which favors the Cardinals tremendously if he does not play or is not running at 100%.

Chiefs -9.5*: The Chiefs are feeling good after beating the Bears by 31 points, while the Jets continue to struggle under Zach Wilson. Taylor Swift is expected to be at the game to motivate Travis Kelce to get TD after TD with the media going bananas every time Travis touches the ball while robbing Jackson and Brittany Mahomes from the spotlight (oh no..what shall we do?).

Seahawks +1.5*:  What a gift to have the Seahawks come into this game as 1.5-point underdogs.  Right off the bat, the Giants star RB Saquan Barkley is listed as questionable, and the Giants cannot afford to lose anybody right now.  I mean, this team is already bad with a full squad, so losing your RB or not being able to play him at 100% is just bad. Ultimately, this will be a great Monday Night Football game if you’re a Seahawks fan so go out and get yourself some beer, pizza, and chicken wings, and go watch the Giants lose in New Jersey.

*Odds courtesy of MGM Sportsbook (09/27/2023)

| | @darthvaber99







Submit a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *