Week 1 – NFL Picks – Against The Spread (ATS)

It’s that special time of year again when Chabdog Sports goes all in on football and every person on our team must once again prove that they can go over .500 or lose their job here like Squid Games.  Of course, we don’t actually do that because we’re pretty chill SoCal people, but it would make for some good content…just saying. Anyways, every week our fabulous producer Well Read hands us the sheet below and we go up against the football gods, the oddsmakers, and our co-hosts to be crowned the 23-24 NFL season champion.  Pretty straightforward, pick the most winning teams ATS.  Since we can’t officially gamble on sports here in California, I still go into this as if I were in Vegas. Interestingly enough, I happen to be in Vegas this weekend so don’t be surprised if you find me at the sportsbook with an AMF in my hand.  Again, I look at every matchup and imagine myself placing 20 bucks on each line here, so LFG.

NFL Week 1 picks 2023

CHIEFS – I know our spread here says 6.5 but that has actually gone down closer to 5.  Either way, it’s difficult for me to see the Superbowl Champ Chiefs getting their asses handed to them by the Lions. If they do, it’s going to be a pretty big upset with a lot of memes showing up on the TL from now until Sunday.

FALCONS – I like this home-field advantage for the Falcons with a 3-point spread.  I also don’t like how many questionable players the Panthers have or their super poopie pre-season.

RAVENS –  LOL Texans

BROWNS – Although most people I know are leaning on the Bengals here, we also need to understand that Joe Burrow is coming off an injury and was carted off the field a little over a month ago. Because of this, I’m putting my 20 bucks on the Browns since my confidence that he’ll be A++ is low right now.  Also helps that this is a home game for the Browns.

JAGUARS – This team had a great run this year (9-8), and might once again be king of the AFC South.  So asking for 3.5 points doesn’t seem impossible to me against the Colts.

VIKINGS –  Up until yesterday, I saw that Mike Evans was questionable for a groin issue.  Glad he’ll get to play, and hope it’s not an issue since he’s off the list. However, we also have to accept that Justin Jefferson is elite and was the number-one pick in my fantasy league for a reason, and why I was able to get Josh Allen as my QB (I went second in the draft). Also, this is a home opener for them so I expect them to shine in front of their home crowd.

SAINTS – The Titans have the worst passing defense and Derek Carr has something to prove in New Orleans at his regular season debut. Saints to cover 3.5 points against the Titans.

STEELERS –   Chabdog is a huge Steelers fan so I know he’ll be pleased with this pick.  Aside from them having a nice pre-season, this is also going to be a home game for them. Purdy will be at the helm for the 49ers but they only have a 2.5 advantage. This tells me that a lot of football is expected to go the Steeler’s way, and being a new season, hopefully, this will energize them to capitalize on any mistake the 49ers make in this game.

COMMANDERS – Cardinals are a joke, and I expect the Commanders to win by at least 6 points at home.   Also, according to Ceasars Sportsbook, the Commander’s Super Bowl odds are +8000 vs. +70000 for the Cardinals.

PACKERS – Jordan Love has something to prove, and is only a 2.5-point underdog (not bad).  Also helps that they’re playing their rival Bears and Jordan would be considered a hero amongst Cheeseheads if he beats them at their own stadium on Sunday. Hold up, let’s see what an Aaron-less Packers team can cook.

BRONCOS – It’s always the mile-high advantage when you’re favored by 3.5 points at home.  Excited to see what Sean Payton has cooking over there in Denver, but really want to see if he’s put a binkie in Russell Wilson’s mouth so he can start acting like a formidable QB.

CHARGERS –  Dolphins are simply way more hurt than the Chargers who only need to cover a 2.5-point spread at home for the cash out in Vegas.

Week 1 Injury Report | Chargers vs. Dolphins

EAGLES – Last year the Eagles started extremely strong, and would be surprised if they didn’t come out of the gate with the same passion as last year in their home opener.  Only need to beat the Pats by 4 points at home to cash this ticket out, and if they repeat what they did last year….it’s like taking an iPad from a baby.

SEAHAWKS – The Rams are just an ugly mess.  Very poopie pre-season and no Cooper Kupp (WR).  Seahawks to beat the Rams at home by more than 5.5 points.

GIANTS – It’s safe to assume that most people are probably picking the Cowboys considering their past stats with the Giants being in their favor.  However, this Giants team is a little refreshed and has a few new players since they last faced each other such as Darren Waller (TE), Bobby Okereke (LB), Parris Campbell, and Jalin Hyatt (WR), John Michael Schmitz (C), and Deonte Banks and Tre Hawkins III (CB).  Also, the Giants know that the Cowboys have a better record against them so coming out of the gate strong in front of their fans at home would be a great way for them to start their season and tip the scale. Considering this is just a 3-point spread, it’s safe to assume that the odd makers also consider the Giants a little more formidable against a team that has proven to have a better record against them.

BILLS – This MNF definitely goes in the LFG column!  Aaron Rodgers debuting for the Jets against the Bills!  A 1.5 point spread! A possible upset with the Jets beating the Bills and New Yorkers going hysterical!  Here’s the thing, I don’t know if I would bet on this game because no one knows if Aaron is going to be a star or bust for the NY Jets.  Since I have to pick a side here, I’m simply considering that the Bills are a great team that’s a little more familiar with each other to pull the advantage. Additionally, I’m also counting on that Aaron Rodgers isn’t Tom Brady who’s going to lead the Jets to a Superbowl victory in his first season with them and maybe show a few kinks in his armor in this game to tip 1.5 points.  Again, I need to see him play a few games before I put money down on the Jets.  But if we need to drop a coin…Bills.

| @darthvaber99




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