The Mets won another offseason title in 2024 when they signed Juan Soto to the largest contract in the history of professional sports. That is an awesome move and the Mets may become World Series contenders for years to come, but it won’t be only because of Soto. We’ve seen megastars struggle to qualify for the Postseason in baseball (most notably with Abe Miranda’s Anaheim Angels) and we’ve seen hyped Mets signings like Justin Verlander fail to convert offseason banners into real ones. What makes Soto different? Well, he might be a more talented slugger than the Mets have ever signed before with an on-base percentage above .400 in each one of his seven big league seasons. Most importantly, though, is the fact that Soto is joining a team that won a couple of Postseason series in 2024. He doesn’t have to be a savior, but I also can’t help but think that the Mets needed to do more over the winter to secure a bid in October.
If the Mets fall short this season, it will probably be because of the starting rotation. Two years ago, Kodai Senga and his Ghost Fork emerged as a star, but in 2024 he got hurt and missed 99 percent of the season. Fortunately, Sean Manaea put together a career year at age 32 and provided stability to the rotation alongside Luis Severino and Jose Quintana. Over the winter, the Mets brought back Manaea on a three-year deal, but they let Severino and Quintana walk while adding Frankie Montas, Griffin Canning, and Clay Holmes to replace them. Holmes was the Yankees’ closer last year, but he was demoted in October and hasn’t made a major league start since 2018.
Even with everyone healthy, I thought the 2025 rotation looked shaky with Senga seemingly made of glass and the Mets counting on Manaea to repeat his best year ever. Fast forward to the present, and Manaea is set to start the regular season on the injured list due to an oblique injury. Montas is also on the shelf with a strained lat, and I don’t feel good about the rotation at all. Senga needs to be the ace he was in 2023, David Peterson needs to build on his 2024 in which he posted a career-best 2.90 ERA despite a strikeout rate that shrunk to 7.51 per nine innings, and Clay Holmes needs to prove that he can be a mid-rotation starter after years of exclusively pitching out of the bullpen. That is a lot of question marks for the top three guys in the Mets’ rotation. Paul Blackburn should provide consistency at the back end, and Canning is fine for a fifth guy, but I think fans will miss having a horse like Jacob deGrom to turn to every fifth day.
.@_David_Peterson lookin' sharp 👀 pic.twitter.com/eWxzhMe7OG
— New York Mets (@Mets) March 4, 2025
The batting order figures to be the strength of the team with Francisco Lindor finally hitting like a superstar last year and Juan Soto hitting behind him. It took the Mets long enough, but they finally got a deal done with Pete Alonso, and he has shown he can be a feared power hitter even in a down season. If the Polar Bear can get back to hitting 40 home runs with a .260 average, he will look like a steal. I also think Brandon Nimmo will get on base more after a strange 2024 campaign in which he posted a BABIP below .300 for just the second time in his career. If some hits fall in for him, his walk rate is still good enough to get him to a .360 OBP, which will be useful wherever the Mets want to put him in the lineup. Mark Vientos should round out the top five of the order, but he could struggle if he doesn’t get his strikeouts under control. It will only be a matter of time before opposing pitchers spam outside breaking stuff against him. He needs to lay off the junk more and demand strikes.
The bottom of the order could get boosted from a Jeff McNeil resurgence or Francisco Alvarez refining his approach. The former top prospect has been exciting but wildly inconsistent over the past two seasons, while McNeil needs to rediscover his 2022 form after posting a career-high strikeout rate and career-low BABIP in 2024.
It will be tough for the Mets to top the magical Postseason run of 2024, especially with baseball’s final boss, the Los Angeles Dodgers, still standing in their way. For now, we’ll focus on getting ready for the regular season and winning a division title for the first time in a decade.