I went 7-8 in NFL picks during Week 6 to drop my record to 46-47 on the season. Fortunately, that is still good enough for second place in the prestigious ChabDog Sports Talk group. On the other hand, it is just one bad pick away from fourth place. Look at that logjam between myself, Eric, and Frank! Meanwhile, Abe is still a savant and poor Doggie is bringing up the rear.
I got off to a hot start last week with the Giants winning outright and the Jets covering in an ugly loss. It got bad after that, but I still could have finished above .500 for the week if Washington had just held onto the ball and kicked a field goal to go ahead by five instead of botching the handoff and costing me by survivor pool pick as well. The only good thing to come out of that game was Jayden Daniels scrapping together enough fantasy points to win a matchup for me. Shout out to the Chicago defense for forgetting Luke McCaffrey exists on that one play.
Anyway, time to move on to Week 7 and try to make a dent in Abe’s lead.
Steelers -5.5 at Bengals
Cincinnati traded for Joe Flacco last week, and while he wasn’t very impressive in the team’s loss to Green Bay, he did enough to cover the massive two-touchdown spread. The Bengals still stink, so I am fading them with the spread inside of a touchdown.
Rams -2.5 vs. Jaguars
I have read Jacksonville well in the last two weeks since they blew up my 49ers pick. This week, I foresee more pain for the Jags against another NFC West opponent. The Rams might be missing Puka Nacua in this London game, but that just means more balls for Davante Adams.
Saints +5.5 at Bears
This will be a letdown for Chicago after its big win over Washington. New Orleans has been bad on the road this year, but Spencer Rattler is looking more and more like a competent quarterback. The Bears could easily blow another coverage like they did with McCaffrey and allow a backdoor cover.
Dolphins +2.5 at Browns
Miami has an embarrassing 1-5 record, but it has not played embarrassing football since being blow out by Indianapolis in the opener. In Week 6, the Dolphins lost to the Chargers despite scoring a go-ahead touchdown in the final minute. In Week 5, they lost on a late touchdown to a Carolina team that is looking increasingly respectable. In Week 7, it’s time to get a dub. The weather is expected to be extremely windy, so stacking the box and letting Dillon Gabriel do something stupid will be key.
Patriots at Titans +7.5
Last week I said that the Raiders shouldn’t be favored by four and a half points against anyone and they beat Tennessee by 10. I am giving the Titans another chance even though their only win this season was the flukiest win I’ve ever seen. Fading them seems too square. I really hate this pick.
Raiders +12.5 at Chiefs
The Raiders lost to the Chiefs twice last year and it was only by a combined nine points.
Eagles at Vikings +1.5
Carson Wentz revenge game? This line is so sketchy that I had to pick Minnesota. Maybe the Birds are broken.
Panthers -1.5 at Jets
Carolina has won three out of four and might be good. It might not have come against the best competition, but this team has shown it can pound the rock with Rico Dowdle.
Giants +7.5 at Broncos
Homer pick! I will be very surprised if the Giants can pull off a repeat performance of last week on the road against a good defense. On the other hand, Denver’s offense has not been consistent, so staying within seven points is doable.
Colts at Chargers -1.5
The Chargers have underperformed for the last three weeks, and they could have lost three in a row if not for their last-minute comeback at Miami. That’s why I love this pick. All the squares will be picking the darling of the league plus the points.
Commanders at Cowboys +1.5
Cowboys score unlimited points at home and Dak Prescott’s connection with George Pickens continues to grow stronger.
Packers at Cardinals +6.5
Arizona’s offense looked pretty good with Jacoby Brissett leading the charge and Green Bay has been pretty awful since it’s 2-0 start that made everyone hand them the Vince Lombardi Trophy.
Falcons at 49ers -1.5
Give Atlanta credit. It has bounced back and won two straight since being shut out by Carolina. The Falcons will be very tough if they can continue to get great performances from Bijan Robinson and Drake London, both of whom looked unstoppable against Buffalo. Why am I picking San Francisco? I don’t trust Atlanta on the road yet and the Falcons will be a square pick after the big win on the national stage.
Buccaneers at Lions -5.5
I don’t know why this spread is more than three points and that scares me.
Texans +3.5 at Seahawks
Houston has won two straight over two very down bad teams. Are the Texans any good? This game will be a good measuring stick.