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What we learned today in the NFL —
— Dallas does have some pride after all
— Tampa Bay is jinxed
— New England is both pesky and pitiful at the same time
— Cincy is on a mission… possibly to nowhere
— Cleveland is DOA with DTR
— Miami still looks like one of the best of those who get a rest after Week 18.
— The Rams have a great coach, a great QB, some great receivers, a money RB and a scrappy defense …. which might be all they need to win the NFC
— The Eagles can’t get a Super Bowl ticket with Pickett
— Detroit should not consider Chicago a tune up for anything,… including the Vikings
— Atlanta seems to be rising like a Phoenix, with Penix
Hey everyone and welcome to NFL Week 16 where I try to beat the spread every week, make a little money, or brag to our work besties that we simply pick winners cause our state doesn’t allow sports betting yet (fuck you California). So take a look below…let me know in the comments section if I fucked this up or on any of my social media handles (note my Week 15 picks were 87.5% on the money). Let’s fucking gooooooooo.
| | @gawdbrudder
I went 9-7 last week and clawed to within 15 games of .500 at 104-119-1 with three weeks to play. That ground is not impossible to make up, but it is going to take foresight, discipline, and some hefty road favorites covering this week. Just look at that Detroit line at Chicago. It’s over a touchdown even though the Lions were shredded on defense last week and nearly allowed a miracle comeback by Caleb Williams on Thanksgiving. So why are we backing Detroit? Because this season, laying the big number with Detroit has paid off. The Lions are 3-1 against the spread when being favored by seven or more, and I expect them to pound the struggling Bears.
I am also taking the Rams, Eagles, Vikings, and Buccaneers as road favorites. They probably won’t all work out, but maybe they will go 3-1 since all four are surging right now while playing inferior competition. I actually like the Giants pick this week since they were able to move the ball a little against Baltimore and Michael Penix Jr. is making his first start for Atlanta. Maybe a rookie mistake or two will help the Giants intercept the ball for the third time this season.
I might not even watch the NFL on Saturday because of the College Football Playoff and a decent college hoops slate, but I expect Kansas City and Pittsburgh to come through for me. The Chiefs have transformed into favorites with the news that Patrick Mahomes is practicing fully this week, so getting two and a half points makes this one the easiest pick on the board. For the Steelers, they failed me as underdogs in Philadelphia, but I’m rolling with them again since they own Lamar Jackson.
Back to Sunday, I am becoming the Carolina whisperer as I smartly jumped off the bandwagon last week when Sir Purr and company became favorites against Dallas. However, now the Cats are back to being dogs and facing a floundering Cardinals team at home. Sign me back up!
Bad news for the haters: None of my fantasy teams made the playoffs, so I have more attention to devote to picks! We are running out of time to make a comeback, but at least I don’t have to worry about how much FAAB money to drop on the waiver wire every week. What I do need to worry about is whether or not the 49ers are back. They burned my strategy of continuing to fade them with their destruction of the Bears, but I think they come back to Earth in a tough divisional game. I am going to Ram It for the first time in a while.
In the next three games, I have big home dogs. The Chiefs never cover, so Cleveland is an easy pick. Cincinnati’s cover in the Simpsons game was a total fluke and Lisa Simpson won’t bail them out this time. Tennessee was terrible against Jacksonville, but I’m sure Will Levis will bounce back now that I’m not relying on him to save my fantasy team. New Orleans is getting way too many points against a Washington team that hasn’t impressed lately.
That brings us to the return of Tommy DeVito to MetLife Stadium. I am actually happy to see him again because Drew Lock was beyond miserable last week, but that doesn’t mean the Giants have a snowball’s chance to beat Baltimore. I think the Ravens win by at least 20 as Derrick Henry attempts a single game rushing record.
The Giants will not be fun to watch, but Dallas at Carolina should be a pretty interesting game considering how bad the record are. The Panthers have been money against the spread as a dog, but I’m not feeling them as a favorite. I think the Cowboys win outright. The Jets are another team I don’t feel great about as a favorite, but I feel better about them than the Jaguars. Plus, Aaron Rodgers is coming off one of his best games a Jet.
Dolphins vs. Texans is close to a toss-up, but I’ll take Houston because of how consistently it runs the ball with Joe Mixon. I feel a lot better about Denver as a home favorite because of how well it has played lately with three straight wins by more than a touchdown. The Lions are still an auto pick because they never lose, and the Steelers get the nod in the underdog spot as usual.
I have to fade the Cardinals, as they have hit the skids with three straight losses. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has won three straight, but the Chargers are a big step up in competition and should handle the Buccaneers at home. I am going to feel like a fool if I lose against the Seahawks again, but the Packers are playing too well, so we’ll try fading Seattle one more time.
Both home teams look good in the Monday night slate. Sam Darnold has played some of the best football of his career lately for Minnesota, and the Falcons have not played well enough lately for me to trust them against my plucky Raiders.
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Law Offices of Brandon S. Chabner
Brandon’s Posts
ChabDog’s Week 7 Sports Rock Pool winners…. It’s risky business but somebody’s gotta do it…. inspired by last year’s champion and this year’s beautiful loser, Phil Kissfan…. picks with a Bob Seger twis
SAINTS give the erratic Bronco offense the Silver Bullett treatment
JAGUARS win at Wembley because the ex-Patriots are still the same…. they totally suck
Like a rock through scissors, the LIONS bust up the Purple Pillagers in their own village
Queen City has her strutt back, as BEN-GALS fortified d-line and swarming pass defense completly clamps down on the Browns.
McVay’s RAMS have their way in this Hollywood fight with the depleted and defeated Raiders
Despite Davante, it’s the STEELERS who have the night moves Sunday pm
Buccs are living inside the hearts of their city, but the RAVENS are just too good… CHARGERS’ travelling men kick the stuffing out of the Cardinals
ChabDog’s Yom Kicker Weekend Picks (Sanctioned by a “Higher Authority”):
- J’ville feels right at home against Da Bears, who don’t really like swimming across the pond. Chicago -1.5 is not a winner.
- True to form, AZ follows a good week with a bad one, and GB is happy to be coming home (they cover 4.5)
- TN is like a Hebrew National juicy dog… they are on a roll. Take the Ti-tans (-.5)
- Houston brings its flimsy running game into Gillette (is that what they call it?) to face the New England Nebbishes. Can’t bring myself to throw in my lot with the ultimate have nots. Houston covers.
- Tampa finds there is life after getting violated in the GA Dome. They will gladly and successfully take the 2.5 in the Big Queasy.
- God almighty I hate taking Philly to cover a big bad 8.5 spread; but I hate counting on Beaver Cleveland even more. Going with the Eagles on this one, … somehow. Plus, a little birdie told me DJ Brown (not Hollywood) was back in town.
- Baltimore couldn’t be more unreliable here, giving a jive 6.5. I’m still jaded from watching “Jayden” do his thang…. taking the Commies.
- Chargers are suddenly a 2.5 fav. and the darlings of the odds makers. I guess this means Justin’s rib is tender no more. No matter, cuz I’m fixing to put my money on the team led by Nix… Broncs buck the stupid spread… and win at home.
- Pittsburgh should be able to beat a messed up Raiders team by a measly field goal…. so pencil me in for the low octane Steelers in an ugly ugly game.
- Detroit at Dallas should be the game of the day. Is 3.5 just a little too rich for Dapper Dan’s dynamos? Nah! Going with the Lions to cover that by a whisker.
- Hot-lanta keeps it going in Carolina, and now all the Georgians will be kissing the feet of Cousins. Take the effing Falcons and the effing Five point Five.
- Just when the Jr. G-men thought they were back on track, Cincy stings them with the gridiron version of Blonde Ambition. This will be another Joey Burrow special, and I am taking the Bungles giving 3.5.
- Can’t see Home Improvement Allen not improving on last week’s doggie style performance at the junkyard Jets. Bills by at least 3.
Well Read’s Posts
Well Read Week 3 Picks Yabba Dabba Doo!
Let’s forget about last week’s 6 wins and the Patriots loosing +6.5 last night.
News Flash! The Giants really do suck and Jones is a bust. Browns D will win it. Take Cleveland -6.5
The Bears will find a way to loose and Indy won’t start 0-3. Take the Colts -1.5
Houston is better than the Vikings all around. Take the Texans -4.5
Are the Saints for real? I think so. Philly is phading. Take the Saints +2.5
Chargers are questionable at QB. Pitts defense is solid, Take the Steelers -2.5
Denver is a dumpster fire. Tampa is great. Take the Buccs -6.5
How are the Titans favored? Not a Willis fan but GB plays like a team. Take the Pack +2.5
Minshew is the next Jim Plunkett. Carolina benched Brice Young. Take the Raiders -6.5
Miami has no QB. Seattle has a great D. Take Seattle in the rain -5.5
Last week was a fluke for Arizona and Detroit. Take the Lions -3.5
Dallas sucks! Take Baltimore -1.5
The Rams got embarrassed last week and risk going 0-3. SF won’t win. Take the Rams +7.5
Atlanta showed its for real on MNF. KC is hanging on by a thread. Take the Falcuns +4.5
Jax is weak but something tells me the Bills won’t cover. Take Jax +5.5
Cincinnati won’t go 0-3 but neither will they cover. Take the Commies +7.5
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NFL Week Three Spreads
Abe’s Posts
Week 10: Abe’s Shitty NFL Picks (AST)
Hey everyone and welcome to another episode of me making shitty picks based on flawed science, numbies based solely on Taylor Swift’s game attendance, and very mistaken logic since my current record is:
Week 1: 6 Week 2: 8 Week 3: 6 Week 4: 8 Week 5: 6 Week 6: 11 Week 7: 4 Week 8: 7 Week 9: 10
Also, need to honorably mention that fading me statistically (51.75%) gives you a better chance of making any money from my NFL picks, hence, Abe’s Shitty NFL Picks. So let’s try this again with the goal of trying to pick more right games than wrong ones in Week 10!
PANTHERS | BEARS -3.5: I lost this game by .5 point as the final score was 13-16 Bears. I truly am a POS.
— Abe (@DarthVaber99) November 9, 2023
COLTS -1.5 | PATRIOTS: Two very terrible teams square off against each other with the Colts coming into this one with a better record, a better offense, and in Frankfurt. So no team here truly has the home-field advantage as most Europeans are simply there to see an NFL game. The only other advantage the Colts have here is a little confidence after beating the Panthers in Week 9 and the ability to score 25+ points against the SAINTS and the BROWNS even though they lost the games. However, the PATRIOTS are neither the SAINTS nor the BROWNS, and why the COLTS are slightly favored in this one (and my pick).
49ERS | JAGUARS +3: The 49ERS look great offensively with their star QB, RB, and WR showing better offensive numbies than the JAGS, however, the 49ERS are coming into this one with a 3-game losing streak against teams with a worse record than the JAGS. On the flip side, I can’t even recall when the JAGS even lost a game as they’re currently 6-2 and playing at home in this one. Lastly, the JAGS have beaten their last 5 opponents by more than 3 points and they’re coming off a BYE week. Lock it in…JAGS.
SAINTS -2.5 | VIKINGS: The VIKINGS are in a funky place as both Justin Jefferson (WR) and Kirk Cousins (QB) are on the IR. However, I like Joshua Dobbs AKA “Passtronaut”, and do hope he can put his rocket scientist mind to good use for the VIKINGS (rooting for the nerd). However, we still have a lot of unknowns here and they’re coming against Derek Carr and the SAINTS with more offensive weapons and more playing time. Simply taking experience over uncertainty & beyond in this one.
TITANS | BUCS -1.5: Here we have another two teams with the same W-L record battling it out this week with the BUCS coming into this one as the hometown favorites. Probably even more so now that Ryan Tannehill has been replaced with Will Levis for the remainder of the season who will be making his third start for the team with a 1-1 record. Hard to see a rookie QB beating out a more experienced one in Tampa Bay in this one, but glad the spread is tiny.
BROWNS | RAVENS -6: The RAVENS have easily won their last 4 games by more than 6 points, and it shouldn’t be a problem for them against a BROWNS team that has a rusty Deshaun Watson (QB) who still doesn’t feel 100% with his rotator cuff strain. Little things that can make a big difference here against a RAVENS team that has been dominating their last 4 games and at home in this one.
TEXANS +6.5 | BENGALS: The TEXANS have done great in trying to keep games close or even winning them this season. C.J. Stroud (QB) has also been impressive going for 2270 yards for 14TD with only 1 interception. Again, very impressive with better numbies than Joe Burrow. The other thing that is in favor of the TEXANS is that the BENGALS star WR, Ja’Marr Chase, is still listed as questionable with back soreness. Things that could affect the BENGALS offensive game even if he does play. Hard to see the BENGALS run away with this one. Lock in on the TEXANS with this fat spread.
PACKERS | STEELERS -3: The PACKERS and the STEELERS have not been amazing so far, but the STEELERS have been better in beating the Titans, the Rams, and the Ravens by more than 3 points in the last month. Additionally, the STEELERS have had a few extra rest days than the PACKERS with a home-field advantage that is looking to beat the PACKERS by more than 3 points in this one.
FALCONS -1.5 | CARDINALS: QB Kyler Murray is returning after being out for 11 months for a torn ACL to his right knee. Combine a rusty QB with RB James Conner also coming off the IR for things to swing in favor of the FALCONS with a low spread working for them in this one.
LIONS -2.5 | CHARGERS: The LIONS are coming off a bye week with a 6-2 record and a great offense. The CHARGERS are coming off a two-game winning streak, but only putting it together to beat the Jets and the Bears. Two teams that are not as strong as the LIONS. Well-rested LIONS to challenge the Chargers at home.
GIANTS | COWBOYS -16.5: You know the GIANTS are bad when taking the COWBOYS at -16.5 points. However, when you factor in that the GIANTS have no QB, and the best they can do is Tommy DeVito in Dallas, ooooooooooooooooooooooooooffffff, this team is cooooooooked!!!
COMMANDERS +6.5 | SEAHAWKS: The SEAHAWKS are favored in this game by 6.5 points, yet the SEAHAWKS have not been able to beat a team by that much since playing the Cardinals in Week 7 and the COMMANDERS are no Cardinals. Lastly, the SEAHAWKS just lost badly to the Ravens and could not even score more than 3 points in Week 9. So technically, the SEAHWAKS couldn’t even score enough points in their last game to even make the spread in this one..let alone beat a team by this many points. Lock it in, COMMANDERS +6.5.
JETS | RAIDERS +1.5: The JETS got crucified last week with QB Zach Wilson getting sacked over and over again by the Chargers while the RAIDERS demolished the GIANTS 30-6. Yet, the RAIDERS are not favored in this one and at home. Yes, we can look at what the Raiders have done so far and say they havn’t been great, but they also changed coach and things appear to have gotten better for them since then. So lets let Antonio Pierce cook and see what he has in store for the Jets in this one considering he’s 1-0 as the new Raiders coach.
BRONCOS +7.5 | BILLS: The BILLS are in a funky spot this season but mostly a dissapointment in the last 5 games. Especially since they’ve not been able to beat any team by 7.5 since Week 4. Including the dumpster fire Giants in Week 6. The BRONCOS have also been garbage, but they’ve also managed to beat the KC Chiefs in Week 9 and the Packers in Week 8. So we got the BRONCOS in an upswing and the BILLS in a downswing with the Broncos coming off a BYE Week. All things that are screaming that the BRONCOS are not going to get beaten by 7.5 points in this one.
*All odds courtesy of Bet MGM on 11/08/2023
Let me know in the comments your thoughts on Week 10 below, or where posted
| | @darthvaber99
Week 9: Abe’s Shitty NFL Picks (AST)
Hey everyone and welcome to another episode of me making shitty picks based on flawed science, numbies based solely on Taylor Swift’s game attendance, and mistaken logic since my current record is:
Week 1: 6 Week 2: 8 Week 3: 6 Week 4: 8 Week 5: 6 Week 6: 11 Week 7: 4 Week 8: 7
Also, need to honorably mention that fading me statistically (53.33%) gives you a way better chance of making any money from my NFL picks, hence, Abe’s Shitty NFL Picks. So let’s try this again with the goal of trying to pick more right games than wrong ones in Week 9!
STEELERS -2.5
DOLPHINS +2.5
COMMANDERS +3.5
RAVENS -5.5
CARDINALS +8
BUCS +2.5
PACKERS -3
FALCONS -5.5
SAINTS -7.5
COLTS -2.5
RAIDERS -2.5
EAGLES -3
BENGALS -2.5
CHARGERS -3
*All odds courtesy of Bet MGM on 11/01/2023
Let me know in the comments your thoughts on Week 9 below, or wherever you find this posted on social media
| | @darthvaber99
Dorothy’s Posts
Aaron’s Posts
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