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I really can’t stand Tyrese Haliburton. On Thursday night in Oklahoma City he came up with ANOTHER super clutch, last-second bucket to steal ANOTHER playoff game in which Indiana trailed in the final minute. This time, it happened to be Game 1 of the NBA Finals. I thought the Thunder were better than this, but they fell victim to Haliburton’s heroics, just like all the Eastern Conference teams before them. At least Oklahoma City only led by three points in the last minute of the fourth quarter before falling to the Pacers 111-110. In the three rounds prior, the Bucks, Cavaliers, and Knicks all blew games against Indiana in which they were lead by seven or more with less than 60 seconds to play.
Still, Oklahoma City led by 15 with less than 10 minutes to go, so this is still a big time collapse by a squad that had dominated the NBA all season and appeared ready to be coronated as champions. Some hot three-point shooting by Obi Toppin and Myles Turner helped Indiana get the deficit down to single digits, but NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander kept the Pacers at bay and pushed the lead back to nine points with three minutes left. However, consecutive three-point makes by Aaron Nesmith and Andrew “Nimrod” Nembhard made it a one-possession game at the two-minute mark. After Pascal Siakam scored by luckily rebounding an air ball chucked up by Nimrod, SGA had a chance to make it a three-point game with an open 15-footer, but he missed the jumper to set up Haliburton’s 20-foot winner over Cason Wallace.
New stage… same result.
ANOTHER game-winner for Tyrese Haliburton in his Finals debut 🤯🤯🤯pic.twitter.com/22QbhQNqyf
— NBA (@NBA) June 6, 2025
What really bothers me about Haliburton is that he thinks he’s proving the doubters wrong by hitting these clutch shots, but he’s really proving them right by not consistently performing like the hero he thinks he is. The man had 12 points before his last-second jumper in Game 1. “But he’s so unstoppable, he can pull up from anywhere!” Then maybe he should do so before his team falls into a big hole. Some more impulsive shots would have helped the Pacers avoid a few of their 24 turnovers.
I guess it’s cool that the Pacers are finding a way to win big without being a major market or tanking. That takes some serious coaching, management, and heart. Still, Indiana winning the Finals would be way more painful to take as a Knicks fan than if the Thunder come back and stomp them in five games. The Knicks could have and should have been in this spot if not for Haliburton’s jumper from Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals that bounces higher off the rim every time I imagine it. I think it went through the roof of Madison Square Garden and into outer space last time. If the Pacers win the NBA title, I’ll just think that the Knicks would have won if that ball had just fallen anywhere else but straight back down through the bucket.
The NBA’s ridiculous schedule means we have to wait until Sunday night for Game 2. The Pacers have gone up 2-0 in every series during this run, so it will be interesting to see if they can do it one more time. If OKC responds well, it might be a sign that this series can be different. While we are waiting for the NBA to return, the Edmonton Oilers have a chance to take a 2-0 lead over the Florida Panthers in the Stanley Cup Final on Friday night. As you might have heard, a Canadian club has not hoisted the Cup since 1993 and Edmonton is in Alberta, which is a province of Canada. The Panthers looked to be on their way to smashing Edmonton’s Stanley Cup dreams when Sam Bennett scored his second goal of the game to put his team up 3-1 early in the second period, but the Oilers answered a minute later to make it a one-goal game and found the equalizer off of Mattias Ekholm’s stick early in the third.
Edmonton controlled the action and had the best scoring chances throughout the third and deep into the overtime, but they were turned away by Sergei Bobrovsky until Leon Draisaitl buried a Connor McDavid pass into the net with 31 seconds to play. The game-winning goal sent Edmonton into a frenzy and brought McDavid one step closer to claiming the Cup for the first time in his career. We’ll find out tonight if the Oilers can build on the momentum or if the reigning champs will strike back!
You have to give me a lot of credit for continuing to pay attention to the Mets on the day that the Nintendo Switch 2 launches. We got the first new Nintendo console in eight years and the first new Mario Kart game in 11 years, and they were both released on the same day! It is a pretty exciting time to be a Nintendo fan, but the Mets are pretty exciting as well, especially when Pete Alonso is smashing the ball out of the park like he was on Wednesday night. His two-run home run in the first inning put the Mets ahead 3-0, and after Griffin Canning finished up one of his best starts of the season, Polar Bear put the game away with a three-run blast in the eighth. The Mets ended up with a dominant 6-1 win over the defending World Series champs thanks to Alonso’s powerful offense and Canning’s masterful six innings.
The victory clinched the season series for the Mets over the Dodgers, and that could come into play down the line since these teams are two of the National League’s top World Series contenders. The Mets could have done one better by winning on Thursday to take three of four in Los Angeles, but they decided to kill the good vibes instead. New York jumped out to a 4-0 lead thanks to solo shots off of Landon Knack by Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, and Starling Marte, but the Dodgers answered back with three runs in the bottom of the third. Right there it felt like the Mets would lose this game, but as usual they hooked us back in to believing in a possible victory. David Peterson settled down and ended up lasting seven innings without giving up another run. The former first-round draft pick is finally pitching a lot of innings this season and appears to be on his way to a career year. The amount of pleasant surprises on this New York pitching staff is really something.
Anyway, the Mets had several chances to add to their lead while Peterson was mowing down Dodgers, but they failed all of them until Alonso came up with a two-out RBI single in the eighth to make the score 5-3. Just when it looked like the Mets had found separation, though, Reed Garrett showed up with some not-so-great news. He threw six straight balls to Mookie Betts and Will Smith, and the next pitch was ripped into left field by Smith for an RBI double. After Smith reached third on Teoscar Hernandez’s fly out, Andy Pages hit a ground ball that gave the Mets a golden opportunity to throw Smith out at home. Smith even made it easy on the Mets by stopping between third and home even though it was too late to head back. However, instead of getting an easy out, Brett Baty double clutched and spiked the throw to the plate, allowing Smith to sneak in with the tying run. All that was left was for Michael Conforto to break an 0-for-30 RISP slump and drive in the go-ahead run.
Michael for the lead! pic.twitter.com/fzobYeUkGl
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) June 5, 2025
Unbelievable. The Mets blew late leads in both of their losses at Chavez Ravine, but at least Juan Soto is happily flipping water bottles in the dugout. Of course he was the only one in the top four of the Mets’ lineup that didn’t have a hit today. Maybe Soto is so happy because he remembered that he doesn’t have to do anything to collect money.
The Mets now head to Colorado to take on the Rockies, who are suddenly red hot from sweeping the Marlins. I’ll be pleasantly surprised if the Mets can pull off another sweep like they did last weekend.
The Mets love to tease and Wednesday night was no exception. They could have just gone down quietly after Tylor Megill allowed four runs in the bottom of the first inning, with the last two coming home on a Max Muncy monster bomb to right field. Instead, Megill not only saved the bullpen from disaster by lasting six innings, but he kept the Mets alive for the win by keeping Los Angeles off the scoreboard for the remainder of his time on the mound.
The Mets rallied while Megill settled in. Juan Soto took Clayton Kershaw deep in the third with a two-run shot that drew the Mets to within a run. In the fifth, Pete Alonso tied the game by lacing a two-out RBI double to center field and Brandon Nimmo followed up by beating Kershaw to first base for an RBI infield single that gave New York the lead.
Now that we had our hopes up that the Mets had a chance to take two straight from the Dodgers, it was time for the offense to go to bed while the bullpen imploded. However, the bullpen took its time with the implosion part. Brandon Waddell followed up Megill’s effort with a scoreless seventh before Reed Garrett took us on a ride in the eighth. The Dodgers were poised to take the lead when Shohei Ohtani led off with a walk, Mookie Betts followed up with a single, and both runners advanced on a passed ball by Francisco Alvarez. But as he has to often this season, Garrett came through with some GREAT NEWS and struck out Freddie Freeman before Teoscar Hernandez hit a ground ball to third that Ronnie Mauricio used to cut down Ohtani at the plate. All it took after that was a strikeout of Will Smith to complete Garrett’s escape.
It would have been cool for the Mets to take advantage of Garrett’s magic act and add on a run or two, but Luis Torrens’ bid for a two-out RBI double in the ninth was run down by Andy Pages in center field. Now it was up to Huascar Brazoban to save the game with Edwin Diaz unavailable.
I thought Brazoban would unavailable as well since he threw over 30 pitches the night before, but Carlos Mendoza works in mysterious ways. Brazoban would reward his manager’s faith by striking out the side… but only after Muncy led off the frame with his second home run of the night to tie the game 5-5.
FREDDIE! FREDDIE! FREDDIE! pic.twitter.com/nVC0ZFNbTr
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) June 4, 2025
The Mets went down feebly against Tanner Scott in the 10th without even advancing the ghost runner to third base. That left Jose Butto to deal with the top of the order with the winning run already in scoring position. Freeman made up for his failure in the eighth by launching a fly ball deep to left field. If the usually reliable Brandon Nimmo caught that ball we might have had a happier ending, but he turned and twisted and lost the ball so badly in the night that he was surprised when it landed a foot away from him on the warning track. Game over.
It would be great if tonight’s game against the Dodgers only went nine innings or maybe ended before 1:00 AM. We’ve got some quality entertainment in the earlier evening with the Stanley Cup Final beginning and the Women’s College World Series starting its championship series that I thought started last night. With Matthew Tkachuk and Connor McDavid playing for the Cup, there could be some rivalry juice left over from the 4 Nations Face-Off that captivated North America for a minute this winter. I know I’m rooting for Canada’s Cup drought to continue after the DISRESPECT its fans showed the good ole USA in February.
The Mets picked up one of their biggest wins of the season on Monday night when they beat the Dodgers 4-3 in the opener of a four-game series at Chavez Ravine. Francisco Lindor set the pace with his sixth leadoff home run of the year and later came up big with a game-winning RBI single in the 10th, but the real star of the night was Paul Blackburn. In his first start for the Mets since last August, the 2024 Trade Deadline acquisition shut down the Dodgers for five innings while striking out Shohei Ohtani twice and allowing just one runner to reach scoring position. Blackburn certainly could have gone deeper into the game since he only threw 77 pitches compared to more than 80 in his last minor league rehab start, but Carlos Mendoza once again decided to treat his players like babies, and it almost cost the Mets.
We knew the bullpen was thin because Chris Devenski was sent to the minors to make room for Blackburn while both Garrett Reed and Edwin Diaz had worked in two of the three games against Colorado. That made Mendoza’s decision to pull Blackburn early all the more puzzling. It looked like the Mets were headed for a meltdown when Huascar Brazoban walked both Max Muncy and Michael Conforto to load the bases in the sixth, but he came up with a huge strikeout of Tommy Edman to escape the jam. Max Kranick allowed a monster home run to Ohtani an inning later, but fortunately it came with two outs and the bases empty, allowing the Mets to enter the ninth with a 2-1 edge.
Nimmo adds on! 🙌@You_Found_Nimmo | #LGM pic.twitter.com/QAVPUpIMya
— New York Mets (@Mets) June 3, 2025
The lead could have been bigger, but the Mets’ rally in the fifth inning yielded only one run despite Brandon Nimmo hitting a two-out double with both Jeff McNeil and Francisco Alvarez on base. Nimmo’s blast to the gap bounced over the wall for a ground-rule double, allowing just one run to score when a garden-variety double would have surely scored both runners. Not only that, but one batter earlier Lindor appeared to have an extra-base hit to the opposite field, only to have Conforto run it down in left field.
Those two plays combined to make it seem very unlucky that the Mets had only two runs in the ninth, and the Dodgers took advantage when Edman hit a leadoff single off of Diaz. I have to give credit to Mendoza for breaking the “in case of emergency” glass on Diaz even though he usually doesn’t use a reliever in three out of four games. Unfortunately, Mendoza probably won’t do it again because Edman stole second base and scored on an Ohtani sac fly to blow the save. Diaz might have been dominant lately, but his inability to control the run game continues to be a major problem that will haunt the Mets if they make it to the Postseason.
It won’t haunt the Mets today, though. New York showed great resilience in the 10th when Alvarez led off with an opposite-field double that scored the ghost runner and set Alvarez himself up to score on Lindor’s clutch single. The bottom of the frame got ugly with Jose Castillo trying to pick up his first career save. He immediately walked Freddie Freeman to set the stage for heartbreak, but Castillo buckled down and struck out Max Muncy following a single by Andy Pages. Dave Roberts then lifted Conforto for the right-handed Will Smith, so Mendoza countered with Jose Butto out of the pen, and he responded by retiring both Smith and Edman to close out the game.
Elsewhere in baseball, the Rockies finally got their 10th win of the season thanks to two home run by catcher Hunter Goodman in Miami. In Boston, the Angels defeated the Red Sox 7-6 on the strength of three first-inning home runs, including one by Mike Trout that traveled more than 450 feet. No visiting team at Fenway Park had ever hit three home runs in the top of the first, which is pretty amazing considering how long Fenway has been around. Out west, the Padres beat the Giants 1-0 despite eight shutout innings from Logan Webb. The winning run was driven in on a sac fly from none other than our old friend Candelita in the top of the 10th.
The college ball continued to be wild with Murray State upsetting Ole Miss to head to its first ever super regional. The Racers led 12-3 in the middle of the seventh, but Ole Miss stormed back with five runs in the bottom of the inning and three more in the eighth to make it a one-run game in the ninth. It looked like Murray State was destined to let the opportunity slip away, but Graham Kelham set the Rebels down in order to end the game. Little Rock appeared headed for a similar upset win, but it failed to hold onto its early 5-1 lead over LSU. The Tigers locked in and only allowed one more run for the rest of the game while scoring in each of the final four innings to vanquish Cinderella.
The super regionals don’t start until Friday, but we do have the championship series of the Women’s College World Series starting tonight with Texas Tech taking on Texas. It has been fun to watch Red Raiders pitcher NiJaree Canady dominate the competition and take Tech farther than anyone thought they would go.
Before the 2025 MLB season started and Mets fans were blessed by the surprising success of their pitching staff, the strength of the team was supposed to be the top of the order. Juan Soto was billed as a top-three hitter in the game, Francisco Lindor was coming off his best campaign as a Met, and Pete Alonso had just rejoined New York following his iconic season-saving home run in Milwaukee. Overall, the three stars have combined for great production, but they haven’t all clicked at the same time very often. Soto went through a super slump in the middle of May and Alonso’s production slipped with a big home run drought after he started the season on fire.
On Sunday, though, all three guys hits home runs in the same game for the first time in 2025. It was a good thing, too, because no one else on offense did much of anything. Colorado starter Carson Palmquist appeared on pace for a stellar performance before walking Starling Marte to lead off the fourth inning. He then hit Soto with a pitch and Alonso took advantage to a massive oppo taco to give New York a 3-1 lead. You have to give the horrible Rockies some credit, though. They might be on pace for a historically inept season, but they showed some fight in the fifth after Alonso ruined Palmquist’s day. Tyler Freeman hasn’t hit for much of anything in his big league career, but he took advantage of Clay Holmes hitting Keston Hiura with a pitch and slammed a breaking ball over the right-center field wall for a game-tying home run.
Oppo shot for the Polar Bear! 🐻❄️ pic.twitter.com/yXI8tfknfI
— New York Mets (@Mets) June 1, 2025
Suddenly it seemed like the Mets might blow a crucial game to Colorado at home, but Lindor clutch gene returned at the right time and he answered Freeman’s blast with a solo shot in the bottom of the frame. Holmes then settled down with six straight outs before Reed Garrett and Edwin Diaz locked down the win for the Mets while Juan Soto added his own solo shot to create some separation. The Mets won 5-3 to complete the sweep and head into Los Angeles with some momentum. However, momentum is only as good as the next day’s starting pitcher, and that one is a big unknown for the Mets since Paul Blackburn will be making his 2025 debut. He has missed the first two months of the season with right knee inflammation, but he pitched decently last year between being acquired at the trade deadline and hitting the injured list with a right hand contusion.
Hopefully the top of the order will keep hitting and give Blackburn some support. The Dodgers will be starting Dustin May, and he’s allowed a home run in each of his last five starts after allowing just one home run in five April starts. The Mets could use some length out of Blackburn since Garrett and Diaz have both been used in two of the last three days. Carlos Mendoza won’t use a reliever in three out of four days because he believes all pitchers are babies, so it could be up to Huascar Brazoban and Ryne Stanek to lead the relief effort tonight. The good news is that Garrett and Diaz are forming a solid tandem at the back of the bullpen that will serve the Mets well if they can continue pitching as efficiently as they have been.
Reed. 😤 pic.twitter.com/KRbXu2dFu1
— New York Mets (@Mets) June 1, 2025
Before the National League clash, though, there is plenty of exciting baseball on the slate. Not only will the Padres and Giants be facing off in an important division and Wild Card battle, but there are six super regional bids on the line in college baseball. It all starts this afternoon with North Carolina trying to win its rubber game against Oklahoma. However, action will really heat up at night with super Cinderella teams Murray State and Little Rock trying to get by SEC powerhouses Ole Miss and LSU. You don’t have to know much about college ball to realize that the Racers or Trojans reaching a super regional would be a tremendous story and also a total nightmare for either of the favorites whose fan bases are looking forward to slurping down massive amounts of Jell-O shots in Omaha later this month. Think of all the Jell-O lives that will be saved if Little Rock upsets the Tigers tonight. There is a lot at stake.
Imagine if there was another sport for which we could recreate the magic of March Madness. That sport is already out there, but it is played in the spring and uses a ball that is not as bouncy. It’s college baseball, baby! And the only thing holding it back from captivating America is millions of fans filling out brackets while acting like they know more ball than they actually do. Why don’t we have college baseball brackets? ESPN has the right for the whole tournament including the College World Series, but it won’t offer a bracket on its website that we can print out and gamble on. This is a company that offers women’s fantasy basketball for crying out loud!
Maybe in years past you could say that the NCAA Baseball Tournament was too predictable to be an entertaining gambling product, but that is not the case this year. While upsets were hard to come by during March Madness, baseball has been a different story with Vanderbilt failing to advance to the super regionals as the overall number one seed. The Commodores didn’t even reach their regional final played on their home field because they lost to Louisville 3-2 on Saturday and then to Wright State of the Horizon League 5-4 on Sunday. Wright State’s Cinderella run might be ending before the super regionals as the Raiders trail Louisville right now, but they are not the only plucky underdog that is making this tournament very exciting.
Just look at UTSA beating Texas for the second time in two days on Sunday to send the overall number two seed home early. After clobbering Kansas State 10-2 in its opening game, UTSA rallied from a 6-1 deficit to stun the Longhorns on Saturday and clinch a spot in the regional final. Texas bounced back by eliminating Kansas State on Sunday and earned a rematch with the Roadrunners, but this time UTSA jumped out to a 7-0 lead and held on for a 7-4 victory.
It’s already very exciting that Vanderbilt and Texas were upset in the regionals, but think about how much cooler it would be if you could laugh at someone who picked one of those teams to win the championship. That’s why we need college baseball brackets! I need to feel like my life is ruined while watching those sad players walk off the field for a final time with their College World Series dreams unrealized.
Murray State was another great Cinderella story, as it won its first two games of the tournament as the fourth seed in the Oxford Region. However, the host Ole Miss is getting some revenge right now, and that could force a third and decisive game between the Rebels and Racers on Monday. Little Rock is another team to watch, as it came in with one of the worst records in the field at 26-33. The Trojans seemed destined for an early exit after being shut out by LSU 7-0 in the opener, but since then they sent Rhode Island home with a 22-10 win and bounced Dallas Baptist with an 8-6 victory. Currently, Little Rock is leading LSU 6-4 in the 6th inning. If the Trojans hold on, they have a rematch with LSU on Monday with a trip to the super regionals on the line. It’s hard enough for a powerhouse program to make supers after losing its opener in the regional, but for Little Rock? That would take a miracle.
With five regional hosts already eliminated and the chance to lose more on Monday, you can’t say that the NCAA Baseball Tournament has been too predictable. Instead, it’s been a wild ride that more casual fans need to get involved in. The emotions are too high, the action is too hot, and the bats make too sweet of a sound for college baseball to not be more popular. We just need someone to push a bracket on the masses since ESPN has started to hate money.
Much like Steph Curry, The Joker always is a threat to get that last laugh, and OKc found that out the hard way tonight. At times tonight, he looked off, distracted and a bit out of sorts. The Thunder induced their share of turnovers, frustration fouls and scowls, but even as he played the tired villain you could sense the amazing determination, perserverance and fierce fortitude. He was the coach, the superstar on the court and the engine that would not let the Nuggets knuckle under. And in the end, spindly Chet couldn’t get those last two charity stripe offerings to drop, followed by Commissioner Gordon’s definitive three, and it was a back breaker of a road win for Denver.
Denver knows it can win this… but I’m not sure the same thing can be said about the #1 seeds.












Let the Final Four Festivities commence! Time to eat, or be eaten… and beaten. Save some time for ChabDog Sports Talk’s “Save the Blind Tigers” Show. Is Auburn headed for some unfortunate chomp and circumstance against the Gators? Will high and mighty Duke and its Flagg-bearer famously high flying get taken out by Samson’s sadistic wrecking crew and their terrible defensive tool box, incluidng a big blow torch and more than a few defensive pliers.
When we’re done with basketball, it’s time to lay out the welcome mat for MLB, where the Dodgers rule with an iron hand, its all hands on deck for the Yankees and their magic bat, and the Braves need a lot more than a helping hand.
And then there’s our killer Kilmer clips… love steet, Dodge City Doc…and real geniuses in college… plus Billy and the Over-the-hill-gang and John Malkovich, burying a hatchet in Burn After Reading.
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Pool Update After Day 3:
Pool Update as we are on the cusp of the 16 Candles round…
Update about the state of the ChabDog Pool (on the cusp of the 16 Candles round):
–Aaron’s glory has proven to be a wee bit fleeting, as he must now share top honors with 2 others, including Well-read and HOV (High Occuplancy?). High falutent Harrison (hot air) Montague is in third, 10 points back.
— Meanwhilte ChabDog lurks at just 30 points back, tied with the master of the six pack, Blixx
— Abe is in 7th, mortally wounded as Iowa State bit the proverbial big one.
— Behind him, hope abounds as everyone else’s winner remains alive.
Everyone in this pool has done a great job (even you Abe!) and deserve a Pat Kinght (or is it a Pat Summit?) on the back for a job well-done.
Well Read’s Posts
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Week 13: Abe’s Scrumdidilyumptious Turkey Picks (ATS)
Happy Thanksgiving to all of you! I am currently writing this from a cruise ship currently approaching Dominica in the West Indies. An amazing way to spend Thanksgiving away from the stress of absolutely everything. I’m sure my entire family hates me right now for being here and not them. I have a port excursion today to do a million awesome things but we do have good great TV here on the ship and hope to catch a few games. With that…LFG.
TURKEY DAY
LIONS -10.5 – Sounds like a huge spread until the Lions beat the Bears by at least 2 touchdowns.
COWBOYS -3.5 – Honestly both teams should lose here.
PACKERS -3.5 – Nothing screams Greenbay like 25 degrees and some cheese! I’m from LA…so fuck that!
FRIDAY
CHIEFS -13.5 – The Raiders are simply fucked. Does anyone even know who their QB is for this game since Gardner Minshew is out for the rest of the season???? Yes, it’s Aidan O’Connell who is coming back from a broken thumb! GO HIDE IN A CASINO VEGAS CAUSE IT IS GOING TO BE A CATASTROPHE!
SUNDAY
CHARGERS -1.5
STEELERS +2.5
VIKINGS -3.5
PATRIOTS +2.5
SEAHAWKS -1.5
COMMANDERS -5.5
TEXANS -5.5
RAMS -2.5
BUCCANEERS -6.5
EAGLES +2.5
BILLS -6.5
MONDAY
BROWNS +5.5
| | @gawdbrudder
Week 12: Abe’s Scrumdidilyumptious NFL Picks (ATS)
Hey everyone & welcome back to my kick-ass blog where I make 58% accurate picks Against The Spread (ATS) for free while proving that I’m a better choice than literally flipping a quarter (also tied for first amongst everyone at ChabDog Sports Talk)! Below is my SZN breakdown:
WEEK 1: 10/16 (62.5%) WEEK 2: 8/15 + 1 Push (53.3%) WEEK 3: 8/16 (50%) WEEK 4: 9/16 (56%) WEEK 5: 7/14 (50%) WEEK 6: 10/14 (71%) WEEK 7: 9/15 (60%) WEEK 8: 10/16 (63%) WEEK 9: 9/15 (60%) WEEK 10: 7/14 (50%) WEEK 11: 9/14 SEASON RECORD (ATS): 96/165 + 1 Push (58%)
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:
I texted our producer and told him I was “taking the chalk” (favored team) and going with the Steelers (-3.5) against the Browns. Of course, Mother Nature had to dump an ass-ton of snow and prove to everyone that snow + using multiple QBs was the Steelers’ kryptonite. Proof once again…that football isn’t always predictable no matter how favored you think a team is. The good news is that it only happens to me 42% of the time! With that being said, let’s take a look at the rest of my Week 12 picks for your entertainment.
| | @gawdbrudder
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Aaron’s Week 16 NFL Picks
I went 9-7 last week and clawed to within 15 games of .500 at 104-119-1 with three weeks to play. That ground is not impossible to make up, but it is going to take foresight, discipline, and some hefty road favorites covering this week. Just look at that Detroit line at Chicago. It’s over a touchdown even though the Lions were shredded on defense last week and nearly allowed a miracle comeback by Caleb Williams on Thanksgiving. So why are we backing Detroit? Because this season, laying the big number with Detroit has paid off. The Lions are 3-1 against the spread when being favored by seven or more, and I expect them to pound the struggling Bears.
I am also taking the Rams, Eagles, Vikings, and Buccaneers as road favorites. They probably won’t all work out, but maybe they will go 3-1 since all four are surging right now while playing inferior competition. I actually like the Giants pick this week since they were able to move the ball a little against Baltimore and Michael Penix Jr. is making his first start for Atlanta. Maybe a rookie mistake or two will help the Giants intercept the ball for the third time this season.
I might not even watch the NFL on Saturday because of the College Football Playoff and a decent college hoops slate, but I expect Kansas City and Pittsburgh to come through for me. The Chiefs have transformed into favorites with the news that Patrick Mahomes is practicing fully this week, so getting two and a half points makes this one the easiest pick on the board. For the Steelers, they failed me as underdogs in Philadelphia, but I’m rolling with them again since they own Lamar Jackson.
Back to Sunday, I am becoming the Carolina whisperer as I smartly jumped off the bandwagon last week when Sir Purr and company became favorites against Dallas. However, now the Cats are back to being dogs and facing a floundering Cardinals team at home. Sign me back up!
Aaron’s Week 15 NFL Picks
Bad news for the haters: None of my fantasy teams made the playoffs, so I have more attention to devote to picks! We are running out of time to make a comeback, but at least I don’t have to worry about how much FAAB money to drop on the waiver wire every week. What I do need to worry about is whether or not the 49ers are back. They burned my strategy of continuing to fade them with their destruction of the Bears, but I think they come back to Earth in a tough divisional game. I am going to Ram It for the first time in a while.
In the next three games, I have big home dogs. The Chiefs never cover, so Cleveland is an easy pick. Cincinnati’s cover in the Simpsons game was a total fluke and Lisa Simpson won’t bail them out this time. Tennessee was terrible against Jacksonville, but I’m sure Will Levis will bounce back now that I’m not relying on him to save my fantasy team. New Orleans is getting way too many points against a Washington team that hasn’t impressed lately.
That brings us to the return of Tommy DeVito to MetLife Stadium. I am actually happy to see him again because Drew Lock was beyond miserable last week, but that doesn’t mean the Giants have a snowball’s chance to beat Baltimore. I think the Ravens win by at least 20 as Derrick Henry attempts a single game rushing record.
The Giants will not be fun to watch, but Dallas at Carolina should be a pretty interesting game considering how bad the record are. The Panthers have been money against the spread as a dog, but I’m not feeling them as a favorite. I think the Cowboys win outright. The Jets are another team I don’t feel great about as a favorite, but I feel better about them than the Jaguars. Plus, Aaron Rodgers is coming off one of his best games a Jet.
Dolphins vs. Texans is close to a toss-up, but I’ll take Houston because of how consistently it runs the ball with Joe Mixon. I feel a lot better about Denver as a home favorite because of how well it has played lately with three straight wins by more than a touchdown. The Lions are still an auto pick because they never lose, and the Steelers get the nod in the underdog spot as usual.
I have to fade the Cardinals, as they have hit the skids with three straight losses. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has won three straight, but the Chargers are a big step up in competition and should handle the Buccaneers at home. I am going to feel like a fool if I lose against the Seahawks again, but the Packers are playing too well, so we’ll try fading Seattle one more time.
Both home teams look good in the Monday night slate. Sam Darnold has played some of the best football of his career lately for Minnesota, and the Falcons have not played well enough lately for me to trust them against my plucky Raiders.
Aaron’s Week 14 NFL Picks
I like big dogs and I cannot lie! I am taking the point in nine of the 13 games this week, and I am feeling good about it after going 9-7 in Week 13. It should have been 10-6, but Jameis Winston just could not stop throwing pick sixes. And even when Jameis stopped throwing pick sixes, he tossed a regular old interception in the end zone to ruin the backdoor cover. I am mad at him! But I am still going back to the Browns because we just saw them beat Pittsburgh a couple of weeks ago. I am gobbling up those six and a half points! I also can’t resist Chicago since its opponent the 49ers have gone 0-2 against the spread since they inexplicably lost to Seattle and I began fading them. The Raiders and Panthers have also been very plucky lately and continue to attract big spreads. Just look at what AOC did for the Las Vegas offense! I am even loving my Giants this week with Drew Lock under center for the second week in a row. Maybe he finally got some time with the first string offense. If he did, the Giants could have an upset in store for a New Orleans team playing outside of its cozy dome. As for a great favorite to back? The Bills are a juggernaut and have won five of their last six by more than a touchdown.
Aaron’s Week 13 NFL Picks
Yay! It’s Thanksgiving! I don’t have a lot of time to dive into the picks, but I am picking against the Giants because I cannot stand them anymore. They are becoming as big of a circus as the Jets. Maybe Drew Lock can make the game respectable, but I’m not so sure. He led a game-winning drive for Seattle against the Eagles last year, but he must be really bad in practice to make Brian Daboll want to play Tommy DeVito.
The Lions are turning into an automatic play until they prove otherwise. The Raiders missed the backdoor cover by half a freaking yard last Sunday, so I am backing them again because the Chiefs cannot cover against a paper bag. On Sunday, I really like the Buffalo pick because there is snow in the forecast and the 49ers are in a tailspin even if they get Brock Purdy back. In the final game of the week, backing Jameis Winston in another prime time underdog spot feels mandatory.
Aaron’s Week 12 NFL Picks
I feel lost. Another subpar performance in Week 11 has me questioning all my gambling instincts. Should I stick with my guns, or just fade myself? At 11 games under .500 for the season, I am going to trust myself and keep hacking away at this deficit!
The Steelers were an easy call as a home underdog last week. As a road favorite? Not so much. Give me Famous Jameis and the Browns.
Caleb Williams and the Bears couldn’t take advantage of the dead cat bounce that they got from firing an offensive coordinator. They played well but failed against Green Bay, and now they will be smothered by Minnesota’s defense.
They can’t make a spread high enough for Detroit. It would be great for my fantasy team if Jonathan Taylor could control the clock and keep the Colts in the game, but Indianapolis’ run game has been mediocre lately.
The Pats have been a rare bright spot against the spread for me since they got blown out by Jacksonville. New England barely failed to cover against the Rams, but I am sticking with Drake Maye and company with a touchdown and the hook in Miami.
Giants only getting three and a half with Tommy DeVito under center? This pick is as sharp as they come.