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BRANDON S. CHABNER

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Hey everyone and welcome to NFL Week 16 where I try to beat the spread every week, make a little money, or brag to our work besties that we simply pick winners cause our state doesn’t allow sports betting yet (fuck you California).  So take a look below…let me know in the comments section if I fucked this up or on any of my social media handles (note my Week 15 picks were 87.5% on the money). Let’s fucking gooooooooo.

 

| | @gawdbrudder

 

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I went 9-7 last week and clawed to within 15 games of .500 at 104-119-1 with three weeks to play. That ground is not impossible to make up, but it is going to take foresight, discipline, and some hefty road favorites covering this week. Just look at that Detroit line at Chicago. It’s over a touchdown even though the Lions were shredded on defense last week and nearly allowed a miracle comeback by Caleb Williams on Thanksgiving. So why are we backing Detroit? Because this season, laying the big number with Detroit has paid off. The Lions are 3-1 against the spread when being favored by seven or more, and I expect them to pound the struggling Bears.

I am also taking the Rams, Eagles, Vikings, and Buccaneers as road favorites. They probably won’t all work out, but maybe they will go 3-1 since all four are surging right now while playing inferior competition. I actually like the Giants pick this week since they were able to move the ball a little against Baltimore and Michael Penix Jr. is making his first start for Atlanta. Maybe a rookie mistake or two will help the Giants intercept the ball for the third time this season.

I might not even watch the NFL on Saturday because of the College Football Playoff and a decent college hoops slate, but I expect Kansas City and Pittsburgh to come through for me. The Chiefs have transformed into favorites with the news that Patrick Mahomes is practicing fully this week, so getting two and a half points makes this one the easiest pick on the board. For the Steelers, they failed me as underdogs in Philadelphia, but I’m rolling with them again since they own Lamar Jackson.

Back to Sunday, I am becoming the Carolina whisperer as I smartly jumped off the bandwagon last week when Sir Purr and company became favorites against Dallas. However, now the Cats are back to being dogs and facing a floundering Cardinals team at home. Sign me back up!

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Rams Plez. Per JP

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Bad news for the haters: None of my fantasy teams made the playoffs, so I have more attention to devote to picks! We are running out of time to make a comeback, but at least I don’t have to worry about how much FAAB money to drop on the waiver wire every week. What I do need to worry about is whether or not the 49ers are back. They burned my strategy of continuing to fade them with their destruction of the Bears, but I think they come back to Earth in a tough divisional game. I am going to Ram It for the first time in a while.

In the next three games, I have big home dogs. The Chiefs never cover, so Cleveland is an easy pick. Cincinnati’s cover in the Simpsons game was a total fluke and Lisa Simpson won’t bail them out this time. Tennessee was terrible against Jacksonville, but I’m sure Will Levis will bounce back now that I’m not relying on him to save my fantasy team. New Orleans is getting way too many points against a Washington team that hasn’t impressed lately.

That brings us to the return of Tommy DeVito to MetLife Stadium. I am actually happy to see him again because Drew Lock was beyond miserable last week, but that doesn’t mean the Giants have a snowball’s chance to beat Baltimore. I think the Ravens win by at least 20 as Derrick Henry attempts a single game rushing record.

The Giants will not be fun to watch, but Dallas at Carolina should be a pretty interesting game considering how bad the record are. The Panthers have been money against the spread as a dog, but I’m not feeling them as a favorite. I think the Cowboys win outright. The Jets are another team I don’t feel great about as a favorite, but I feel better about them than the Jaguars. Plus, Aaron Rodgers is coming off one of his best games a Jet.

Dolphins vs. Texans is close to a toss-up, but I’ll take Houston because of how consistently it runs the ball with Joe Mixon. I feel a lot better about Denver as a home favorite because of how well it has played lately with three straight wins by more than a touchdown. The Lions are still an auto pick because they never lose, and the Steelers get the nod in the underdog spot as usual.

I have to fade the Cardinals, as they have hit the skids with three straight losses. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has won three straight, but the Chargers are a big step up in competition and should handle the Buccaneers at home. I am going to feel like a fool if I lose against the Seahawks again, but the Packers are playing too well, so we’ll try fading Seattle one more time.

Both home teams look good in the Monday night slate. Sam Darnold has played some of the best football of his career lately for Minnesota, and the Falcons have not played well enough lately for me to trust them against my plucky Raiders.

 

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Dallas can’t leave well enough alone at home, plays with fire on a blocked punt, and suffers its latest Leon Lett moment. All we needed to make this scene complete was a scampering Don Bebe. Score a much needed win for Mr. Blonde ambition Dallas and its red-headed stepchild.

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Law Offices of Brandon S. Chabner

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Brandon’s Posts

ChabDog’s Super-appreciation and Super-ass awards for Week 11 (or this week’s results, from bottom to top) :

ChabDog’s Super-appreciation and Super-ass awards for Week 11 (or this week’s results, from bottom to top) :
1) Super-appreciation — McConkey (for his megatron catch) and Dobbins (for his jumping jack vault into the end zone} to cinch the Chargers’ winning drive), Boswell (who still knows how to kick well), Allen (who took the Buffalo by the horns) and finally drove the stake into Chief Dracula’s heart (thank you god!), the entire New Orleans offense (which finally came out of that ridiculous coma), and Nix (who didn’t wallow but told his teammates to follow)
2) Super-ass — Jumpy Justin and a very fearful McPherson (the latest well-adjusted kickers to just go psycho), ChabDog (for actually believing that the Slackers who do more than Bearly win), the guy coaching the Ti-tans (for still loving “leave those points on the table Levis”, and ChabDog (worst of all — for actually believing the Jets would not snatch defeat from the jaws of victory)

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Tired of getting hosed by the spread….ChabDog focuses his Ace Rothstein bi-focals on the Sports Rock Pick’m pool:

Big No. 2 ChabDog picks himself up from the dead, after enduring another utterly pointless beating from the Week 10 spread, and comes through with his totally random picks for the more rational Sports Rock pick ’em pool for Week 11. Just hope I don’t step in No. 2 in the process.
1) TNF- COMMANDERS @ EAGLES– The Commanders have lost some command and control. GOING EAGLES, AND IT’S TOTALLY LEGAL!
SUN NOV. 17:
2) AM- RAVENS @ STEELERS — So sorry to burst the bubble of all my Maryland friends (I think I still have a few) BUT THE STEELERS TOTALLY OWN THE DEPRAVED RAVENS…. GOING ALL IN FOR THE STEELERS!
3) AM – PACKERS @ BEARS — If the Bears can’t hanlde the Patiots, they certain can’t handle the PACKERS… going to stay with my instincts and staying with GREEN BAY
4) AM- COLTS @ JETS — Jets are in total yo yo mode… up one week and down another… this is an up week… and Joe Flacco is just killing time, not to mention Indy’s hopes and dreams… GOING WITH THE JETS BABY!!!!
5) PM- FALCONS @ BRONCOS — Broncos will certainly come into this game sleepless and grouchy but a bad attidue only gets you so far…. however, the Falcones never win big games on the road… and yet I think Koo Koo with the magic shoe makes another appearance… GOING WITH FALCONES!!!
6) PM- CHIEFS @ BILLS — Please for the love of freaking god, dear God, I implore you to send fire and brimstone raining down on the infernal Chiefs and give Buffalo this victory they so dearly deserve. Fact is the Bills are a better team… except for their wrestling coach…. omg I just cannot bring myself to pick the Chiefs. GOING BILLS OR i’M GONNA SHAVE MY HEAD AND LEAVE THE FREAKING COUNTRY LMAO…
7) SNF- BENGALS @ CHARGERS
MON NOV. 18: — Mack is going to have a Big Mac attack chomping down on Mr. Blonde Ambition…. this has Charger 3 piont victory written all over it
😎 MNF- TEXANS @ COWBOYS — I still don’t think the Texans are that good… but as for the Cowboys, they’ve got nothing going on but a very mushy Cooper Rush slush fund… time for another telethon Jerry! GOING WITH THE TEXANS… and please CJ get that eye of the tiger back…. lately you’ve been resembling a llama.

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Well Read’s Posts

Abe’s Posts

Week 7: Abe’s Scrumdidilyumptious NFL Picks (ATS)

WALKING INTO WEEK 7 HAVING GOTTEN TEN PICKS RIGHT AGAINST THE SPREAD LAST WEEK!  Ok, CAPS may have been too much but anytime you can get double-digit wins against the spread I think there’s nothing wrong with celebrating that! So lets look at my current picks record….please see Exibit a:

Exibit a.

WEEK 1: 10/16 (62.5%) WEEK 2: 8/15 + 1 Push (53.3%)  WEEK 3: 8/16 (50%) WEEK 4:  9/16 (56%) WEEK 5: 7/14 (50%)  WEEK 6: 10/14 (71%)  SEASON RECORD (ATS): 52/91 + 1 Push (57%)

OK, now that we’re all caught up and you’re still willing to read my scumbag picks, lets fucking go NFL Week 7 (thank you for knowing that you still have a better shot with my picks below than LITERALLY flipping a quarter)!

THURSDAY NIGHTS GAME – TOOK THE CHALK

Need to explain that I was super slammed at work and simply didn’t make my pick before kickoff.  However, here at Chabdog Sports, if you don’t make a pick, you take the “chalk” (favored to win).  Somehow, our official “chalk” was the New Orlean Saints….WHY???…I STILL DONT KNOW! Feel free to entertain yourself with my Twitter/X exchange with our producer, Well Read.

|  | @gawdbrudder

 

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Week 6: Abe’s Scrumdidilyumptious NFL Picks (ATS)

Before I get into all the excitement of Week 6, let’s talk about Week 5.  So yeah, like my gawdbrudder Frank Fleming from Barstool Sports, I was locked out of chabdog.com as technology told me to go fuck myself last week.  However, if you’re following me on social media, you probably came across my Week 5 picks in the form of a tweet.  So here they are for transparency as we take great pride in our weekly/season records here at Chabdog Sports.

Therefore, with my Week 5 picks in, here are my current weekly/season stats before you decide if I’m worth reading any further down the page:

WEEK 1: 10/16 (62.5%) WEEK 2: 8/15 + 1 Push (53.3%)  WEEK 3: 8/16 (50%) WEEK 4:  9/16 (56%) WEEK 5: 7/14 (50%)  SEASON RECORD (ATS): 42/77 + 1 Push (54%)

OK, now that we’re all caught up and you’re still willing to read some rando’s internet scumbag picks, lets fucking go NFL Week 6 (thank you for knowing that you still have a better shot with my picks below than LITERALLY flipping a quarter)!

For Thursday’s Night Game, I was slammed at work and took the chalk which was 100% the right call.

|  | @gawdbrudder

 

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Dorothy’s Posts

Aaron’s Posts

Purdue vs. Illinois will be an epic Big Ten clash tonight, but it’s only on Peacock

The Peacock strikes again! We heard outrage from across the sports universe when the NFL made its Dolphins vs. Chiefs Playoff game exclusively available on NBC’s streaming service. Now, something similar is happening in Big Ten Basketball, and the conference should be embarrassed that the top game on its regular season schedule won’t be in front of as many viewers as possible. Before the Big Ten’s new media rights deal that went into affect this fall, Purdue vs. Illinois on Tuesday night would be on ESPN where every fan knows how to find it, and it would have been promoted all day long on ESPN’s many programs. The new deal might work for football because the Big Ten doesn’t need ESPN when it has games on three major networks all day, but with basketball NBC has made Peacock part of the deal, and that is a nightmare for ratings.

The worst part is that we are over a month away from WrestleMania, so a fan would need to subscribe for two months in order to get Purdue vs. Illinois as well as the Showcase of the Immortals. At least with the NFL sham, the Royal Rumble was included in the price of the football game. As a wrestling and Big Ten fanatic, I’ve been watching on Peacock all season, but for fans who are just getting into college basketball now, the stream exclusive is going to be a major turnoff. They’ll likely just stick with ESPN for Alabama vs. Florida and Kansas State vs. Kansas.

Those who do invest in Peacock should get a great game. Purdue and Illinois met earlier in the season on January 5, and the Boilermakers led comfortably for much of the game on the way to a 83-78 win. However, not only was that game at Mackey Arena where Purdue never loses, but Illinois’ star guard Terrence Shannon Jr. was suspended due to sexual assault allegations. The Illini held Zach Edey to 10 points, but they were burned by Trey Kaufman-Renn, who erupted for 23 points on 8-for-12 shooting. It will be interesting to see if Illinois head coach Brad Underwood employs a similar strategy tonight since Kaufman-Renn hasn’t approached that kind of scoring output in the last two months and hasn’t even scored 10 points in his last six games.

With the game shifting to Champaign’s State Farm Center and Shannon playing some of his best basketball, the Illini are favored by two and a half. It will be the first time Purdue is an underdog in Big Ten play this season and the first time it is an underdog at all since its clash with Arizona back in December. Both teams are riding three-game winning streaks, but Illinois’ schedule has been a little tougher lately with a game at Wisconsin and another against a hot Iowa team at home. Plus, the Illini have scored at least 85 points in their last six games. With Shannon finding his three-point shot and Marcus Domask being a master technician in the paint, this is a team that can come at you from everywhere, and I didn’t even mention Coleman Hawkins’ range at center or the rebounding ability of Quincy Guerrier and Ty Rodgers.

In other words, Illinois won’t be the only defense with its hands full tonight. On the other end, Zach Edey has been unstoppable lately. In Purdue’s last game against Michigan State on Saturday night, Spartan big man Mady Sissoko accumulated four personal fouls in just six minutes. Michigan State threw a bunch of bodies at Edey, but he still scored 32 points on 9-for-15 field goal shooting and 14-for-20 free throw shooting. Edey is too big to keep him from getting into scoring range, but he can be forced into turnovers if he has to put the ball on the floor. Turning a few Edey turnovers into fast-break scoring opportunities will be key for Illinois tonight. Scoring in transition helped the Illini put away Wisconsin on Saturday when Justin Harmon blocked Chucky Hepburn’s shot in the paint in the final two minutes. That led to a fast break and a layup for Shannon to give Illinois a 10-point lead.

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Ohio State did it again and Iowa’s missed opportunity

I really thought Ohio State was done with the upsets after it stunned Purdue two weekends ago in interim head coach Jake Diebler’s debut, but on Sunday, the Buckeyes pulled off yet another shocker. They went into East Lansing as 10-point underdogs and beat Michigan State 60-57 with the margin of victory coming on a last-second three-point heave by Dale Bonner. Just moments earlier, Tyson Walker had a chance to put Michigan State ahead with a fair of free throws, but he somehow wedged his first attempt in between the backboard and the rim. Walker had to settle for a tie with his second free throw, but Bonner’s clutch bomb ensured that it didn’t matter.

Ohio State is now 2-1 since Chris Holtmann was fired, and I feel a little bad for him even though he is technically on a paid vacation right now. These kinds of wins are what Ohio State was building towards with its young lineup, and against Michigan State, it was even younger than usually due to Jamison Battle missing the game with an ankle injury. Freshman Scotty Middleton replaced Battle to give Ohio State all underclassman in the starting five. The Buckeyes certainly missed Battle’s three-point prowess, as they went 3-for-17 from beyond the arc in the low-scoring affair, but the Spartans had their own shooting issues and shot just 4-for-16 from that range, including 1-for-9 from Tyson Walker and Jaden Akins.

Still, Michigan State appeared to have the game under control with a 12-point lead and 11 minutes on the clock, but Devin Royal came off the bench for Ohio State and proved to be an unlikely hero alongside Felix Okpara. The pair of big men led the Buckeyes on the comeback trail and closed to within one point at 52-51 with six minutes left, setting the stage for the exciting conclusion. Royal, another freshman, showed off his post moves and mid-range game while scoring 14 points on 6-for-8 shooting in just 18 minutes. Okpara added 10 points and six rebounds, with four coming on offense.

No matter who is the head coach for Ohio State next year, the team has a bright future with all the young talent that has emerged this season. If the roster doesn’t fall apart, it should be a very desirable job since whoever gets it will be in line for massive improvement without having to do much. Michigan State, meanwhile, looked like it was a lock for the NCAA Tournament a week ago, but back-to-back home losses over teams with worse records have put the Spartans’ postseason status in doubt. It doesn’t help that their next game is on Saturday at Purdue.

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Penn State’s thrilling win in Rec Hall and Indiana gets cooked

We’ve been saying for years that Penn State Basketball would be a more impressive television product if the home arena wasn’t the Bryce Jordan Center. The giant arena is way too big for a program that strives to be in the middle of the Big Ten standings in a good year. When Penn State plays in the Palestra or at Rec Hall, it looks like a proper basketball program, and sometimes it even plays like one. Wednesday night was one of those nights with Illinois in town. However, for most of the night, it looked like a typical 2024 Penn State loss. The Lions got off to a hot start on offense, but then fizzled and struggled to keep pace with the talented Illini because of their failure to grab a rebound on defense. Illinois often doesn’t need second chances, especially with Terrence Shannon Jr. playing like he did, but it got 19 of them, with the Swiss Army Knife Ty Rodgers grabbing five offensive boards. That helped make up for 18 Illinois turnovers that Penn State needed just to keep the game respectable while Shannon was going off for a career-high 35 points on 10-for-18 shooting.

Another reason why Penn State only trailed by 10 points with two and a half minutes left was Nick Kern Jr. He has shown some upside with his athleticism this season, but again Illinois he got to the basket at will. At one point in the second half, Kern scored 13 straight Penn State points, and he finished with a season-high 22. Now that Kanye Clary is out of the picture, I’m hoping that Kern can stick around for one or two more seasons and develop into a star, but to do that he needs to expand his range past 10 feet from the basket.

Anyway, Zach Hicks hit a mid-range shot to cut the deficit to eight points, and then the Illinois collapse began. Shannon drove into the paint and kicked the ball to the corner to set up Luke Goode with a wide-open dagger three. With the way Goode shoots the ball, that should be a layup for him, but he missed, and Hicks answered with a triple for Penn State to cut the lead to five. However, Illinois was still in great shape after two free throws from Marcus Domask and a missed three by Ace Baldwin Jr. Now the Illini were up by seven points with less than a minute left. Shannon tried a runner in the paint, but it bounced out and Jameel Brown took advantage by crushing a three-point shot in transition. Brown’s next play was even bigger, though, because Penn State needed a turnover to make it a one-possession game. Brown came through by stripping Shannon of the ball, which led to an easy layup for Puff Johnson. All of a sudden, the Lions trailed by just two with 30 seconds left.

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Purdue upset by Ohio State and Penn State loses Kanye Clary

I almost feel bad for Purdue fans even though they have a tremendous basketball team that will probably make the Final Four. No matter what the Boilers do in the regular season, there is nothing they can do to change their reputation as a team that collapses in the big moment. The only way to do that is to win in the NCAA Tournament. Whenever Purdue slips up this season, the doubters and haters (Indiana fans) come out of the woodwork to say “this is what will happen in March.”

I have said since November when Purdue won the Maui Invitational that this team reminds me of the 2019 Virginia team that bounced back and won the national championship after losing to a 16 seed the year before. Maybe Purdue will fulfill that prophecy, or maybe it will hilariously disappoint its rabid fans once again. On Sunday in Columbus, Matt Painter’s team gave us a preview of March or a blip on the radar, depending on your perspective. Despite shooting 20-for-20 from the free throw line and dominating the offensive glass like they always do, the Boilers lost 73-69 to an Ohio State team that was playing its first game since head coach Chris Holtmann was fired.

It didn’t help that Purdue turned the ball over 14 times, most notably when Zed Key poked the ball away from Zach Edey with less than a minute to play and the Boilers needing two points to tie the score. Purdue ended up fouling Jamison Battle, who helped put the game away at the charity stripe.

Just moments before, Purdue rallied to overcome a seven-point deficit and tied the game 65-65 on Lance Jones’ clutch three-point jumper, but Battle answered with a 15-foot jumper to ensure that Ohio State would not fall behind. The Buckeyes were boosted by Battle’s 19 points on 6-for-8 shooting as well as 26 points from a bench effort led by Key and Dale Bonner. Purdue, meanwhile, got its usual great effort from Edey (22 points, 7-for-11 shooting, 13 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 blocks) but only four points from the bench. I still have no clue how Ethan Morton gets more than 10 minutes a game on team as talented as Purdue.

Ohio State interim head coach Jake Diebler made a great impression and he’ll have a case to keep the job full time with a few more wins down the stretch. I will feel very smart for talking about the potential of Ohio State’s young core if the team can upset Minnesota or Michigan State on the road.

Indiana blew a chance to join the bubble

Speaking of upsets, only one other Big Ten underdog won outright over the weekend. That was Northwestern defeating Indiana, but we can probably have a long argument over whether or not the Wildcats should have been considered the underdog in Bloomington. While they have been way more successful than Indiana this year and are projected to make the NCAA Tournament, Northwestern hasn’t impressed on the road. That’s why I saw this game as a great opportunity for Indiana to get a quality win and get into the bubble conversation. I should have known that the Hoosiers would waste it since they have shown so little heart and fight this season.

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Ohio State fires Chris Holtmann and Maryland wins a bubble battle

Wisconsin finally broke its four-game losing streak in very Wisconsin-like fashion on Tuesday night. It used solid defense and three-point shooting by Max Klesmit to close the first half on a 16-3 run that turned an 18-18 tie into a 34-21 advantage. Ohio State got within five points in the second half, but Chucky Hepburn answered with a three-point shot followed by a steal and a breakaway layup while the Buckeyes failed to score for seven straight minutes. When Bruce Thornton finally got his team back on the scoreboard with 1:36 to play, Hepburn responded with another triple to put the game away. Perhaps the most thrilling part of the game was Jamison Battle not scoring all game until he hit a three with 16 seconds left to cover the 9.5-point spread for Ohio State. Klesmit had a chance to expand the lead back to 10 points, but he missed the front end of a one-and-one and the Badgers settled for a 62-54 victory.

It wasn’t the most impressive win for Wisconsin since it came at home against Ohio State, but Greg Gard’s team will take what it can get after dropping games to Rutgers and Michigan on the road. The real excitement came on Wednesday when reports came out about Ohio State firing Chris Holtmann after six and a half seasons with the program. Holtmann made the NCAA Tournament four times (would have been five if not for the pandemic) in a row since taking over for Thad Matta in 2017. However, he never made the Sweet 16 and his highest seeded NCAA Tournament team was upset by Oral Roberts in the first round in 2021. 2023 was a disaster for Holtmann, as his team lost 14 of 15 games in the middle of conference play and finished 16-19 overall. It looked like everything would change this season, as Ohio State beat Alabama in November and improved to 12-2 when it defeated Rutgers on January 3. The Buckeyes have won just two games since, though, and athletic director Gene Smith has had enough of the losing.

I don’t blame Ohio State for expecting to make the NCAA Tournament every year. but I’m surprised Holtmann got fired when he has such a young and intriguing group of sophomores at the core of his team. Keeping a group of starters together for more than one season in today’s college basketball environment is rare, but I think Holtmann had something with Bruce Thornton, Roddy Gayle Jr., Felix Okpara, and Evan Mahaffey. They have not been winning much lately, but they are also playing in a league that’s full of fourth- and fifth-year players in the starting lineup. With the way they are all improving together as first-year starters, I wouldn’t be surprised if the group returned next season as juniors and finished in the top third of the Big Ten. With Holtmann gone, it’s more likely that the program will be reset under a new head coach who wants to bring in his own players.

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